Game Analysis

Note: The line has dropped to +6 but NY Giants are still a Strong Opinion.

Strong Opinion – NY Giants (+6.5 -115) over PITTSBURGH

• The Giants offense fell apart last week without starting left tackle Andrew Thomas, but I expect them to look better on Monday night. Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt has 4.5 sacks (14th) and interior defender Cameron Heyward has 22 pressures (6th) but neither will line up across from the left tackle. Watt has only 7 snaps across from left tackles in the previous three seasons.
• New York RT Jermaine Eluemunor ranks 15th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will contain Watt while Heyward will be limited by LG Jon Runyan, who ranks 17th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Pittsburgh’s defense leads the NFL with a 37% Cover 3 rate, which offers a favorable matchup for Daniel Jones. The Giants yppp against Cover 3 is 24% more than other coverages (8th).
• The Steelers’ 3.4 points per drive in Russell Wilson’s first start was the highest they’ve had in the last three seasons.
• Pittsburgh RB Najee Harris had 102 rushing yards versus the Jets and they will continue giving him the ball, as New York’s defense is allowing a league-high 5.4 yards per rush.
• Wilson averaged 16.7 yppp on under-center play-action dropbacks last week. Wilson was looking downfield to WR George Pickens, who averaged a season-high 16.6 air yards per target last Sunday night. Giants Deonte Banks is surrendering 1.51 yards per cover snap (8th-worst) and he will struggle when lined up across from Pickens on play-action dropbacks.
• However, it is possible Wilson will not have enough time to throw deep balls to Pickens. Steelers C Zach Frazier was 5th in pass-blocking efficiency before an ankle sprain forced him out of the lineup. Pittsburgh starting RG James Daniels is also sidelined and he along with Frazier are worth 1.3 points according to our numbers. Backup C Ryan McCollum and backup guard Mason McCormick will not be able to hinder New York interior defender Dexter Lawrence, who leads the NFL with 9.0 sacks.
• Giants edge defender Brian Burns has 27 pressures (12th) and edge defender Azeez Ojulari ranks 17th in pass-rushing efficiency. The pair will wreak havoc across from Pittsburgh RT Broderick Jones, who has surrendered a league-high 6 sacks.
• Our model favors the Steelers by 6.5 with a predicted total of 38.5.
• There is no line value based solely on the model but the Giants apply to a very good 236-117-10 ATS contrary indicator and this is the type of game that the Steelers traditionally haven’t been at their best under coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin’s teams are at their best in division games, against better teams, and in games after a loss. However, The Steelers are just 7-30 ATS under Tomlin when favored by 3 points or more after a victory when facing a non-division opponent with a win percentage of 0.400 or less.

NY Giants are a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.