Game Analysis

Lean – Under (43.5) – DENVER (-2.5) vs NY Jets

· Russell Wilson has not been the problem in Denver as he’s averaging 0.22 EPA/play (5th). However, Wilson has gone against a soft set of opposing secondaries. The Raiders, Commanders, Dolphins, and Bears all rank below average in yards allowed per pass play. The Jets will be a step up in class and have answers to Wilson’s main options.

· Jerry Jeudy leads the Broncos averaging 0.20 EPA/target but New York nickelback Michael Carter is allowing a league-low 0.29 yards per cover snap in the slot.

· The Broncos are targeting running backs on 27.3% of passes (2nd-highest) but the screen game won’t be there for Wilson as the Jets are conceding a 38% pass success rate to running backs (9th). Quincy Williams leads all linebackers with 3 pass breakups.

· New York interior defenders Quinton Jefferson and Quinnen Williams rank 8th and 11th in pass-rushing efficiency but they will be limited by Denver’s guards and center. The Broncos’ interior offensive line is responsible for just 33% of the pressures, the lowest among all interior offensive lines.

· Jets edge defender John Franklin-Myers ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will be a handful for RT Mike McGlinchey, who has surrendered 13 pressures (9th-most).

· I think everyone is getting a little too excited about Zach Wilson’s game last Sunday night. He had just a 36% success rate, which ranked 28th out of the 32 week 4 quarterbacks.

· Denver’s defense has been awful, but they will get back three-time All-Pro safety Justin Simmons as well as linebackers Josey Jewell Frank Clark, and Baron Browning. Simmons and Clark are worth 0.7 points according to our numbers.

· Our model favors the Broncos by 3.7 points, with a predicted total of 41.0 points.