New York Jets @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **NY Jets (+7) over NEW ENGLAND

These teams met 5 weeks ago and the market closed between Patriots -5.5 and -6. New England won 25-6 due to a +4 turnover margin, but the Jets averaged 0.3 more yards per play. A flip in home field gets the market to Patriots by 7 for this game but neglects New York coming off a bye. Home field advantage changing between divisional opponents is worth about the same as an extra week of rest according to our numbers and a fair price would be New England to be favored by 6 points at most – and our model suggests that it should be much lower than that.

I think the ground game will be featured for each of these sides as the Jets look to limit Zach Wilson’s mistakes and the Patriots will look to provide some relief for Mac Jones against a Jets’ defense that has a 28.4% pressure rate (4th), after allowing a 35% pressure rate last week against Dallas. New England starting RT Trent Brown exited with a calf strain seven snaps into the season opener and it’s been a revolving door at right tackle since then, which will likely be an issue in this matchup as Jets edge defender John Franklin-Myers ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency.

Our model favors the Patriots by only 1.8 points (with a predicted total of 44.4) with the Jets coming off a bye and New England applies to a 9-61-1 ATS situation while the Jets apply to a 43-9 ATS bad team off a bye situation. New York is a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 at -115 odds or better and a 1-Star down to +6.5 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Patriots

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.83 40.00
Succ Pass Plays 41.1% 48.2%
Sack Rate 8.4% 5.7%
Int Rate 5.2% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 19.0% 16.8%
Big Pass Yards 42.2% 44.7%
NYPP 5.11 7.02

Rush

Rush Plays 20.17 31.00
RB YPR 3.46 4.06
Stuff Rate 20.2% 25.5%
Succ Rush Plays 52.3% 48.0%
Big Rush Yards 28.0% 48.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.45 4.12

Game

All Snaps 59.00 71.00
Early Down Succ 48.7% 50.4%
Succ Rate 45.0% 47.8%
Big Yards Rate 40.1% 46.3%
Yards Per Play 4.56 5.68
Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.90 29.07
Run Ratio 33.8% 44.1%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -10.07 10.07

Points 13.33 29.17

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	14 – 19 L	-6.88	37.2% / 47.2%	14.0% / 2.8%	2.7% / 0.0%	4.81 / 7.50	35.3% / 44.4%	11.8% / 29.6%	2.65 / 4.11	60 / 63	41.5% / 52.1%	36.7% / 46.0%	50.8% / 45.9%	4.20 / 6.05	0.0% / 1.6%	28.3% / 42.9%	0.00 / 0.00
2	NE	6 – 25 L	-10.53	35.1% / 36.4%	10.8% / 9.1%	12.1% / 0.0%	4.97 / 4.82	51.6% / 54.2%	29.0% / 20.8%	4.90 / 4.21	68 / 57	45.1% / 50.0%	42.6% / 43.9%	50.0% / 48.1%	4.94 / 4.56	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 42.1%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@DEN	0 – 26 L	-13.14	35.0% / 55.6%	12.5% / 7.4%	5.7% / 0.0%	2.98 / 8.26	53.8% / 43.2%	15.4% / 35.1%	3.31 / 3.27	53 / 64	47.2% / 51.9%	39.6% / 48.4%	28.6% / 53.1%	3.06 / 5.38	0.0% / 1.6%	24.5% / 57.8%	0.00 / 0.00
4	TEN	27 – 24 W	-1.09	45.7% / 41.1%	2.9% / 12.5%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.26 / 4.52	48.0% / 51.4%	36.0% / 18.9%	2.64 / 4.78	60 / 93	47.8% / 50.7%	46.7% / 45.2%	57.3% / 33.9%	5.92 / 4.62	0.0% / 0.0%	41.7% / 39.8%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@ATL	20 – 27 L	-9.52	41.2% / 54.3%	5.9% / 0.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	4.88 / 7.43	72.2% / 44.8%	11.1% / 17.2%	3.56 / 3.72	52 / 75	55.0% / 46.7%	51.9% / 50.7%	27.3% / 27.1%	4.42 / 6.00	0.0% / 2.7%	34.6% / 38.7%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@NE	13 – 54 L	-19.28	52.3% / 54.8%	4.5% / 2.4%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.39 / 9.60	52.9% / 50.0%	17.6% / 31.3%	3.65 / 4.63	61 / 74	55.6% / 50.8%	52.5% / 52.7%	26.3% / 69.8%	4.90 / 7.45	1.6% / 0.0%	27.9% / 43.2%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	MIA	16 – 17 L	-3.18	56.4% / 51.7%	0.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 3.7%	7.21 / 6.38	56.7% / 56.5%	13.3% / 30.4%	4.17 / 3.22	69 / 52	52.8% / 58.5%	56.5% / 53.8%	36.9% / 43.1%	5.88 / 4.98	2.9% / 0.0%	43.5% / 44.2%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@NYJ	25 – 6 W	10.53	36.4% / 35.1%	9.1% / 10.8%	0.0% / 12.1%	4.82 / 4.97	54.2% / 51.6%	20.8% / 29.0%	4.21 / 4.90	57 / 68	50.0% / 45.1%	43.9% / 42.6%	48.1% / 50.0%	4.56 / 4.94	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 45.6%	0.00 / 0.00
3	NO	13 – 28 L	-10.20	35.8% / 50.0%	3.8% / 12.5%	3.9% / 0.0%	4.74 / 4.58	41.2% / 50.0%	23.5% / 18.4%	2.88 / 3.74	70 / 62	37.0% / 53.2%	37.1% / 50.0%	28.8% / 9.3%	4.29 / 4.06	0.0% / 0.0%	24.3% / 61.3%	0.00 / 0.00
4	TB	17 – 19 L	-0.20	54.3% / 40.9%	8.7% / 2.3%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.41 / 5.93	25.0% / 53.3%	75.0% / 23.3%	-0.13 / 3.97	54 / 74	59.5% / 46.3%	50.0% / 45.9%	22.6% / 42.3%	5.44 / 5.14	1.9% / 0.0%	14.8% / 40.5%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@HST	25 – 22 W	-5.14	54.8% / 46.9%	3.2% / 9.4%	3.3% / 0.0%	7.29 / 9.16	56.7% / 20.8%	30.0% / 12.5%	4.20 / 2.79	61 / 56	57.1% / 29.7%	55.7% / 35.7%	38.9% / 47.8%	5.77 / 6.43	1.6% / 1.8%	49.2% / 42.9%	0.00 / 0.00
6	DAL	29 – 35 L	2.00	52.2% / 52.9%	8.7% / 0.0%	4.8% / 2.0%	9.35 / 8.73	51.9% / 35.5%	18.5% / 29.0%	4.44 / 3.94	50 / 82	57.5% / 50.8%	52.0% / 46.3%	56.4% / 39.7%	6.70 / 6.91	2.0% / 1.2%	54.0% / 37.8%	0.00 / 0.00
7	NYJ	54 – 13 W	19.28	54.8% / 52.3%	2.4% / 4.5%	0.0% / 4.8%	9.60 / 5.39	50.0% / 52.9%	31.3% / 17.6%	4.63 / 3.65	74 / 61	50.8% / 55.6%	52.7% / 52.5%	69.8% / 26.3%	7.45 / 4.90	0.0% / 1.6%	43.2% / 27.9%	0.00 / 0.00

New York Jets @

New England Patriots

Sun, Oct 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis