Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NY Giants (+2.5) over WASHINGTON

• Commanders’ offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is shackling his rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels threw a league-low 12.5% of his attempts with 10+ air yards last week despite Tampa Bay’s defense having 3 cornerbacks leave the game in the first half.
• Kingsbury had Daniels extremely conservative on 3rd down with his targets averaging an NFL-worst 7.8 yards in front of the sticks.
• The only receivers with more than 30 yards for Washington’s offense were the running backs who Daniels targeted on a league-high 33.3% of his attempts. Giants’ defensive coordinator Shane Bowen was in Tennessee last season and they conceded only a 35% pass success rate to running backs (5th).
• Bowen is also particularly well suited to take away the only aspect of Daniels’s game that he excelled in his debut. Daniels had four carries of 10 or more yards against the Buccaneers. The Titans conceded only 217 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks last season (3rd) and Bowen will limit the running threat of Daniels.
• Furthermore, Commanders head coach Dan Quinn was quoted saying “Not all of those are designed quarterback runs. We’d love to see him remain a passer first” implying he’s going to try to limit his own quarterback, who averaged 1.15 EPA/scramble.
• Washington’s defense surrendered a league-high 0.20 EPA/dropback in week 1. This is the weakest secondary Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones will see until these teams meet again in week 9.
• New York’s 6th overall pick WR Malik Nabers had 66 yards in his debut, and he has a favorable matchup across from Emmanuel Forbes, who was one of 13 cornerbacks in week 1 to surrender 2 yards per route run.
• Jones should have time in the pocket to find Nabers on vertical shots. Giants RG Greg Van Roten 9th in pass blocking efficiency last year and he will limit interior defender Daron Payne, who had 5 pressures in week 1 (4th). New York LG Jon Runyan ranked 7th in pass blocking efficiency last season, and he will contain DT Jonathan Allen 49 pressures in 2023 (14th).
• Our model favors the Commanders by just 1.0 points, with a predicted total of 39.3 points, and the Giants apply to a very good 138-51-3 ATS situation. Also, teams that lose their season opener at home by a double-digit margin are 49-26-2 ATS on the road in week 2 the last 30 years, including 24-4 ATS the last 10 years.

New York Giants are a 1-Star Best Bet at +1.5 or more.