New York Jets @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The Over has moved out of Best Bet range but is a Strong Opinion Over 41.5 points.

2-Star Best Bet – OVER (41) – DENVER (-10.5) over NY Jets

Jets’ QB Zach Wilson is averaging only 4.9 yards per pass play, but I expect the rookie to improve and he will likely finish the year around 5.5 yppp. For reference, Joe Burrow averaged 5.6 yppp last season and Tua Tagovailoa averaged 5.4 yppp. There’s a good chance Wilson will have an extra weapon this week with WR Jamison Crowder expected to make his season debut. Crowder is worth nearly a half point by our metrics. Backup LT George Fant ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and has been solid replacing Mekhi Becton. Edge rusher Bradley Chubb (worth 0.7 points) had arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur and is now out about seven to eight weeks. Not having a heavy pass rush coming from both sides will certainly help Wilson.

Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater is averaging 9.6 air yards per attempt (5th) and I expect him to look deep as Jets’ starting safety Lamarcus Joyner suffered a torn tendon in his arm in week 1. Broncos’ receiver Courtland Sutton had a career high 159 yards last week and he should cause problems for rookie CB Brandin Echols.

Our model favors the Broncos by 8.2 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, and the Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 41 points up to -115 odds and a Strong Opinion Over 41.5 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Broncos

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.0 34.5
Succ Pass Plays 36.2% 41.8%
Sack Rate 12.4% 5.9%
Int Rate 7.4% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 22.9% 11.9%
Big Pass Yards 48.7% 46.2%
NYPP 5.8 6.7

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 25.5
RB YPR 3.6 4.2
Stuff Rate 20.4% 25.2%
Succ Rush Plays 43.5% 49.3%
Big Rush Yards 43.6% 47.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.0 60.0
Early Down Succ 43.3% 51.0%
Succ Rate 39.7% 44.9%
Big Yards Rate 50.4% 47.0%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 29.6
Run Ratio 37.0% 42.5%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -8.7 8.7

Points 10.0 22.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	14 – 19 L	-6.9	37.2% / 47.2%	14.0% / 2.8%	2.7% / 0.0%	6.0 / 7.8	35.3% / 44.4%	11.8% / 29.6%	2.6 / 4.1	60 / 63	41.5% / 52.1%	36.7% / 46.0%	50.8% / 45.9%	5.1 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	28.3% / 42.9%	0.0 / 0.0
2	NE	6 – 25 L	-10.5	35.1% / 36.4%	10.8% / 9.1%	12.1% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.6	51.6% / 54.2%	29.0% / 20.8%	4.9 / 4.2	68 / 57	45.1% / 50.0%	42.6% / 43.9%	50.0% / 48.1%	5.3 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 42.1%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	27 – 13 W	4.9	52.6% / 48.7%	5.3% / 5.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 6.8	39.3% / 45.0%	21.4% / 20.0%	5.9 / 3.0	66 / 59	45.7% / 47.7%	47.0% / 47.5%	34.7% / 30.3%	6.5 / 5.5	1.5% / 1.7%	42.4% / 33.9%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@JAX	23 – 13 W	3.4	51.4% / 32.4%	8.1% / 2.9%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.9 / 3.5	46.7% / 50.0%	33.3% / 18.8%	3.2 / 4.7	67 / 50	56.9% / 36.8%	49.3% / 38.0%	34.9% / 42.5%	6.3 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	44.8% / 32.0%	0.0 / 0.0

New York Jets @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Sep 26

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis