New York Jets @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Sep 18
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 265
Odds: Cleveland Browns -6.5, Total: 40

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **New York Jets (+6.5) over CLEVELAND

Strong Opinion – Under (40)

· The spread for this game before last week was Browns -5 and I don’t think we saw enough to move this number through the 6 based on the first week from these teams.

· New York and Cleveland were both -0.4 in yards per play differential last week, but the Jets faced a much tougher opponent in Baltimore than Cleveland did with Carolina.

· I thought Jacoby Brissett could be the version we saw in 2019 when he was a solid game manager in Frank Reich’s offense and the Colts averaged 22.6 points per game (16th). However, Kevin Stefanski did not treat his quarterback like a solid game manager in week 1 and now there’s reason to believe Brissett is one of the worst QBs in the NFL based on his performance and on that play-calling.

· Cleveland’s offense ranked 4th in early down rushing rate over expectation based on down, distance, time, and win probability. Brissett gained just 3.9 yards per pass play last week (31st). This could be one of the few games all year the Jets are not at a quarterback disadvantage.

· Early returns from New York’s starting cornerbacks were solid after they were a disaster at CB last season. DJ Reed faced six targets against the Ravens and did not allow a single reception. Rookie CB Sauce Gardner saw two targets in his direction, breaking up one and conceding a reception on the other for just eight yards. I think Reed and Gardner should hold up versus WR Amari Cooper, who averaged just 2.8 yards per target in his first game with the Browns.

· Cleveland’s passing attack looks limited and the ground game will be no cake walk versus the Jets. New York’s rush defense rated 8th by our numbers last season and held the Ravens (who have a better run game than the Browns) to just 63 yards on 21 attempts.

· Cleveland had the 29th-ranked rush defense in 2021 according to our metrics and I doubt we see Joe Flacco with 62 dropbacks like he had versus Baltimore.

· Browns edge defender Myles Garrett had six pressures last Sunday, but it won’t be as simple for him this week with his matchup going from rookie LT Ikem Ekwonu making his NFL debut to George Fant, who ranked 4th in pass blocking efficiency last season.

· Our model has the Browns by 2.7 with a predicted total of 38.0.

The Jets are a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 39.5 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Browns
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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