Game Analysis
Lean – DENVER (+1) over New York Jets
The Broncos were outmatched last week in Miami but at least some of their woes can be attributed to the flu bug that reportedly ravaged Denver’s locker room. One of the sick players was quarterback Trevor Siemian and he threw for only 3.8 yards per pass play against a poor Dolphins secondary. The Broncos will be healthier this week in addition to getting top cornerback Aqib Talib back from suspension.
With that ugly loss at Miami Denver has now lost 8 consecutive games both straight up and to the spread. However, that skid is likely to end this week at home based on history. Since 1980 there have been 17 regular season games played in which a team had lost to the spread in their previous 8 (or more) games. If those teams were underdogs of 7 points or more they had no chance (0-5 ATS), but the other 12 that were not touchdown underdogs or more were 9-2 straight up and 10-0-1 ATS. Both of those straight up losses were by only 3 points so just because Denver has been horrible the last 8 weeks does not mean that they’re going to be horrible this week. In fact, history suggests that the Broncos have hit their bottom and it is now time to buy.
The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off a deceiving win over the Chiefs, as the New York won despite giving up 10.3 yards per play. New York applies to a negative 42-110-3 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s 38-31 upset win over the Chiefs.
The Jets are just 1-4 on the road with their only road win coming by just 3 points at winless Cleveland and Denver is a not so bad 3-3 straight up at home. The Broncos will play hard for their home fans and I like their chances this week over a Jets team in letdown mode. My ratings make this game a pick, so the line is fair, and the situation greatly favors the Broncos to end their futility.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.9%
45.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.4%
22.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.6%
43.3%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
28.4
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
31.7%
28.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
34.4%
41.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
40.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
63.1
64.7
-
Early Down Succ
43.0%
45.5%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
43.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.3%
43.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
27.2
-
Run Ratio
44.4%
43.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.4
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.8
32.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.5%
44.3%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
4.0%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.6%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.4%
44.8%
-
NYPP
5.2
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.1
28.2
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.0
-
Stuff Rate
21.2%
32.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.5%
33.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
29.2%
32.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
66.9
60.9
-
Early Down Succ
40.3%
43.2%
-
Succ Rate
39.4%
39.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.1%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
29.1
-
Run Ratio
40.2%
46.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
34.7
-
Game Control
-5.8
5.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% / 43.3% |
2.5% / 6.7% |
5.1% / 3.6% |
4.4 / 7.3 |
25.0% / 33.3% |
31.3% / 24.4% |
2.4 / 4.3 |
56 / 75 |
35.9% / 37.7% |
33.9% / 37.3% |
26.5% / 68.1% |
3.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.6% / 60.0% |
29.7 / 25.3 |
2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% / 64.3% |
13.8% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 8.2 |
61.5% / 40.7% |
19.2% / 33.3% |
4.9 / 6.7 |
55 / 55 |
53.7% / 48.8% |
52.7% / 52.7% |
43.0% / 56.1% |
4.9 / 7.5 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
47.3% / 49.1% |
27.1 / 35.7 |
3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% / 41.7% |
8.0% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
9.3 / 4.1 |
37.1% / 46.7% |
34.3% / 46.7% |
3.0 / 2.0 |
60 / 63 |
48.9% / 54.2% |
43.3% / 42.9% |
40.1% / 11.6% |
5.6 / 3.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
58.3% / 23.8% |
31.4 / 23.7 |
4 |
JAC |
23 – 20 W |
2.3 |
44.4% / 30.6% |
13.9% / 2.8% |
3.2% / 2.9% |
6.0 / 3.8 |
31.3% / 57.5% |
43.8% / 20.0% |
8.0 / 4.4 |
68 / 76 |
37.3% / 50.8% |
38.2% / 44.7% |
68.6% / 27.6% |
6.9 / 4.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.1% / 52.6% |
29.5 / 27.0 |
5 |
@CLE |
17 – 14 W |
1.7 |
51.5% / 45.9% |
9.1% / 2.7% |
3.3% / 5.6% |
5.4 / 7.5 |
19.0% / 45.5% |
33.3% / 18.2% |
1.8 / 4.2 |
54 / 70 |
45.9% / 46.3% |
38.9% / 45.7% |
32.1% / 40.1% |
4.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
38.9% / 47.1% |
29.0 / 30.1 |
6 |
NE |
17 – 24 L |
0.1 |
54.0% / 39.5% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
4.3% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
40.0% / 61.5% |
24.0% / 7.7% |
3.0 / 4.6 |
75 / 64 |
50.9% / 49.0% |
49.3% / 48.4% |
46.0% / 29.5% |
5.5 / 5.9 |
1.3% / 1.6% |
33.3% / 40.6% |
24.0 / 28.7 |
7 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
5.2 |
36.7% / 52.5% |
10.0% / 7.5% |
3.7% / 5.4% |
6.0 / 7.6 |
34.8% / 24.0% |
30.4% / 44.0% |
4.0 / 2.1 |
53 / 65 |
37.5% / 42.3% |
35.8% / 41.5% |
61.9% / 53.8% |
5.2 / 5.5 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
43.4% / 38.5% |
29.3 / 31.2 |
8 |
ATL |
20 – 25 L |
1.1 |
51.4% / 50.0% |
8.6% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 8.2 |
22.7% / 37.5% |
36.4% / 28.1% |
2.0 / 4.4 |
57 / 62 |
41.5% / 45.8% |
40.4% / 43.5% |
40.1% / 53.1% |
4.9 / 6.2 |
1.8% / 3.2% |
38.6% / 51.6% |
36.9 / 26.1 |
9 |
BUF |
34 – 21 W |
9.6 |
42.9% / 48.9% |
4.8% / 14.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 5.2 |
38.6% / 27.3% |
29.5% / 40.9% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
65 / 69 |
43.5% / 42.3% |
40.0% / 42.0% |
55.4% / 31.6% |
5.1 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
67.7% / 31.9% |
38.0 / 25.2 |
10 |
@TB |
10 – 15 L |
-3.4 |
28.9% / 40.0% |
13.3% / 2.9% |
2.6% / 2.9% |
4.9 / 5.2 |
21.1% / 28.1% |
42.1% / 28.1% |
2.9 / 2.8 |
64 / 67 |
27.7% / 32.7% |
26.6% / 34.3% |
46.2% / 23.2% |
4.3 / 4.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
29.7% / 47.8% |
19.0 / 36.0 |
12 |
CAR |
27 – 35 L |
-3.0 |
48.6% / 29.0% |
8.1% / 9.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 5.0 |
38.5% / 39.4% |
26.9% / 36.4% |
4.2 / 4.4 |
63 / 64 |
46.9% / 36.7% |
44.4% / 34.4% |
54.5% / 50.5% |
6.2 / 4.7 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.3% / 51.6% |
27.7 / 25.3 |
13 |
KC |
38 – 31 W |
-0.6 |
58.3% / 54.3% |
0.0% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 10.3 |
43.1% / 54.5% |
29.4% / 9.1% |
3.1 / 10.2 |
87 / 46 |
46.8% / 59.5% |
49.4% / 54.3% |
40.8% / 74.5% |
5.6 / 10.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
58.6% / 23.9% |
24.0 / 27.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
LAC |
24 – 21 W |
6.6 |
50.0% / 47.1% |
12.5% / 2.9% |
3.6% / 3.0% |
5.7 / 5.4 |
40.5% / 27.3% |
18.9% / 31.8% |
3.8 / 2.9 |
69 / 56 |
44.2% / 42.9% |
44.9% / 39.3% |
47.8% / 27.7% |
4.7 / 4.4 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
53.6% / 39.3% |
31.8 / 31.6 |
2 |
DAL |
42 – 17 W |
11.9 |
64.7% / 42.3% |
5.9% / 3.8% |
3.1% / 4.0% |
5.9 / 4.4 |
52.5% / 28.6% |
17.5% / 42.9% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
74 / 66 |
59.6% / 44.7% |
58.1% / 39.4% |
30.7% / 14.6% |
5.1 / 4.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
54.1% / 21.2% |
26.9 / 37.6 |
3 |
@BUF |
16 – 26 L |
-1.6 |
37.2% / 50.0% |
7.0% / 13.3% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 6.6 |
39.1% / 27.0% |
26.1% / 27.0% |
4.8 / 2.1 |
66 / 67 |
38.0% / 42.2% |
37.9% / 37.3% |
59.3% / 44.4% |
5.5 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 55.2% |
23.7 / 39.8 |
4 |
OAK |
16 – 10 W |
6.7 |
33.3% / 36.8% |
13.3% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
5.2 / 6.1 |
31.4% / 33.3% |
22.9% / 46.7% |
4.2 / 1.6 |
65 / 53 |
36.4% / 44.7% |
32.3% / 35.8% |
39.5% / 52.8% |
4.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.8% / 28.3% |
28.8 / 24.7 |
6 |
NYG |
10 – 23 L |
-10.4 |
35.1% / 40.9% |
7.0% / 13.6% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 5.4 |
44.4% / 18.8% |
11.1% / 40.6% |
2.6 / 4.6 |
75 / 54 |
40.0% / 27.5% |
37.3% / 27.8% |
47.0% / 53.4% |
5.5 / 4.9 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
24.0% / 59.3% |
27.0 / 31.2 |
7 |
@LAC |
0 – 21 L |
-11.1 |
35.0% / 34.5% |
12.5% / 10.3% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 5.6 |
21.1% / 19.2% |
21.1% / 42.3% |
3.6 / 3.1 |
59 / 55 |
32.6% / 28.6% |
30.5% / 27.3% |
13.5% / 44.6% |
4.3 / 4.4 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
32.2% / 47.3% |
23.2 / 29.8 |
8 |
@KC |
19 – 29 L |
-11.9 |
41.0% / 36.4% |
7.7% / 3.0% |
8.3% / 3.1% |
4.8 / 6.0 |
61.3% / 25.9% |
12.9% / 37.0% |
5.7 / 3.0 |
70 / 60 |
53.6% / 37.0% |
50.0% / 31.7% |
39.0% / 52.0% |
5.2 / 4.6 |
2.9% / 1.7% |
44.3% / 45.0% |
23.9 / 40.0 |
9 |
@PHI |
23 – 51 L |
-19.2 |
36.6% / 50.0% |
7.3% / 6.7% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 7.4 |
36.8% / 47.4% |
31.6% / 26.3% |
1.8 / 5.2 |
60 / 68 |
39.1% / 53.1% |
36.7% / 48.5% |
27.4% / 52.9% |
3.8 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
31.7% / 55.9% |
26.1 / 37.7 |
10 |
NE |
16 – 41 L |
-14.7 |
39.4% / 65.8% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 7.8 |
44.8% / 55.2% |
13.8% / 13.8% |
4.1 / 3.4 |
62 / 67 |
40.0% / 67.9% |
41.9% / 61.2% |
46.2% / 32.1% |
5.5 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
46.8% / 43.3% |
23.7 / 37.9 |
11 |
CIN |
17 – 20 L |
-4.4 |
42.2% / 37.0% |
6.7% / 7.4% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 5.2 |
50.0% / 32.1% |
23.5% / 35.7% |
3.3 / 1.8 |
79 / 55 |
41.1% / 33.3% |
45.6% / 34.5% |
15.8% / 30.2% |
4.3 / 3.5 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
43.0% / 50.9% |
31.5 / 33.2 |
12 |
@OAK |
14 – 21 L |
-9.5 |
30.0% / 50.0% |
12.5% / 7.7% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.0 / 9.4 |
17.6% / 40.0% |
29.4% / 22.5% |
3.5 / 2.7 |
57 / 66 |
21.4% / 50.0% |
26.3% / 43.9% |
42.0% / 50.7% |
3.8 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
29.8% / 60.6% |
21.7 / 32.7 |
13 |
@MIA |
9 – 35 L |
-12.2 |
29.5% / 41.2% |
6.8% / 5.9% |
7.3% / 6.3% |
3.8 / 6.5 |
34.8% / 43.3% |
26.1% / 23.3% |
4.5 / 4.8 |
67 / 64 |
37.7% / 46.9% |
31.3% / 42.2% |
60.7% / 56.1% |
4.0 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
34.3% / 46.9% |
17.9 / 40.2 |