New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Opinion – New York Jets (+9.5) over BUFFALO

The Jets are the worst team in football and everyone knows it – their win total (4) is the lowest in the last 15 years. However, this line opened at 6.5 and has since moved

The Bills’ points margin was +22 last season, 44 points worse than their +66 EPA – the most unlucky points margin EPA difference in the league. They only won 7 games in 2016 but their points differential would expect about 8.5 wins and their EPA would expect almost 9.5 wins.

The Jets are the worst team in football and everyone knows it – their season win total (4) is the lowest in the last 15 years. However, this line opened at 6.5 and has since moved through the key number 7 to 8, even after Buffalo traded away its best receiver (Watkins) and best cornerback (Darby).

Josh McCown has been very up-and-down the last four years posting EPA/pass plays of 0.34 (2013), -0.13 (2014), 0.05 (2015), and -0.11 (2016). Tyrod Taylor had a shaky preseason (2.3 yppp, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) but he had an efficient season in 2016.

There’s a wide-range of quarterback projection in this game, which adds to the uncertainty. However, Week 1 teams with the worse win percentage the previous year are 150-96-10 ATS since 1999 and this game applies to a 53-17-1 ATS subset of that trend so I’ll lean Jets at +7 or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Bills

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.6 35.6
Succ Pass Plays 40.8% 49.2%
Sack Rate 6.1% 4.8%
Int Rate 4.3% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 23.3% 18.0%
Big Pass Yards 41.3% 43.9%
NYPP 6.0 7.0

Rush

Rush Plays 26.4 28.3
RB YPR 4.2 3.5
Stuff Rate 20.6% 32.9%
Succ Rush Plays 45.9% 35.2%
Big Rush Yards 36.3% 47.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.5

Game

All Snaps 63.0 63.8
Early Down Succ 45.7% 46.0%
Succ Rate 42.9% 42.7%
Big Yards Rate 40.9% 47.8%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.1
Run Ratio 41.4% 44.2%
Starting Field Pos 26.5 29.7
Game Control -5.3 5.3

Points 17.2 25.6

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.4 34.3
Succ Pass Plays 42.7% 45.6%
Sack Rate 9.2% 7.0%
Int Rate 1.5% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.0% 23.1%
Big Pass Yards 38.2% 41.4%
NYPP 5.8 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 31.2 30.0
RB YPR 4.8 4.0
Stuff Rate 25.7% 24.2%
Succ Rush Plays 51.7% 44.9%
Big Rush Yards 56.9% 46.7%
Yards Per Rush 5.1 4.3

Game

All Snaps 63.6 64.3
Early Down Succ 49.8% 49.3%
Succ Rate 47.3% 45.8%
Big Yards Rate 48.1% 44.3%
Yards Per Play 5.5 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 28.9
Run Ratio 48.6% 46.2%
Starting Field Pos 29.0 28.7
Game Control 0.1 -0.1

Points 25.0 23.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CIN	22 – 23 L	1.8	36.1% / 48.6%	2.8% / 18.9%	2.9% / 3.3%	5.2 / 8.8	56.7% / 42.1%	16.7% / 26.3%	5.1 / 3.1	66 / 56	48.1% / 52.3%	45.5% / 46.4%	40.6% / 68.6%	5.2 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	45.5% / 33.9%	33.5 / 26.2
2	@BUF	37 – 31 W	2.8	57.1% / 53.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.3%	10.6 / 10.2	45.9% / 47.4%	16.2% / 42.1%	3.4 / 4.5	72 / 49	50.9% / 56.8%	51.4% / 51.0%	54.5% / 54.5%	6.9 / 8.0	1.4% / 0.0%	51.4% / 38.8%	24.6 / 26.1
3	@KC	3 – 24 L	-10.3	34.1% / 48.6%	0.0% / 5.7%	13.6% / 0.0%	4.3 / 6.3	50.0% / 30.0%	13.6% / 33.3%	5.3 / 2.5	66 / 65	36.0% / 43.2%	39.4% / 40.0%	39.0% / 40.2%	4.6 / 4.6	3.0% / 1.5%	33.3% / 46.2%	30.1 / 27.3
4	SEA	17 – 27 L	-5.2	40.0% / 61.8%	8.9% / 5.9%	7.3% / 0.0%	5.5 / 8.5	30.0% / 31.0%	25.0% / 31.0%	2.9 / 2.4	65 / 63	32.7% / 57.4%	36.9% / 47.6%	16.7% / 56.3%	4.7 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	30.8% / 46.0%	20.3 / 32.8
5	@PIT	13 – 31 L	-4.6	46.3% / 60.4%	7.3% / 2.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 7.8	47.1% / 26.9%	29.4% / 23.1%	4.2 / 2.4	58 / 74	54.3% / 52.5%	46.6% / 48.6%	8.9% / 23.9%	5.4 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.4%	29.3% / 35.1%	21.1 / 32.3
6	@ARI	3 – 28 L	-12.2	39.5% / 60.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.4% / 0.0%	5.2 / 6.4	21.4% / 40.5%	21.4% / 29.7%	2.4 / 4.7	52 / 72	40.5% / 52.6%	34.6% / 50.0%	25.7% / 27.9%	4.4 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	26.9% / 51.4%	20.9 / 25.7
7	BAL	24 – 16 W	-0.4	37.0% / 34.1%	18.5% / 2.3%	0.0% / 4.7%	7.0 / 5.4	37.5% / 8.3%	15.0% / 58.3%	3.9 / 0.5	67 / 56	38.8% / 31.0%	37.3% / 28.6%	59.4% / 41.6%	5.1 / 4.4	3.0% / 1.8%	59.7% / 21.4%	32.3 / 25.3
8	@CLE	31 – 28 W	-3.1	36.1% / 38.5%	5.6% / 1.9%	0.0% / 3.9%	6.2 / 6.5	45.7% / 44.4%	28.6% / 38.9%	4.9 / 3.8	71 / 70	39.6% / 37.0%	40.8% / 40.0%	55.8% / 53.3%	5.5 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 25.7%	30.8 / 22.3
9	@MIA	23 – 27 L	-2.0	42.4% / 50.0%	9.1% / 3.3%	6.7% / 0.0%	5.8 / 4.6	47.6% / 36.4%	23.8% / 39.4%	6.7 / 4.2	54 / 63	48.8% / 44.9%	44.4% / 42.9%	51.2% / 46.2%	6.1 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	38.9% / 52.4%	27.5 / 34.7
10	LA	6 – 9 L	0.5	39.4% / 36.4%	3.0% / 9.1%	3.1% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.7	48.0% / 40.5%	32.0% / 27.0%	5.6 / 3.5	58 / 70	47.8% / 43.8%	43.1% / 38.6%	50.3% / 49.1%	5.1 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 52.9%	17.7 / 27.6
12	NE	17 – 22 L	1.3	54.5% / 46.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.7	45.8% / 40.0%	12.5% / 16.0%	2.7 / 3.8	57 / 75	54.5% / 51.9%	50.9% / 44.0%	45.2% / 36.3%	5.9 / 5.1	3.5% / 0.0%	42.1% / 33.3%	22.2 / 31.9
13	IND	10 – 41 L	-20.5	39.5% / 70.0%	2.6% / 3.3%	8.1% / 0.0%	5.6 / 9.4	53.3% / 30.2%	13.3% / 16.3%	2.5 / 3.3	53 / 73	50.0% / 50.0%	43.4% / 46.6%	31.9% / 44.3%	4.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.4%	28.3% / 58.9%	18.3 / 43.7
14	@SF	23 – 17 W	-11.9	41.5% / 32.1%	14.6% / 7.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.3 / 4.1	55.0% / 48.1%	15.0% / 25.9%	4.7 / 9.2	81 / 55	48.4% / 47.6%	48.1% / 40.0%	38.4% / 70.3%	5.0 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	49.4% / 49.1%	27.8 / 28.8
15	MIA	13 – 35 L	-7.8	32.7% / 52.6%	6.1% / 5.3%	6.5% / 5.6%	5.0 / 12.4	65.2% / 25.9%	13.0% / 51.9%	5.0 / 2.5	72 / 46	48.1% / 35.3%	43.1% / 37.0%	42.5% / 63.7%	5.0 / 6.6	1.4% / 0.0%	31.9% / 58.7%	31.5 / 27.5
16	@NE	3 – 41 L	-21.8	30.8% / 50.0%	7.7% / 3.3%	12.5% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.0	48.3% / 35.7%	31.0% / 21.4%	3.8 / 2.8	55 / 72	46.3% / 38.0%	40.0% / 41.7%	51.5% / 41.5%	4.3 / 4.6	1.8% / 0.0%	52.7% / 58.3%	22.9 / 38.8
17	BUF	30 – 10 W	8.1	45.2% / 44.1%	3.2% / 8.8%	0.0% / 3.2%	6.5 / 4.8	36.7% / 35.7%	23.3% / 46.4%	4.3 / 2.4	61 / 62	46.7% / 42.2%	41.0% / 40.3%	43.0% / 47.8%	5.4 / 3.7	0.0% / 3.2%	49.2% / 45.2%	41.8 / 24.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BAL	7 – 13 L	-3.5	37.5% / 44.7%	8.3% / 10.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.0 / 5.9	45.8% / 35.5%	41.7% / 22.6%	2.7 / 2.8	48 / 69	45.5% / 45.8%	41.7% / 40.6%	38.8% / 47.9%	3.3 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.4%	50.0% / 44.9%	31.9 / 23.1
2	NYJ	31 – 37 L	-2.8	53.3% / 57.1%	0.0% / 2.9%	3.3% / 0.0%	10.2 / 10.6	47.4% / 45.9%	42.1% / 16.2%	4.5 / 3.4	49 / 72	56.8% / 50.9%	51.0% / 51.4%	54.5% / 54.5%	8.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 1.4%	38.8% / 51.4%	26.1 / 24.6
3	ARI	34 – 18 W	12.1	27.6% / 40.0%	13.8% / 9.1%	4.0% / 8.0%	3.0 / 4.7	51.4% / 40.9%	25.7% / 31.8%	6.0 / 4.0	64 / 77	47.8% / 42.6%	40.6% / 40.3%	80.9% / 27.0%	4.7 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.3%	54.7% / 28.6%	33.8 / 32.3
4	@NE	16 – 0 W	11.1	43.9% / 43.3%	4.9% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.2	56.3% / 40.9%	21.9% / 27.3%	4.2 / 4.1	73 / 52	50.0% / 51.4%	49.3% / 42.3%	22.8% / 34.3%	5.2 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.9%	43.8% / 42.3%	23.3 / 22.9
5	@LA	30 – 19 W	4.3	36.0% / 42.9%	8.0% / 11.4%	0.0% / 6.5%	4.5 / 6.9	46.4% / 55.2%	28.6% / 13.8%	6.9 / 3.5	53 / 64	45.0% / 54.0%	41.5% / 48.4%	56.5% / 54.8%	5.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.6%	52.8% / 45.3%	34.0 / 21.2
6	SF	45 – 16 W	6.8	41.9% / 37.5%	9.7% / 9.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 5.2	62.2% / 44.8%	13.3% / 27.6%	7.0 / 4.6	76 / 61	54.1% / 50.0%	53.9% / 41.0%	57.7% / 42.9%	6.5 / 4.9	2.6% / 1.6%	59.2% / 47.5%	30.2 / 30.7
7	@MIA	25 – 28 L	2.6	37.5% / 42.3%	12.5% / 3.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 7.6	36.4% / 47.6%	22.7% / 21.4%	3.0 / 6.1	54 / 68	41.5% / 48.1%	37.0% / 45.6%	45.7% / 63.7%	4.9 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	40.7% / 61.8%	31.7 / 25.6
8	NE	25 – 41 L	-12.9	31.0% / 50.0%	4.8% / 13.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 7.5	61.5% / 41.7%	19.2% / 29.2%	6.4 / 3.0	68 / 62	45.1% / 42.6%	42.6% / 46.8%	58.2% / 43.0%	5.5 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	38.2% / 38.7%	27.0 / 31.4
9	@SEA	25 – 31 L	-4.1	55.8% / 63.3%	11.6% / 13.3%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.1 / 8.2	57.9% / 38.5%	15.8% / 38.5%	4.3 / 2.6	81 / 43	54.0% / 64.7%	56.8% / 55.8%	30.6% / 29.7%	5.2 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	46.9% / 30.2%	31.4 / 30.6
11	@CIN	16 – 12 W	2.0	41.4% / 46.5%	6.9% / 2.3%	3.7% / 4.8%	5.5 / 4.8	58.8% / 51.9%	14.7% / 25.9%	5.4 / 3.4	63 / 70	56.0% / 47.3%	50.8% / 48.6%	40.9% / 19.3%	5.4 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	54.0% / 38.6%	33.2 / 23.3
12	JAC	28 – 21 W	-0.7	47.8% / 35.7%	21.7% / 7.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 4.2	33.3% / 50.0%	30.0% / 23.7%	5.1 / 4.8	53 / 66	39.5% / 43.8%	39.6% / 43.9%	56.7% / 44.7%	5.8 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	56.6% / 57.6%	28.1 / 30.1
13	@OAK	24 – 38 L	1.3	43.6% / 48.6%	10.3% / 0.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.4 / 7.4	73.3% / 37.5%	13.3% / 21.9%	7.1 / 4.3	69 / 67	55.6% / 44.4%	56.5% / 43.3%	34.3% / 43.9%	5.5 / 6.0	1.4% / 0.0%	43.5% / 47.8%	23.8 / 33.3
14	PIT	20 – 27 L	-9.0	43.3% / 48.4%	16.7% / 0.0%	4.0% / 9.7%	6.9 / 7.1	38.9% / 59.1%	38.9% / 15.9%	3.7 / 5.5	48 / 75	43.6% / 60.7%	41.7% / 54.7%	52.4% / 50.5%	5.7 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	37.5% / 58.7%	28.3 / 32.4
15	CLE	33 – 13 W	9.8	50.0% / 45.5%	3.8% / 15.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 4.9	62.5% / 38.1%	15.0% / 33.3%	7.0 / 5.1	66 / 54	60.7% / 45.2%	57.6% / 42.6%	40.4% / 56.5%	6.8 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	60.6% / 38.9%	33.9 / 22.6
16	MIA	31 – 34 L	-7.5	48.8% / 37.9%	4.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.4%	7.7 / 8.0	60.0% / 53.8%	22.0% / 15.4%	5.5 / 6.7	91 / 68	59.4% / 50.0%	54.9% / 47.1%	52.2% / 52.9%	6.5 / 7.3	0.0% / 0.0%	54.9% / 57.4%	22.6 / 33.6
17	@NYJ	10 – 30 L	-8.1	44.1% / 45.2%	8.8% / 3.2%	3.2% / 0.0%	4.8 / 6.5	35.7% / 36.7%	46.4% / 23.3%	2.4 / 4.3	62 / 61	42.2% / 46.7%	40.3% / 41.0%	47.8% / 43.0%	3.7 / 5.4	3.2% / 0.0%	45.2% / 49.2%	24.9 / 41.8

New York Jets @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Sep 10

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis