Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *NY Jets Team Total Over (21 -115)
Strong Opinion 6 pt Teaser – NY Jets (+8.5) with Miami (+7.5) at +7.5 or more
New York (+2.5) over HOUSTON
Zach Wilson is back under center for New York, and this will be by far the softest defense he has gone against in his young career. The Falcons are the only team Wilson faced in his first six starts that aren’t ranked above average in yards allowed per pass play. Houston’s defense is surrendering 7.0 yppp (26th) and Wilson is in line for his best game of the year. Texans nickelback Tavierre Thomas is conceding a league-low 0.36 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will limit Jamieson Crowder on the inside but the other Jets receivers should be consistently open. I expect Wilson to look deep for WR Elijah Moore as 26% of the rookie’s targets have had 20+ air yards this season.
DE John Franklin-Myers led the New York’s defense with six pressures last week and he could be even better in this game across from backup right tackle Charlie Heck. Tyrod Taylor will not have time to operate and will likely look to his receivers underneath, as he attempted just 29% of his passes beyond the sticks against the Titans.
Our model favors the Jets by 5.2 points with a predicted total of 48.3 points. The Jets’ team total Over 21 at -120 odds is a 1-Star Best Bet and we’ll use the Jets (+8.5) as part of a Strong Opinion teaser with Miami +7.5.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.70
37.30
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
51.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
5.4%
-
Int Rate
4.5%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.5%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.3%
46.9%
-
NYPP
6.06
7.57
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.90
28.90
-
RB YPR
3.78
4.56
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
26.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.1%
49.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.0%
52.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.78
4.57
Game
-
All Snaps
63.60
66.20
-
Early Down Succ
52.3%
53.0%
-
Succ Rate
49.1%
50.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.8%
48.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.31
6.26
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.26
29.00
-
Run Ratio
32.9%
43.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-9.67
9.67
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.80
36.40
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.7%
51.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
3.4%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.6%
17.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.7%
38.6%
-
NYPP
5.59
7.03
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.20
29.70
-
RB YPR
2.93
4.59
-
Stuff Rate
26.9%
26.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.4%
49.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
25.4%
47.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.16
4.49
Game
-
All Snaps
59.00
66.10
-
Early Down Succ
42.3%
53.9%
-
Succ Rate
40.7%
50.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.2%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.59
5.89
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.40
29.04
-
Run Ratio
41.0%
44.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-4.37
4.37
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CAR |
14 – 19 L |
-6.88 |
37.2% / 47.2% |
14.0% / 2.8% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
4.81 / 7.50 |
35.3% / 44.4% |
11.8% / 29.6% |
2.65 / 4.11 |
60 / 63 |
41.5% / 52.1% |
36.7% / 46.0% |
50.8% / 45.9% |
4.20 / 6.05 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
28.3% / 42.9% |
23.00 / 36.75 |
2 |
NE |
6 – 25 L |
-10.53 |
35.1% / 36.4% |
10.8% / 9.1% |
12.1% / 0.0% |
4.97 / 4.82 |
51.6% / 54.2% |
29.0% / 20.8% |
4.90 / 4.21 |
68 / 57 |
45.1% / 50.0% |
42.6% / 43.9% |
50.0% / 48.1% |
4.94 / 4.56 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 42.1% |
24.58 / 40.00 |
3 |
@DEN |
0 – 26 L |
-13.14 |
35.0% / 55.6% |
12.5% / 7.4% |
5.7% / 0.0% |
2.98 / 8.26 |
53.8% / 43.2% |
15.4% / 35.1% |
3.31 / 3.27 |
53 / 64 |
47.2% / 51.9% |
39.6% / 48.4% |
28.6% / 53.1% |
3.06 / 5.38 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
24.5% / 57.8% |
25.64 / 38.64 |
4 |
TEN |
27 – 24 W |
-1.09 |
45.7% / 41.1% |
2.9% / 12.5% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
8.26 / 4.52 |
48.0% / 51.4% |
36.0% / 18.9% |
2.64 / 4.78 |
60 / 93 |
47.8% / 50.7% |
46.7% / 45.2% |
57.3% / 33.9% |
5.92 / 4.62 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.7% / 39.8% |
27.00 / 28.15 |
5 |
@ATL |
20 – 27 L |
-9.52 |
41.2% / 54.3% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
4.88 / 7.43 |
72.2% / 44.8% |
11.1% / 17.2% |
3.56 / 3.72 |
52 / 75 |
55.0% / 46.7% |
51.9% / 50.7% |
27.3% / 27.1% |
4.42 / 6.00 |
0.0% / 2.7% |
34.6% / 38.7% |
28.11 / 29.20 |
7 |
@NE |
13 – 54 L |
-19.28 |
52.3% / 54.8% |
4.5% / 2.4% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
5.39 / 9.60 |
52.9% / 50.0% |
17.6% / 31.3% |
3.65 / 4.63 |
61 / 74 |
55.6% / 50.8% |
52.5% / 52.7% |
26.3% / 69.8% |
4.90 / 7.45 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
27.9% / 43.2% |
25.64 / 35.27 |
8 |
CIN |
34 – 31 W |
-1.33 |
66.7% / 44.7% |
3.9% / 7.9% |
4.1% / 2.9% |
8.12 / 7.29 |
59.3% / 56.3% |
25.9% / 43.8% |
3.59 / 2.56 |
78 / 54 |
66.7% / 52.4% |
64.1% / 48.1% |
21.4% / 48.6% |
6.55 / 5.89 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
34.6% / 29.6% |
27.50 / 39.67 |
9 |
@IND |
30 – 45 L |
-13.38 |
50.0% / 64.5% |
3.7% / 3.2% |
1.9% / 0.0% |
7.37 / 8.77 |
57.1% / 50.0% |
19.0% / 16.7% |
4.19 / 8.67 |
75 / 61 |
51.7% / 60.4% |
52.0% / 57.4% |
24.2% / 58.3% |
6.48 / 8.72 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
28.0% / 49.2% |
20.45 / 29.00 |
10 |
BUF |
17 – 45 L |
-18.89 |
41.7% / 66.7% |
2.1% / 6.7% |
8.5% / 3.6% |
6.17 / 11.67 |
50.0% / 66.7% |
40.9% / 25.0% |
3.18 / 5.79 |
70 / 54 |
48.1% / 69.6% |
44.3% / 66.7% |
33.4% / 60.6% |
5.23 / 9.06 |
1.4% / 1.9% |
31.4% / 44.4% |
25.58 / 33.69 |
11 |
MIA |
17 – 24 L |
-2.71 |
53.7% / 61.8% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.78 / 8.03 |
61.1% / 39.4% |
16.7% / 30.3% |
5.67 / 3.48 |
59 / 67 |
58.1% / 49.1% |
55.9% / 50.7% |
53.4% / 32.2% |
6.44 / 5.79 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
30.5% / 49.3% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
JAX |
37 – 21 W |
14.37 |
55.9% / 38.5% |
2.9% / 1.9% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
8.50 / 6.13 |
48.8% / 62.5% |
19.5% / 18.8% |
3.90 / 4.75 |
75 / 68 |
50.9% / 47.3% |
52.0% / 44.1% |
46.6% / 38.7% |
5.99 / 5.81 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.7% / 23.5% |
33.43 / 21.36 |
2 |
@CLV |
21 – 31 L |
-2.85 |
50.0% / 73.9% |
3.3% / 8.7% |
3.4% / 4.8% |
7.33 / 8.65 |
39.3% / 50.0% |
35.7% / 26.5% |
2.93 / 4.59 |
58 / 57 |
41.9% / 63.8% |
44.8% / 59.6% |
40.8% / 39.6% |
5.21 / 6.23 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
48.3% / 59.6% |
23.67 / 36.30 |
3 |
CAR |
9 – 24 L |
-6.14 |
40.6% / 45.9% |
12.5% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.72 / 7.84 |
35.3% / 48.5% |
29.4% / 30.3% |
2.47 / 3.55 |
49 / 70 |
47.4% / 50.0% |
38.8% / 47.1% |
14.3% / 48.9% |
3.94 / 5.81 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.7% / 47.1% |
26.22 / 24.80 |
4 |
@BUF |
0 – 40 L |
-15.47 |
29.2% / 61.3% |
12.5% / 3.2% |
19.0% / 3.3% |
2.54 / 8.10 |
27.8% / 62.5% |
22.2% / 17.5% |
2.67 / 4.98 |
42 / 71 |
33.3% / 67.9% |
28.6% / 62.0% |
16.3% / 45.3% |
2.60 / 6.34 |
2.4% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 56.3% |
30.92 / 39.17 |
5 |
NE |
22 – 25 L |
5.14 |
46.9% / 54.8% |
9.4% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
9.16 / 7.29 |
20.8% / 56.7% |
12.5% / 30.0% |
2.79 / 4.20 |
56 / 61 |
29.7% / 57.1% |
35.7% / 55.7% |
47.8% / 38.9% |
6.43 / 5.77 |
1.8% / 1.6% |
42.9% / 49.2% |
27.22 / 33.33 |
6 |
@IND |
3 – 31 L |
-12.03 |
51.1% / 40.9% |
4.4% / 9.1% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
5.09 / 9.73 |
34.5% / 30.8% |
34.5% / 26.9% |
4.28 / 6.69 |
74 / 48 |
41.8% / 36.1% |
44.6% / 35.4% |
24.5% / 65.5% |
4.77 / 8.08 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
39.2% / 54.2% |
23.55 / 25.00 |
7 |
@ARZ |
5 – 31 L |
-9.96 |
29.4% / 56.3% |
5.9% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
3.47 / 7.03 |
33.3% / 45.9% |
20.0% / 29.7% |
2.80 / 4.65 |
49 / 69 |
39.4% / 53.8% |
30.6% / 50.7% |
19.8% / 40.6% |
3.27 / 5.75 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
30.6% / 53.6% |
32.82 / 26.08 |
8 |
LA |
22 – 38 L |
-18.65 |
45.5% / 54.3% |
11.4% / 2.9% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
6.34 / 8.63 |
50.0% / 61.3% |
35.7% / 12.9% |
3.14 / 5.32 |
58 / 66 |
52.3% / 64.2% |
46.6% / 57.6% |
46.0% / 54.3% |
5.57 / 7.08 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
24.1% / 47.0% |
26.69 / 30.55 |
9 |
@MIA |
9 – 17 L |
-6.62 |
40.8% / 48.9% |
10.2% / 8.5% |
6.8% / 4.7% |
4.06 / 4.57 |
33.3% / 28.0% |
16.7% / 44.0% |
4.06 / 1.88 |
67 / 72 |
43.2% / 40.4% |
38.8% / 41.7% |
23.0% / 7.2% |
4.06 / 3.64 |
3.0% / 2.8% |
26.9% / 34.7% |
31.50 / 31.75 |
11 |
@TEN |
22 – 13 W |
8.51 |
41.7% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
0.0% / 7.7% |
4.46 / 5.87 |
34.2% / 48.0% |
36.8% / 32.0% |
2.18 / 4.12 |
62 / 79 |
36.4% / 53.4% |
37.1% / 49.4% |
0.0% / 23.7% |
3.06 / 5.32 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
61.3% / 31.6% |
0.00 / 0.00 |