New York Jets @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Nov 22
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 477
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -9.5, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *NY Jets (+9) over LA CHARGERS

Lean – Under 46.5

Joe Flacco averaged 9.9 yards per pass play in his first game with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains calling plays and having a fully healthy wide receiver group of Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder all on the field together. Crowder is averaging 2.32 yards per route run in the slot and he could be particularly dangerous in this game against backup Tevaughn Campbell, who is taking on a major role because the Chargers traded starting nickelback Desmond King. A key cause of New York’s poor offense this year is way too many predictable early down runs, but the new play calling helps and running the ball on early downs might now be so bad for Jets against a Chargers rush defense that ranks 31st in the league.

Justin Herbert has targeted Keenan Allen more than twice as much as any other wide receiver since taking over as the starter in week 2, but New York’s defense has an answer for the Pro Bowl wide receiver. Brian Poole was on pace for his second-straight season ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed per cover snap in the slot but he was announced as out for the rest of the season after this play was released earlier in the week. That opens things up for Allen on the inside. C Dan Feeney ranks 26th out of 30 qualifying centers in pass blocking efficiency and he could struggle if the Jets get Quinnen Williams back after the interior defender missed the last game with a hamstring injury.

Our model favors the Chargers by only 7.3 points with Poole out, with a predicted total of 44.0 points, and the Jets apply to 191-85-6 ATS big road dog situation and a 51-9-1 ATS situation that plays on winless teams coming off a competitive loss. Also, bad teams tend to be good coming out of their bye week, as teams that are 3 games or more below .500 straight up and have a spread win percentage of less than .333 are 63-32 ATS after their bye week, including 37-9 ATS as underdogs of 6 points or more. The Jets would now be just a Strong Opinion for those that didn’t play it earlier in the week as a Best Bet.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Chargers
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.7 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.7% 55.9%
  • Sack Rate 8.0% 3.3%
  • Int Rate 3.1% 2.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.9% 16.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.6% 36.4%
  • NYPP 4.9 7.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.6 29.7
  • RB YPR 3.6 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 20.7% 22.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 53.0% 42.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.2% 51.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 59.2 66.4
  • Early Down Succ 48.8% 52.6%
  • Succ Rate 44.6% 49.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.8% 42.9%
  • Yards Per Play 4.6 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 30.0
  • Run Ratio 40.0% 45.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.3 31.1
  • Game Control -8.3 8.3
 
  • Points 13.4 29.8
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