New York Jets @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Nov 1
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 261
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -19.5, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Jets (+19.5) over KANSAS CITY

Lean – Over (49)

It’s not often we see spreads this big in the NFL, but we actually saw two even bigger favorites just last year. Dallas covered as a 22.5-point favorite against Miami and New England failed to cover favored by 22 over the Jets. Overall, NFL favorites of more than 17 points are just 5-15 ATS since 1996 and games that look like huge mismatches tend to be more competitive than the market thinks they’ll be. In fact, from week 7 on when the total average scoring margin differential of two teams is more than 20 points the lesser team is 111-57 ATS since 1992 (Jets have been outscored by 16.9 points per game and KC is +10.7 ppg in average scoring margin). Kansas City, meanwhile, applies to a 46-130-3 ATS big favorite letdown situation and winless teams (0-5 or worse) with a spread win percentage of .200 or worse are 47-13-2 ATS as an underdog against a non-division opponent (division opponents are more likely to get up for a horrible team).

Kansas City’s blowout win in Denver last week was a little deceptive as the Chiefs got a pick-six and a kick return touchdown. Kansas City ended up scoring 43 points on just 286 yards of offense and they likely would’ve conceded more points had they not benefited from four Broncos turnovers.

The Jets also may have been flattered by the final score last week as the Bills managed only 18 points and failed to score a touchdown on all five of their Redzone trips. However, New York was outgained by more than 2 yards per play and managed just 4 yards in the second half. Sam Darnold was a horrific 7-for-18 for 59 yards and two inceptions from a clean pocket, but this week he should get his best wide receiver, Jamison Crowder, back on the field. Crowder leads the league averaging 2.49 yards per route run in the slot and makes a significant difference for the Jets’ offense when he’s playing.

Our model favors the Chiefs by just 17.0 points, with a predicted total of 51.7 points, and the situation strongly favors the Jets.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Chiefs


  • Pass Plays 34.0 34.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.4% 57.5%
  • Sack Rate 5.8% 5.4%
  • Int Rate 4.4% 1.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.1% 13.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.6% 25.1%
  • NYPP 5.1 7.2


  • Rush Plays 24.3 30.7
  • RB YPR 3.5 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 21.6% 30.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.9% 31.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 17.6% 61.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.4


  • All Snaps 58.3 65.3
  • Early Down Succ 47.7% 44.5%
  • Succ Rate 42.9% 44.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.8% 40.6%
  • Yards Per Play 4.5 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.0 31.8
  • Run Ratio 41.1% 48.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 22.6 33.7
  • Game Control -13.2 13.2
  • Points 12.3 31.3
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