Game Analysis

Lean – NY Giants (+4.5) over WASHINGTON

Lean – Under (40.5)

· Washington was favored by 2.5 points in New York when these teams tied before the Commanders had a bye last week. Washington is now 4.5-point favorites at home which is a ~12% difference of implied win probability.

· I believe the difference in home field for divisional opponents is much less and would have it around 6%, but another game of data also downgrades the Giants.

· New York’s defense surrendered 0.413 EPA/play last week and the offense averaged only -0.044 EPA/play versus Philadelphia.

· The Commanders have the defenders and scheme to shut down Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who had just 81 yards from scrimmage in the week 13 game. Washington’s defense is allowing only 4.9 yards per target to RBs (5th) and -0.135 EPA/rush (2nd).

· New York’s offensive line ranks 29th in pass blocking efficiency and the Commanders will be at full strength up front for the first week this year with an edge rush of Montez Sweat (back from concussion) and Chase Young (making season debut). Interior defenders Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne rank 4th and 17th in pass rushing efficiency respectively.

· Washington’s offensive line ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency and they are also in trouble in this game. Giants’ rookie edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux has 18 pressures in the last month (9th). Interior defender Dexter Lawrence ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency and DT Leonard Williams (likely returning from a sprained MCL) is averaging 3 pressures per game.

· Taylor Heinicke will hit his go-to guy WR Terry McLaurin, who is averaging 0.41 EPA/target (13th) and likely will be lined up across from backup cornerback Darnay Holmes.

· New York’s defense will presumably once again be without starting safety Xavier McKinney and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, who ranks 24th in coverage grade by PFF. Those two are worth 0.8 points according to our metrics.

· The Giants are allowing a 43.8% rush success rate (26th) and Washington had 36 carries in the last matchup for 165 yards.

· Our model favors the Commanders by 2.7 points, with a predicted total of 39.2 points.