Game Analysis
Lean – Under (44) – NEW ENGLAND (-15.5) vs New York Jets
The Patriots will clinch home field with a win or a Pittsburgh loss. My numbers show approximately a 92% chance of the New England attaining the 1-seed, which affords them the ability to play more conservative, per usual this time of year. The Patriots run the ball more than any team in weeks 16 and 17 during the Bill Belichick era and I expect them to have success against a Jets defensive front potentially without both Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams. New England targets its running backs in the pass game at the 5th-highest rate in the league and I expect them to exploit New York’s defense surrendering 7.2 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th).
The Jets also will likely feature the ground game as Bryce Petty has looked terrible and the Patriots’ rush defense ranks 31st in my metrics. New York gained 5.5 yards per rush the last two weeks versus other soft rush defenses, New Orleans (24th) and the Chargers (30th), and I suspect they’ll move the ball well on the ground this week too. However, once New York falls behind the margin is likely to expand with Petty throwing the ball to try to catch up.
I’ll pass on the side but I like the under (43 or higher), as both offenses focusing on the run results in fewer plays, fewer yards, and thus fewer expected points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.2
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.5%
44.6%
-
Sack Rate
8.5%
4.6%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.2%
21.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.9%
44.1%
-
NYPP
5.8
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.1
29.1
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
30.6%
28.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.1%
40.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.7%
38.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
62.3
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
41.7%
44.3%
-
Succ Rate
39.4%
42.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.0%
43.1%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
27.6
-
Run Ratio
44.8%
43.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
28.6
-
Game Control
-1.1
1.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.9
39.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.1%
47.8%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.7%
20.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.5%
36.5%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
25.4
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
19.8%
18.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.3%
52.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.4%
40.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
67.1
64.7
-
Early Down Succ
54.6%
53.1%
-
Succ Rate
50.5%
49.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.8%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.4
25.9
-
Run Ratio
41.5%
39.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
25.0
-
Game Control
5.4
-5.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% /
43.3% |
2.5% /
6.7% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
25.0% /
33.3% |
31.3% /
24.4% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
56 /
75 |
35.9% /
37.7% |
33.9% /
37.3% |
26.5% /
68.1% |
3.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
60.0% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% /
64.3% |
13.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.2 |
61.5% /
40.7% |
19.2% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
55 /
55 |
53.7% /
48.8% |
52.7% /
52.7% |
43.0% /
56.1% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
49.1% |
27.1 /
35.7 |
| 3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% /
41.7% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
9.3 /
4.1 |
37.1% /
46.7% |
34.3% /
46.7% |
3.0 /
2.0 |
60 /
63 |
48.9% /
54.2% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
40.1% /
11.6% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
58.3% /
23.8% |
31.4 /
23.7 |
| 4 |
JAC |
23 – 20 W |
2.3 |
44.4% /
30.6% |
13.9% /
2.8% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
6.0 /
3.8 |
31.3% /
57.5% |
43.8% /
20.0% |
8.0 /
4.4 |
68 /
76 |
37.3% /
50.8% |
38.2% /
44.7% |
68.6% /
27.6% |
6.9 /
4.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
52.6% |
29.5 /
27.0 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
17 – 14 W |
1.7 |
51.5% /
45.9% |
9.1% /
2.7% |
3.3% /
5.6% |
5.4 /
7.5 |
19.0% /
45.5% |
33.3% /
18.2% |
1.8 /
4.2 |
54 /
70 |
45.9% /
46.3% |
38.9% /
45.7% |
32.1% /
40.1% |
4.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
38.9% /
47.1% |
29.0 /
30.1 |
| 6 |
NE |
17 – 24 L |
0.1 |
54.0% /
39.5% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
61.5% |
24.0% /
7.7% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
75 /
64 |
50.9% /
49.0% |
49.3% /
48.4% |
46.0% /
29.5% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
1.3% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
40.6% |
24.0 /
28.7 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
5.2 |
36.7% /
52.5% |
10.0% /
7.5% |
3.7% /
5.4% |
6.0 /
7.6 |
34.8% /
24.0% |
30.4% /
44.0% |
4.0 /
2.1 |
53 /
65 |
37.5% /
42.3% |
35.8% /
41.5% |
61.9% /
53.8% |
5.2 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
43.4% /
38.5% |
29.3 /
31.2 |
| 8 |
ATL |
20 – 25 L |
1.1 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
8.6% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
8.2 |
22.7% /
37.5% |
36.4% /
28.1% |
2.0 /
4.4 |
57 /
62 |
41.5% /
45.8% |
40.4% /
43.5% |
40.1% /
53.1% |
4.9 /
6.2 |
1.8% /
3.2% |
38.6% /
51.6% |
36.9 /
26.1 |
| 9 |
BUF |
34 – 21 W |
9.6 |
42.9% /
48.9% |
4.8% /
14.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
5.2 |
38.6% /
27.3% |
29.5% /
40.9% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
65 /
69 |
43.5% /
42.3% |
40.0% /
42.0% |
55.4% /
31.6% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
67.7% /
31.9% |
38.0 /
25.2 |
| 10 |
@TB |
10 – 15 L |
-3.4 |
28.9% /
40.0% |
13.3% /
2.9% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
4.9 /
5.2 |
21.1% /
28.1% |
42.1% /
28.1% |
2.9 /
2.8 |
64 /
67 |
27.7% /
32.7% |
26.6% /
34.3% |
46.2% /
23.2% |
4.3 /
4.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
29.7% /
47.8% |
19.0 /
36.0 |
| 12 |
CAR |
27 – 35 L |
-3.0 |
48.6% /
29.0% |
8.1% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
38.5% /
39.4% |
26.9% /
36.4% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.7% |
44.4% /
34.4% |
54.5% /
50.5% |
6.2 /
4.7 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.3% /
51.6% |
27.7 /
25.3 |
| 13 |
KC |
38 – 31 W |
-0.6 |
58.3% /
54.3% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
10.3 |
43.1% /
54.5% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
3.1 /
10.2 |
87 /
46 |
46.8% /
59.5% |
49.4% /
54.3% |
40.8% /
74.5% |
5.6 /
10.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
58.6% /
23.9% |
24.0 /
27.2 |
| 14 |
@DEN |
0 – 23 L |
-13.5 |
24.0% /
39.4% |
16.0% /
6.1% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
1.6 /
5.7 |
33.3% /
25.0% |
33.3% /
36.1% |
2.5 /
2.4 |
49 /
69 |
33.3% /
28.6% |
28.6% /
31.9% |
11.9% /
26.3% |
2.1 /
4.0 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
49.0% /
52.2% |
21.2 /
40.5 |
| 15 |
@NO |
19 – 31 L |
-6.4 |
30.0% /
50.0% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
5.1% /
2.8% |
4.3 /
7.9 |
46.4% /
41.4% |
14.3% /
20.7% |
4.4 /
4.6 |
68 /
65 |
38.5% /
48.1% |
36.8% /
46.2% |
44.9% /
53.0% |
4.3 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
41.2% /
44.6% |
25.9 /
31.3 |
| 16 |
LAC |
7 – 14 L |
-4.2 |
32.3% /
40.0% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
7.3 |
33.3% /
40.0% |
30.0% /
33.3% |
6.6 /
3.0 |
61 /
70 |
37.0% /
41.8% |
32.8% /
40.0% |
48.5% /
48.0% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
42.9% |
26.4 /
16.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% /
60.5% |
7.7% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.3 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
3.5 /
5.7 |
75 /
71 |
46.4% /
63.5% |
41.3% /
52.1% |
54.8% /
53.7% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
48.0% /
46.5% |
27.8 /
25.5 |
| 2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% /
51.1% |
4.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.6 /
7.7 |
51.6% /
47.1% |
22.6% /
11.8% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
72 /
62 |
58.3% /
54.2% |
56.9% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
48.3% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.4% |
27.5 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% /
48.6% |
12.5% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.4 /
8.3 |
45.0% /
56.3% |
30.0% /
15.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
60 /
67 |
46.8% /
54.7% |
46.7% /
52.2% |
52.3% /
38.8% |
6.6 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.8% |
28.8 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% /
61.3% |
6.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
9.8 |
73.7% /
51.7% |
21.1% /
20.7% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
67 /
60 |
66.7% /
54.9% |
64.2% /
56.7% |
22.0% /
48.0% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
28.4% /
48.3% |
26.1 /
26.7 |
| 5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% /
48.9% |
7.0% /
4.3% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
47.8% /
55.0% |
17.4% /
20.0% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
67 |
53.7% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
50.7% |
24.6% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
29.9% |
27.7 /
27.4 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% /
54.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
7.7% /
24.0% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
64 /
75 |
49.0% /
50.9% |
48.4% /
49.3% |
29.5% /
46.0% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
40.6% /
33.3% |
28.7 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% /
58.8% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
56.4% /
54.5% |
12.8% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
5.5 |
70 /
56 |
57.7% /
65.9% |
52.9% /
57.1% |
38.4% /
26.8% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
39.3% |
28.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
6.0% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
43.8% /
66.7% |
28.1% /
19.0% |
3.0 /
7.5 |
82 /
51 |
46.8% /
60.0% |
47.6% /
54.9% |
21.3% /
38.7% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
41.2% |
30.5 /
20.5 |
| 10 |
@DEN |
41 – 16 W |
14.7 |
65.8% /
39.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.8 /
6.7 |
55.2% /
44.8% |
13.8% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
67 /
62 |
67.9% /
40.0% |
61.2% /
41.9% |
32.1% /
46.2% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.3% /
46.8% |
37.9 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@OAK |
33 – 8 W |
15.9 |
56.1% /
45.3% |
9.8% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
8.1 /
4.4 |
55.0% /
76.2% |
25.0% /
14.3% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
61 /
74 |
60.4% /
59.6% |
55.7% /
54.1% |
40.2% /
24.4% |
6.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
8.1% |
32.8% /
28.4% |
23.1 /
23.0 |
| 12 |
MIA |
35 – 17 W |
13.1 |
44.8% /
47.5% |
3.4% /
17.5% |
3.6% /
6.1% |
7.6 /
3.9 |
42.9% /
42.1% |
16.7% /
31.6% |
4.8 /
3.5 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
51.1% |
43.7% /
45.8% |
69.4% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
59.2% /
32.2% |
31.6 /
25.9 |
| 13 |
@BUF |
23 – 3 W |
9.1 |
54.5% /
18.4% |
9.1% /
10.5% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
7.4 /
2.2 |
40.5% /
69.2% |
18.9% /
11.5% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
70 /
64 |
51.9% /
41.7% |
47.1% /
39.1% |
39.1% /
44.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
40.6% |
29.3 /
23.7 |
| 14 |
@MIA |
20 – 27 L |
-7.4 |
33.3% /
45.0% |
4.4% /
5.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.1 |
30.0% /
40.6% |
40.0% /
21.9% |
2.5 /
3.8 |
55 /
72 |
40.9% /
50.0% |
32.7% /
43.1% |
56.9% /
35.3% |
4.5 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
18.2% /
44.4% |
24.2 /
28.8 |
| 15 |
@PIT |
27 – 24 W |
-2.6 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
6.3% |
2.9% /
3.3% |
7.6 /
8.4 |
57.1% /
51.6% |
9.5% /
16.1% |
3.8 /
4.6 |
58 /
63 |
59.1% /
46.8% |
51.7% /
50.8% |
44.2% /
39.0% |
6.2 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
49.2% |
23.1 /
26.6 |
| 16 |
BUF |
37 – 16 W |
2.7 |
56.7% /
40.9% |
6.7% /
13.6% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
5.5 |
59.0% /
54.2% |
7.7% /
25.0% |
5.0 /
3.5 |
69 /
68 |
63.0% /
46.9% |
58.0% /
45.6% |
33.7% /
52.5% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
56.5% /
35.3% |
28.5 /
24.8 |
New York Jets
@ 
New England Patriots