New York Jets @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Dec 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 349
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -17.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Jets (+17.5) over LA RAMS

Sam Darnold has not had more than 230 passing yards in a game this year and now he will face the best pass defense in the NFL. The Rams had six sacks last week and are set up to dominate up front again on Sunday. Aaron Donald will take advantage of New York’s offensive line missing RG Greg Van Roten (foot), the only Jets starter with a pressure rate surrendered below 6%.

Sean McVay does not want to put the game in Jared Goff’s hands and he won’t need to this week as a huge favorite. Goff has only had more than 35 passing attempts in five games this season compared to 11 such games in 2019. The Rams ground game ranks 6th in our metrics and I expect to see a heavy dose of Cam Akers. Goff should have time when he does drop back as LG David Edwards ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and he will limit interior defender Quinnen Williams (10th in pass rushing efficiency).

Our model favors the Rams by just 15.1 points, with a predicted total of 42.6 points, and the Jets apply to a 73-32 ATS big underdog situation that plays on horrible teams (win percentage of .125 or less).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Rams
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.6 39.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 38.7% 55.3%
  • Sack Rate 8.2% 4.0%
  • Int Rate 3.3% 2.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.9% 15.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.3% 33.9%
  • NYPP 5.1 7.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.3 29.2
  • RB YPR 3.8 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 19.9% 23.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 43.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.8% 49.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 57.9 68.2
  • Early Down Succ 45.8% 52.2%
  • Succ Rate 42.9% 50.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.3% 40.3%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 29.4
  • Run Ratio 42.2% 43.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.7 31.1
  • Game Control -8.6 8.6
 
  • Points 14.1 30.2
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