Game Analysis
Best Bet – *CHICAGO (-7 at -105) over NY Jets
Note: The line has moved out of Best Bet range at -7.5. If the line does not come back down to -7 you can consider the Bears a Strong Opinion at -7.5 or -8.
The market is likely undervaluing Chicago due to their two straight losses and they have a favorable matchup this week to right the ship. The Jets rank 8th in the league with 853 rushing yards and have the 7th-highest rushing rate at 45.4%. However, New York’s running game has been the beneficiary of chunk plays, which are less predictive than success rate, where they rank 30th. In other words, it’s highly unlikely that New York will continue to average 4.3 yards per rush. That’s particularly true this week against a Bears’ rush defense that ranks 3rd in the league. I don’t expect the Jets to find success on the ground in this game, meaning they’ll likely be forced to rely on Sam Darnold to put points on the board.
Crowd noise makes it exceedingly difficult for rookie quarterbacks to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage and Darnold has been a different quarterback on the road, gaining just 5.2 yards per pass play, compared to the 6.7 yards per pass play he’s averaged at home. Darnold will be in trouble on Sunday if he cannot properly shift his protection versus Chicago’s defensive front. The Bears have an 8.1% sack rate (7th) and Darnold is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league under pressure averaging just 2.8 yards per pass play. Furthermore, rookie quarterbacks tend to regress after the first few games when teams get enough film on them to isolate their weaknesses. In fact, rookie quarterbacks are just 62-85-6 ATS as a group in weeks 4 to15.
Mitch Trubisky has produced 19.4 points added on the ground this season according to our metrics, more than 7 points above the next highest quarterback Cam Newton and nearly matching his passing expected points added of 19.9 points. I expect Trubisky to continue utilizing his legs, but he’s also thrown for the 3rd-most yards from deep passes and has a good chance to find success downfield against New York’s banged-up secondary.
Our model favors Chicago by 10.5 points and we’re expecting a rough afternoon for New York’s offense in Darnold’s first road start since September against a Bears’ team that has enough film to know that the rookie doesn’t handle pressure well. I’ll take Chicago in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 at -110 odds or better. Strong Opinion at -7.5 or -8.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.0
40.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.2%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
7.4%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
5.2%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
14.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.9%
35.9%
-
NYPP
7.7
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.7
26.3
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
29.2%
30.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
34.9%
43.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.5%
47.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
61.7
66.7
-
Early Down Succ
42.1%
49.4%
-
Succ Rate
40.2%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.4%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
27.1
-
Run Ratio
48.4%
39.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
31.1
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.3
38.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.2%
47.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
8.5%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
5.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.9%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.4%
47.7%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.5
22.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
17.3%
18.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
44.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.4%
24.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.8
61.0
-
Early Down Succ
51.8%
48.4%
-
Succ Rate
49.6%
46.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.3%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
28.5
-
Run Ratio
44.6%
36.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
27.7
-
Game Control
5.5
-5.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% / 44.2% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
4.8% / 9.6% |
7.8 / 5.8 |
32.6% / 37.5% |
9.3% / 25.0% |
4.0 / 2.5 |
66 / 68 |
53.8% / 51.0% |
43.9% / 42.6% |
55.1% / 37.9% |
5.4 / 5.0 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
65.2% / 23.5% |
40.7 / 23.0 |
2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% / 44.4% |
6.8% / 14.8% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.5 |
26.3% / 52.9% |
36.8% / 26.5% |
2.2 / 4.1 |
63 / 61 |
39.6% / 55.8% |
38.1% / 49.2% |
50.3% / 36.2% |
5.7 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 3.3% |
30.2% / 55.7% |
24.1 / 34.4 |
3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% / 36.6% |
6.1% / 9.8% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 4.6 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
43.3% / 31.4% |
3.6 / 3.9 |
63 / 76 |
42.6% / 42.6% |
42.9% / 39.5% |
22.4% / 32.3% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
47.6% / 46.1% |
23.2 / 33.3 |
4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% / 57.5% |
8.1% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
3.9 / 9.4 |
28.6% / 38.2% |
35.7% / 20.6% |
2.4 / 3.7 |
51 / 74 |
35.1% / 50.0% |
31.4% / 48.6% |
23.6% / 50.5% |
3.5 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 2.7% |
27.5% / 45.9% |
29.8 / 26.8 |
5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% / 71.8% |
9.1% / 10.3% |
10.0% / 2.9% |
17.2 / 8.8 |
46.2% / 47.1% |
17.9% / 47.1% |
8.3 / 5.4 |
50 / 56 |
42.6% / 56.1% |
52.0% / 64.3% |
74.5% / 42.2% |
10.3 / 7.8 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
78.0% / 30.4% |
28.8 / 26.2 |
6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% / 46.5% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
3.4% / 7.0% |
8.6 / 7.0 |
23.1% / 60.9% |
28.2% / 17.4% |
2.8 / 5.5 |
70 / 66 |
48.0% / 54.7% |
42.9% / 51.5% |
41.9% / 32.5% |
5.4 / 6.5 |
1.4% / 1.5% |
55.7% / 34.8% |
40.5 / 32.7 |
7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% / 34.1% |
6.7% / 2.4% |
7.1% / 0.0% |
4.3 / 5.6 |
37.5% / 24.0% |
33.3% / 44.0% |
3.0 / 3.6 |
69 / 66 |
33.3% / 35.4% |
30.4% / 30.3% |
50.2% / 58.0% |
3.8 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 37.9% |
27.3 / 41.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@GB |
23 – 24 L |
9.5 |
35.9% / 43.9% |
10.3% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
4.0 / 7.3 |
59.3% / 27.8% |
18.5% / 16.7% |
5.1 / 3.8 |
66 / 59 |
48.9% / 40.0% |
45.5% / 39.0% |
38.1% / 59.5% |
4.5 / 6.3 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
40.9% / 30.5% |
25.7 / 30.7 |
2 |
SEA |
24 – 17 W |
7.4 |
52.8% / 43.6% |
5.6% / 15.4% |
5.9% / 3.0% |
5.1 / 5.2 |
48.3% / 45.5% |
13.8% / 13.6% |
3.0 / 3.4 |
65 / 61 |
55.1% / 44.9% |
50.8% / 44.3% |
6.3% / 23.2% |
4.2 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
44.6% / 36.1% |
33.6 / 24.5 |
3 |
@ARI |
16 – 14 W |
-7.2 |
42.1% / 40.0% |
7.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 11.5% |
5.1 / 5.6 |
54.8% / 33.3% |
22.6% / 27.8% |
3.9 / 2.9 |
69 / 48 |
50.0% / 40.5% |
47.8% / 37.5% |
37.7% / 58.8% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 2.1% |
44.9% / 37.5% |
27.8 / 32.8 |
4 |
TB |
48 – 10 W |
27.7 |
66.7% / 45.2% |
3.7% / 9.5% |
0.0% / 7.9% |
12.7 / 6.0 |
51.5% / 38.9% |
27.3% / 22.2% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
60 / 60 |
64.6% / 45.7% |
58.3% / 43.3% |
72.6% / 32.8% |
8.1 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.0% / 30.0% |
27.5 / 23.8 |
6 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
-0.3 |
54.5% / 48.8% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
3.2% / 4.7% |
9.2 / 8.8 |
43.8% / 58.1% |
9.4% / 9.7% |
5.2 / 5.2 |
65 / 74 |
48.0% / 53.4% |
49.2% / 52.7% |
60.7% / 48.2% |
7.2 / 7.3 |
3.1% / 1.4% |
49.2% / 41.9% |
25.3 / 28.7 |
7 |
NE |
31 – 38 L |
-3.8 |
43.1% / 62.2% |
3.9% / 2.7% |
4.1% / 2.8% |
6.3 / 7.4 |
52.0% / 63.0% |
12.0% / 22.2% |
5.4 / 4.0 |
76 / 64 |
44.1% / 66.0% |
46.1% / 62.5% |
44.6% / 29.7% |
6.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
32.9% / 42.2% |
32.9 / 25.6 |