Game Analysis
Note: The Under in this game was released as a 2-Star Best Bet (Under 47.5) to subscribers on Monday and the line has since moved out of Best Bet range. I would just lean under at the current line.
Lean – Under (44.5) – NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) vs NY Jets
The Patriots will earn a first-round bye with a win and I expect them to employ the typical Belichick late-season methodical approach. New England had 47 carries last week as they historically play cautiously and focus on the ground game in the games leading up to the playoffs. The Patriots now have a 49% run play percentage in the last two weeks of the season during the Bill Belichick era, which is higher than any team in the league and 7 percentage points above their rush rate in weeks 1-15. The gap between New England’s rush rate in the first 14 games and the final 2 games is the largest in the league. The Patriots will look to pound the rock again with the ground game keeping the clock moving, especially with the passing attack trending downwards.
New England’s offense is more than a yard per play worse in the 4 games without Josh Gordon in the lineup this season and they now have major question marks at wide receiver with him suspended and Cordarrelle Patterson nursing a knee injury. Rob Gronkowski didn’t record a catch last week and was responsible for an interception. The All-Pro tight end is averaging less than 2 yards per route run for the first time in his career and the Patriots will likely be conservative with his targets to ensure Gronkowski is at his best for the playoffs.
Jets’ top WR Robby Anderson has 3 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks since Sam Darnold returned to the lineup while averaging 10.1 yards per target. However, I expect Anderson’s success to come to a halt lining up across from Stephon Gilmore, who’s surrendering only 0.74 yards per cover snap this season (6th). Darnold is struggling away from home this year, a common trend among rookie quarterbacks, as it is much more difficult to make the necessary adjustments at the line of scrimmage in the NFL in hostile environments. Darnold is gaining 6.8 yards per pass play at home, but just 5.3 yards per pass play on the road and it certainly won’t get easier on Sunday. There have been 11 teams to start a rookie quarterback against Bill Belichick in Foxboro and they have combined to average just 4.9 yards per play and 13.5 points.
To make matters worse, Darnold will be without James Carpenter and Brandon Shell on his offensive line, both ranking 22nd among guards and tackles respectively in pass blocking efficiency. Brent Qvale didn’t allow a pressure in first start last week filling in for Shell, but Trey Flowers ranks 10th in pass rush efficiency and should provide a significantly greater challenge than Green Bay’s edge rushers. The Jets rush offense ranks last in the league since Elijah McGuire took over as the lead back in week 14 and it is unlikely the ground game will provide relief for the rookie quarterback even against New England’s 28th-rated rush defense.
The total opened 46 and closed 43.5 in this same week 17 fixture last year with the Patriots defeating the Jets 26-6. We expect another low-scoring final game for the Patriots, as this game applies to a very reliable 717-513-16 late-season Under situation. The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 47 points or higher and a 1-Star down to 46 points. I would just lean under at the current line and I have no opinion on the side.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.3
38.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.2%
45.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
4.2%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
17.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.9%
43.6%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.7
28.3
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
31.1%
25.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.0%
43.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.9%
47.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
61.0
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
43.0%
48.7%
-
Succ Rate
40.6%
45.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
46.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.1
-
Run Ratio
43.8%
42.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.2
29.7
-
Game Control
-1.5
1.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.6
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.4%
47.8%
-
Sack Rate
3.5%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
23.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.6%
38.9%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.9
23.3
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
17.5%
18.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.3%
48.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.0%
49.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
67.5
61.9
-
Early Down Succ
54.0%
49.3%
-
Succ Rate
50.5%
47.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.5%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.3
-
Run Ratio
45.2%
37.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.8
-
Game Control
3.2
-3.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% /
44.2% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
9.6% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
32.6% /
37.5% |
9.3% /
25.0% |
4.0 /
2.5 |
66 /
68 |
53.8% /
51.0% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
55.1% /
37.9% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
65.2% /
23.5% |
40.7 /
23.0 |
| 2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% /
44.4% |
6.8% /
14.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
26.3% /
52.9% |
36.8% /
26.5% |
2.2 /
4.1 |
63 /
61 |
39.6% /
55.8% |
38.1% /
49.2% |
50.3% /
36.2% |
5.7 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
3.3% |
30.2% /
55.7% |
24.1 /
34.4 |
| 3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% /
36.6% |
6.1% /
9.8% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
43.3% /
31.4% |
3.6 /
3.9 |
63 /
76 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
42.9% /
39.5% |
22.4% /
32.3% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
46.1% |
23.2 /
33.3 |
| 4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% /
57.5% |
8.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
3.9 /
9.4 |
28.6% /
38.2% |
35.7% /
20.6% |
2.4 /
3.7 |
51 /
74 |
35.1% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
48.6% |
23.6% /
50.5% |
3.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
27.5% /
45.9% |
29.8 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% /
71.8% |
9.1% /
10.3% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
17.2 /
8.8 |
46.2% /
47.1% |
17.9% /
47.1% |
8.3 /
5.4 |
50 /
56 |
42.6% /
56.1% |
52.0% /
64.3% |
74.5% /
42.2% |
10.3 /
7.8 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
78.0% /
30.4% |
28.8 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% /
46.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
7.0% |
8.6 /
7.0 |
23.1% /
60.9% |
28.2% /
17.4% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
70 /
66 |
48.0% /
54.7% |
42.9% /
51.5% |
41.9% /
32.5% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
55.7% /
34.8% |
40.5 /
32.7 |
| 7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% /
34.1% |
6.7% /
2.4% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
37.5% /
24.0% |
33.3% /
44.0% |
3.0 /
3.6 |
69 /
66 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
50.2% /
58.0% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
37.9% |
27.3 /
41.4 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
36.7% /
45.2% |
3.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
7.0 |
20.8% /
52.9% |
37.5% /
14.7% |
2.4 /
5.3 |
54 /
65 |
30.8% /
51.9% |
29.6% /
49.2% |
20.3% /
46.3% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
52.3% |
22.0 /
28.5 |
| 9 |
@MIA |
6 – 13 L |
-3.2 |
34.9% /
42.9% |
9.3% /
14.3% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
38.1% /
24.1% |
28.6% /
24.1% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
64 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
35.9% /
33.3% |
41.8% /
15.3% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
50.9% |
18.4 /
32.4 |
| 10 |
BUF |
10 – 41 L |
-20.8 |
37.8% /
48.1% |
8.1% /
3.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
8.9 |
55.6% /
47.9% |
38.9% /
18.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
55 /
75 |
52.5% /
49.1% |
43.6% /
48.0% |
37.2% /
53.0% |
3.6 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
64.0% |
28.5 /
36.8 |
| 12 |
NE |
13 – 27 L |
-3.1 |
39.1% /
48.4% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
9.1 |
53.3% /
59.5% |
20.0% /
16.2% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
61 /
68 |
43.5% /
58.5% |
42.6% /
54.4% |
28.4% /
57.7% |
5.5 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.6% /
54.4% |
27.1 /
16.8 |
| 13 |
@TEN |
22 – 26 L |
8.4 |
40.6% /
36.8% |
6.3% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
3.9 /
7.2 |
42.4% /
34.8% |
33.3% /
17.4% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
65 /
61 |
46.0% /
43.8% |
41.5% /
36.1% |
28.9% /
69.6% |
4.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
37.7% |
32.3 /
25.3 |
| 14 |
@BUF |
27 – 23 W |
-4.8 |
48.0% /
37.5% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
5.4% |
6.8 /
4.8 |
30.0% /
45.2% |
33.3% /
19.4% |
2.7 /
5.7 |
55 /
71 |
37.8% /
38.6% |
38.2% /
40.8% |
38.4% /
39.4% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
54.5% /
43.7% |
47.1 /
27.2 |
| 15 |
HOU |
22 – 29 L |
-3.8 |
48.8% /
44.1% |
7.3% /
17.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.0 |
35.5% /
27.8% |
35.5% /
44.4% |
2.9 /
2.7 |
72 /
52 |
40.4% /
46.3% |
43.1% /
38.5% |
34.3% /
74.2% |
4.4 /
5.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
34.6% |
28.5 /
35.6 |
| 16 |
GB |
38 – 44 L |
6.7 |
62.2% /
50.8% |
5.4% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.0 |
35.0% /
61.9% |
35.0% /
14.3% |
2.4 /
6.1 |
57 /
80 |
56.8% /
56.3% |
52.6% /
53.8% |
37.3% /
49.0% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
35.1% /
26.3% |
34.1 /
25.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
HOU |
27 – 20 W |
10.6 |
48.8% /
29.7% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.3 |
38.7% /
45.7% |
9.7% /
25.7% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
72 /
72 |
47.4% /
43.1% |
44.4% /
37.5% |
38.0% /
37.4% |
5.4 /
4.5 |
2.8% /
1.4% |
43.1% /
48.6% |
25.4 /
35.4 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
20 – 31 L |
-13.1 |
48.6% /
57.8% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.9 /
8.4 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
12.0% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.2 |
62 /
70 |
47.9% /
46.3% |
43.5% /
50.0% |
38.3% /
42.7% |
4.9 /
6.9 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
40.3% /
35.7% |
30.1 /
25.7 |
| 3 |
@DET |
10 – 26 L |
-8.1 |
42.9% /
61.1% |
7.1% /
2.8% |
3.8% /
2.9% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
57.9% /
45.5% |
21.1% /
21.2% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
47 /
69 |
56.8% /
54.5% |
48.9% /
53.6% |
19.1% /
36.7% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.4% /
47.8% |
26.4 /
30.2 |
| 4 |
MIA |
38 – 7 W |
19.6 |
42.9% /
33.3% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
5.7% /
4.0% |
7.8 /
4.3 |
34.9% /
11.1% |
18.6% /
38.9% |
4.1 /
3.1 |
78 /
45 |
34.5% /
21.2% |
38.5% /
24.4% |
45.1% /
20.9% |
5.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.2% |
55.1% /
40.0% |
32.0 /
29.5 |
| 5 |
IND |
38 – 24 W |
12.6 |
88.2% /
76.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.9% /
5.3% |
10.0 /
9.1 |
44.0% /
47.6% |
20.0% /
4.8% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
59 /
60 |
65.5% /
49.2% |
69.5% /
66.7% |
26.8% /
28.7% |
7.5 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
42.4% /
35.0% |
35.5 /
27.9 |
| 6 |
KC |
43 – 40 W |
5.3 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
9.8 |
64.1% /
70.6% |
15.4% /
17.6% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
76 /
53 |
60.0% /
59.5% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
44.9% /
55.4% |
6.6 /
8.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
51.3% /
32.1% |
30.6 /
39.9 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
38 – 31 W |
3.8 |
62.2% /
43.1% |
2.7% /
3.9% |
2.8% /
4.1% |
7.4 /
6.3 |
63.0% /
52.0% |
22.2% /
12.0% |
4.0 /
5.4 |
64 /
76 |
66.0% /
44.1% |
62.5% /
46.1% |
29.7% /
44.6% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
32.9% |
25.6 /
32.9 |
| 8 |
@BUF |
25 – 6 W |
6.6 |
54.3% /
36.4% |
4.3% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.8 /
6.5 |
33.3% /
40.0% |
18.5% /
35.0% |
2.9 /
2.4 |
73 /
64 |
52.7% /
43.5% |
46.6% /
37.5% |
35.7% /
46.4% |
5.3 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
37.0% /
31.3% |
28.2 /
29.3 |
| 9 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
5.1 |
55.3% /
47.7% |
5.3% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.7 |
47.1% /
60.0% |
20.6% /
12.0% |
3.7 /
4.7 |
72 /
69 |
61.1% /
54.5% |
51.4% /
52.2% |
55.1% /
36.4% |
6.1 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.2% /
36.2% |
29.2 /
19.3 |
| 10 |
@TEN |
10 – 34 L |
-13.0 |
40.0% /
55.6% |
6.7% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.7 |
31.6% /
47.2% |
36.8% /
25.0% |
2.1 /
4.2 |
64 /
63 |
41.3% /
52.9% |
37.5% /
50.8% |
44.4% /
67.5% |
4.4 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.7% /
57.1% |
24.3 /
34.2 |
| 12 |
@NYJ |
27 – 13 W |
3.1 |
48.4% /
39.1% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
9.1 /
5.7 |
59.5% /
53.3% |
16.2% /
20.0% |
5.8 /
4.9 |
68 /
61 |
58.5% /
43.5% |
54.4% /
42.6% |
57.7% /
28.4% |
7.3 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.4% /
24.6% |
16.8 /
27.1 |
| 13 |
MIN |
24 – 10 W |
6.9 |
68.8% /
43.5% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
3.1% /
4.5% |
9.7 /
4.0 |
61.5% /
53.8% |
10.3% /
15.4% |
4.1 /
7.3 |
71 /
59 |
69.1% /
51.1% |
64.8% /
45.8% |
42.4% /
41.4% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.9% /
22.0% |
33.5 /
26.7 |
| 14 |
@MIA |
33 – 34 L |
2.0 |
53.3% /
45.8% |
4.4% /
20.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
9.3 |
33.3% /
71.4% |
23.3% /
14.3% |
2.6 /
9.0 |
75 /
45 |
42.4% /
65.8% |
45.3% /
57.8% |
28.0% /
58.5% |
5.6 /
9.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
46.7% |
35.3 /
25.3 |
| 15 |
@PIT |
10 – 17 L |
-4.6 |
45.9% /
55.6% |
2.7% /
5.6% |
2.8% /
5.9% |
7.4 /
6.1 |
57.9% /
53.6% |
5.3% /
14.3% |
5.1 /
5.7 |
56 /
64 |
55.6% /
62.0% |
50.0% /
54.7% |
42.4% /
60.8% |
6.6 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
43.8% |
25.1 /
18.0 |
| 16 |
BUF |
24 – 12 W |
10.8 |
38.5% /
41.5% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
8.0% /
4.9% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
46.9% /
38.9% |
12.2% /
5.6% |
5.6 /
4.0 |
75 /
59 |
50.9% /
47.8% |
44.0% /
40.7% |
60.5% /
36.0% |
5.2 /
4.9 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
65.3% /
30.5% |
33.5 /
29.9 |
New York Jets
@ 
New England Patriots