New York Giants @

Washington Football Team

Thu, Sep 16
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Washington Football Team -3.5, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Giants (+3.5) over WASHINGTON

Many are pointing towards last year’s playoff game versus the Buccaneers as a reason Washington’s offense doesn’t need to worry with Taylor Heinicke now at the helm. However, our metrics suggest otherwise, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably a bit underrated. Fitzpatrick averaged 7.2 yards per pass play last season for Miami, which ranked 10th in the league. Prior to the injury, our model gave Fitzpatrick a reasonable chance to lead Washington to an above league average offense like he did with Miami. Heinicke is averaging 5.9 yppp in his career and we have him 2.3 points worse than Fitzpatrick. It could have been partially due to lack of reps, but Washington clearly didn’t trust Heinicke when he came in last week as he passed on only 18 of his 34 snaps.

Daniel Jones leads the NFL in turnovers since he entered the league in 2019 and he could have more ball security issues on Thursday night. Right tackles Nate Solder and Matt Peart surrendered 6 pressures in week 1 and neither will be able to stay in front of edge rusher Chase Young. Giants top WR Kenny Golladay will be limited by CB William Jackson, who conceded just 13 yards in coverage and had an interception last week.

Our model makes Washington a 1.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.5 points. It is probably best not to overreact to have bad New York looked last week in their 13-27 home loss to Denver. In week 2, road teams that scored 14 points or less and allowed 21 points or more are 34-10-2 ATS as underdogs against a host that also lost their opener. A 122-64-3 ATS early season situation also favors the Giants in this game, and I’ll lean with New York at +3 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Football Team
NYG
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.0 38.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.7% 52.6%
  • Sack Rate 5.1% 5.3%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.1% 25.4%
  • NYPP 6.8 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 20.0 28.0
  • RB YPR 2.1 5.8
  • Stuff Rate 20.0% 21.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.0% 39.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 49.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.0 5.9




Game

  • All Snaps 59.0 66.0
  • Early Down Succ 47.7% 45.7%
  • Succ Rate 47.5% 47.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 30.3% 34.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 6.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.0 32.1
  • Run Ratio 33.9% 42.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -4.9 4.9
 
  • Points 13.0 27.0
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