Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *SEATTLE (-6) over NY Giants

Lean – Over (43.5)

• Seattle’s defense will be much improved on Sunday with 5 starters likely back on the field that were either out or went out of last week’s game in Detroit. Seahawks’ edge defender Uchenna Nwosu is set to make his season debut playing alongside edge defender Boye Mafe, who ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency but missed the Lions game.
• Seattle interior defender Leonard Williams had 11 pressures in the first three games (6th) before missing week 4 and he should be back in uniform. Safety Julian Love and linebacker Jerome Baker will also likely suit up.
• The Seahawks wide receivers have favorable matchups in this game, and I expect Geno Smith to carve up New York’s defense that is likely missing starting cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Andru Phillips. Jackson and Phillips are worth 0.6 points according to our metrics and Dak Prescott averaged 7.6 yppp with the pair off the field last week.
• Giants’ backup nickelback Duke Shelley will struggle on the inside versus Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 64% success rate ranks 10th.
• Seattle wide receiver DK Metcalf is averaging 2.30 yards per route run (10th) and he will get behind CB Deonte Banks, who is surrendering 1.88 yards per cover snap (5th-worst).
• Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett has a 58% success rate (17th) and he will capitalize across from backup CB Cor’Dale Flott, who surrendered 5 receptions last week (8th-most).
• New York WR Malik Nabers is averaging 0.48 EPA/target (16th) but I’m currently projecting the rookie wide receiver out this week. Nabers not practicing in a limited capacity 6 days after he experienced a concussion is a red flag given the protocol would normally allow him to be a full participant at this point. It seems like the Giants are taking a cautious approach with their first-round pick.
• Seattle CB Tariq Woolen is allowing just 0.30 yards per cover snap (4th) and he would limit Nabers if he is able to suit up.
• Our model favors the Seahawks by 10.7 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points.

Seattle is a 1-Star Best Bet at -6.5 or less (Strong Opinion at -7).