New York Jets @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Dec 10
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 123
Odds: Denver Broncos +1, Total: 41.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – DENVER (+1) over New York Jets

The Broncos were outmatched last week in Miami but at least some of their woes can be attributed to the flu bug that reportedly ravaged Denver’s locker room. One of the sick players was quarterback Trevor Siemian and he threw for only 3.8 yards per pass play against a poor Dolphins secondary. The Broncos will be healthier this week in addition to getting top cornerback Aqib Talib back from suspension.

With that ugly loss at Miami Denver has now lost 8 consecutive games both straight up and to the spread. However, that skid is likely to end this week at home based on history. Since 1980 there have been 17 regular season games played in which a team had lost to the spread in their previous 8 (or more) games. If those teams were underdogs of 7 points or more they had no chance (0-5 ATS), but the other 12 that were not touchdown underdogs or more were 9-2 straight up and 10-0-1 ATS. Both of those straight up losses were by only 3 points so just because Denver has been horrible the last 8 weeks does not mean that they’re going to be horrible this week. In fact, history suggests that the Broncos have hit their bottom and it is now time to buy.

The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off a deceiving win over the Chiefs, as the New York won despite giving up 10.3 yards per play. New York applies to a negative 42-110-3 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s 38-31 upset win over the Chiefs.

The Jets are just 1-4 on the road with their only road win coming by just 3 points at winless Cleveland and Denver is a not so bad 3-3 straight up at home. The Broncos will play hard for their home fans and I like their chances this week over a Jets team in letdown mode. My ratings make this game a pick, so the line is fair, and the situation greatly favors the Broncos to end their futility.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Broncos
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.8 36.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 45.9% 45.0%
  • Sack Rate 8.3% 5.2%
  • Int Rate 1.9% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.4% 22.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.6% 43.3%
  • NYPP 6.5 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.3 28.4
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 31.7% 28.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 34.4% 41.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.2% 40.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 63.1 64.7
  • Early Down Succ 43.0% 45.5%
  • Succ Rate 41.1% 43.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.3% 43.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 27.2
  • Run Ratio 44.4% 43.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.8 28.4
  • Game Control 0.6 -0.6
 
  • Points 22.2 24.0
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