Game Analysis

Note: I bet this game on Monday morning when the line was -7. Still a Best Bet at -8 or less.

1-Star Best Bet – *PHILADELPHIA (-7) over NY Giants

1-Star Best Bet Teaser – KC (-2.5) with Philly (-1)

· These teams met in the regular season finale just two weeks ago, but it wasn’t a serious game. With New York locked into the 6-seed the Giants’ best players all rested and the Eagles knew they could beat the backups with a vanilla gameplan and without Jalen Hurts risking further injury by running the ball.

· Philadelphia was favored by 7 on the road at New York in week 14 which should be the baseline for this spread. The Eagles won 48-22 and seven of New York’s points came from a blocked punt. The Giants also scored an additional touchdown in garbage time when they had already put backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in the game.

· We now have Philadelphia favored by a touchdown again despite the change in home field and the Eagles coming off a bye. This can only be explained by the market’s hesitation regarding the health of Jalen Hurts and overvaluing New York’s win against an overrated Vikings team, who finished the year with a 13-4 record despite averaging -0.5 net yards per play (26th).

· Hurts has been dealing with a shoulder issue for weeks, but he is officially off the injury report and I expect the Pro Bowl quarterback to be pretty much fully effective on Saturday night.

· Defenses must account for Hurts in the ground game and Philadelphia’s offense gained 8.2 yards per carry in week 10 when the Giants were playing the starters.

· New York’s defense ranked 30th in Rush EPA this year and the Giants surrendered 1.95 yards before contact on runs. No other defense remaining in the playoffs allows more than 1.5 yards before contact. The Eagles were the league’s only offense to have a better than 50% rush success rate and they will move the ball at will on the ground in this game.

· DT Dexter Lawrence led the Giants with 8 pressures last week and 5 came aligned directly across from the center. Lawrence had 21 more pressures aligned as a zero-technique than anyone else in the NFL this season, but he will be shut down this week versus C Jason Kelce, who ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency. Lawrence got a sack in half of his 14 games since the start of October but Kelce shut him out in week 14 (Lawrence sat in the regular season finale game).

· Philadelphia LG Landon Dickerson conceded only 18 pressures this season, the 6th-fewest among guards with at least 600 pass blocking snaps. Dickerson will shut down New York interior defender Leonard Williams, who ranked 17th in pass rushing efficiency this year.

· The Eagles offensive line will get back right tackle Lane Johnson, who missed the last two regular season games with an abductor injury to his groin. Johnson didn’t allow a sack or a hit all season long and surrendered just nine hurries.

· Edge defender Azeez Ojulari led the Giants with a 4.4% sack rate this year but took a knee to his quad during the Vikings game last week and could not play through it. Ojulari will be banged-up at best on Saturday.

· New York is the league’s most blitz-heavy defense (40%), which leads to plenty of open space for opposing tight ends. Minnesota’s TJ Hockenson had 10 receptions for 129 yards last week and the Giants surrendered 7.9 yards per target to opposing TEs (24th). Philadelphia tight end Dallas Goedert led all receivers regardless of position this season averaging 0.65 EPA/target and Hurts will look for him when New York defensive coordinator Wink Martindale dials up the blitz.

· Giants CB Adoree’ Jackson ranked 24th in coverage grade by PFF before missing the final seven games of the season. Jackson returned for the opening round of the playoffs last week and limited WR Justin Jefferson to 47 yards on 9 targets in shadow coverage. Jefferson was also bracketed on 17 of his routes last week to give Jackson some extra assistance.

· However, unlike the Vikings the Eagles have two dangerous wide receivers so the Giants will not be able to use the same strategy with Jackson and bracketed coverage to one side of the field. DeVonta Smith averaged 0.44 EPA/target (9th) and AJ Brown gained 0.39 EPA/target (15th) this year.

· New York’s offense called Daniel Jones’ number on 42% of the designed runs on Wild Card weekend compared to 16% in the regular season. Brian Daboll clearly wants his quarterback to be a staple in the ground game when it is win or go home. Jones also had some scrambles and finished with 78 rushing yards on 17 carries in Minnesota.

· Philadelphia’s defense allowed a league-high 48% rush success rate through the first 10 weeks of 2022. Then, the Eagles signed interior defenders Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. Philadelphia’s defense conceded just a 38% rush success rate the final eight games of the season (10th) and they should limit New York’s ground game on designed runs.

· Saquon Barkley will also be limited catching passes out of the backfield as Philadelphia’s defense allowed just 4.8 yards per target to opposing running backs (5th).

· The Giants trailed by 4+ points on 43% offensive snaps in the first 10 weeks of the year but only had a 55% pass play rate. Daboll has had more confidence in Jones to throw down the stretch, as the Giants have had a 65% pass play rate since week 11 despite trailing by 4+ on only 36% of offensive snaps.

· Eagles backup nickelback Josiah Scott allowed 0.52 more yards per cover snap in the slot than starter Avonte Maddox. Scott will struggle on the inside this week versus New York WR Richie James, whose 62% success rate ranked 3rd this season.

· Giants WR Isaiah Hodgins has scored in five of his last six games and is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season while New York WR Darius Slayton gained 0.50 EPA/target this season (3rd). However, Philadelphia’s outside cornerbacks should limit their production, as James Bradberry ranked 7th in coverage grade by PFF and Darius Slay ranked 12th in coverage grade.

· The Eagles lead the NFL with 4.1 sacks per game, nearly a full sack more than the second-best team at getting to the quarterback.

· Rotation is critical for Philadelphia with seven defensive linemen having 200 pass rushing snaps this year. The Eagles come at you from both directions with a balanced 52% of pressures on the right side and 48% from the left. Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox both rank top 20 in pressures from the interior while Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat both rank top 20 in sacks from the edge.

· The Giants have one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL as left tackle Andrew Thomas ranked 8th pass blocking efficiency this season and didn’t allow a sack, hit or hurry last week. However, the rest of New York’s offensive line is horrible which is the reason they ranked 26th in pass blocking efficiency as a unit despite having Thomas.

· The main culprits on the Giants offensive line are rookie RT Evan Neal and RG Mark Glowinski. Neal ranked 55th in pass blocking efficiency in 2022 out of just 56 qualifying tackles and surrendered seven pressures last game. Glowinski allowed five sacks this year, which was the 5th-most among guards.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 11.6 points, with a predicted total of 46.9 points, and Philly applies to a 61-20-1 ATS playoff home team situation while the Giants are playing on the road for a third consecutive week (118-146-1 ATS, including 21-32-1 ATS in the playoffs following a win).

Philadelphia is a 1-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and are also part of the 1-Star Best Bet 6-point teaser with Kansas City (both at -2.5 or less only).