New York Jets @

Houston Texans

Sun, Nov 28
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 253
Odds: Houston Texans -2.5, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *NY Jets Team Total Over (21 -115)

Strong Opinion 6 pt Teaser – NY Jets (+8.5) with Miami (+7.5) at +7.5 or more

New York (+2.5) over HOUSTON

Zach Wilson is back under center for New York, and this will be by far the softest defense he has gone against in his young career. The Falcons are the only team Wilson faced in his first six starts that aren’t ranked above average in yards allowed per pass play. Houston’s defense is surrendering 7.0 yppp (26th) and Wilson is in line for his best game of the year. Texans nickelback Tavierre Thomas is conceding a league-low 0.36 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will limit Jamieson Crowder on the inside but the other Jets receivers should be consistently open. I expect Wilson to look deep for WR Elijah Moore as 26% of the rookie’s targets have had 20+ air yards this season.

DE John Franklin-Myers led the New York’s defense with six pressures last week and he could be even better in this game across from backup right tackle Charlie Heck. Tyrod Taylor will not have time to operate and will likely look to his receivers underneath, as he attempted just 29% of his passes beyond the sticks against the Titans.

Our model favors the Jets by 5.2 points with a predicted total of 48.3 points. The Jets’ team total Over 21 at -120 odds is a 1-Star Best Bet and we’ll use the Jets (+8.5) as part of a Strong Opinion teaser with Miami +7.5.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Texans
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 42.70 37.30
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 51.7%
  • Sack Rate 6.3% 5.4%
  • Int Rate 4.5% 0.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.5% 17.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.3% 46.9%
  • NYPP 6.06 7.57



Rush


  • Rush Plays 20.90 28.90
  • RB YPR 3.78 4.56
  • Stuff Rate 23.9% 26.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 54.1% 49.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.0% 52.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.78 4.57




Game

  • All Snaps 63.60 66.20
  • Early Down Succ 52.3% 53.0%
  • Succ Rate 49.1% 50.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.8% 48.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.31 6.26
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.26 29.00
  • Run Ratio 32.9% 43.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -9.67 9.67
 
  • Points 17.80 32.00
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