New York Giants @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Dec 6
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Seattle Seahawks -10.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **SEATTLE (-10 -115) over NY Giants

Daniel Jones has an outside shot of playing this week but it is likely we will see Colt McCoy starting behind center for the Giants. McCoy is a downgrade of more than 3 points from Jones by our metrics. Jones has been decent this year playing behind a terrible offensive line and he’s undervalued due to his 36.6 rushing yards per game. Jones also has a 61% catchable deep-ball rate, which ranks 3rd among qualifying quarterbacks. McCoy averaged just 3.1 yards per pass play in relief of Jones last Sunday and has a career average of only 5.4 yppp while playing mostly with better offensive talent than this year’s Giants have. I do not expect McCoy to improve much this week against an improving Seahawks defense. Seattle’s defense is better with CB Shaquill Griffin back on the field, as Griffin has allowed 0.66 yards per cover snap less than backup cornerback DJ Reed this season. Edge defender Carlos Dunlap ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency since joining the Seahawks in week 9 and Giants tackles Andrew Thomas and Cameron Fleming have surrendered 69 pressures combined. However, Dunlap’s status is in question with a foot injury, although coach Pete Carroll said it was nothing serious and I’d say he’s 75% likely to play. McCoy will struggle as a passer and likely won’t be bailed out by New York’s ground game as Seattle’s rush defense ranks 3rd in the league.

Giants’ cornerback James Bradberry is allowing just 0.81 yards per cover snap (12th) and we’ll likely see him in shadow coverage on DK Metcalf. However, Metcalf has destroyed shadow coverage this season, averaging 12.8 yards per target across from elite corners Patrick Peterson, Tre’Davious White, Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, Stephon Gilmore, and Darius Slay. Tyler Lockett should face little resistance on the inside as Darnay Holmes is surrendering 1.41 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 19th out of 24 qualifying nickelbacks. Russell Wilson should have time in the pocket to find Metcalf and Lockett downfield as LG Mike Iupati has not allowed a sack in 237 pass blocking snaps and he should contain interior defender Leonard Williams, who ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency.

Our model favors the Seahawks by 19.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.4 points, and I think the line is low here because of Seattle’s reputation of playing close games. While it’s true that the Seahawks have won just one game by more than 10 points they have also never been favored by 7 points or more this season and are 4-1 ATS when favored by 4 points or more – so it’s not like they’ve played poorly as a favorite. Seattle is a 2-Star Best Bet at -11.5 or less and 1-Star up to -12.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Seahawks
NYG
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.7 0.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.5% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 7.5% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 2.4% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.1% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.4% 0.0%
  • NYPP 5.5 0.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.4 0.0
  • RB YPR 3.4 0.0
  • Stuff Rate 22.1% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.8% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 45.9% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 0.0




Game

  • All Snaps 63.1 0.0
  • Early Down Succ 46.4% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 45.1% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.5% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 0.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 0.0
  • Run Ratio 41.6% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -0.3 0.3
 
  • Points 19.5 23.0
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