Game Analysis
Lean – PHILADELPHIA (-9.5) over NY Giants
Lean – Under (46)
Daniel Jones will miss Monday’s night game and I believe the rookie is a better quarterback than Eli Manning. Jones has a higher completion percentage above expectation than Manning did each of the previous three seasons according to Next Gen Stats. Jones also ranked higher in QBR than Manning has the last three years. However, there is reason to believe Manning will outplay New York’s year-to-date offensive numbers because Jones was a turnover machine and the Giants will finally have all their weapons on the field. New York has not had one game this season with Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, and Sterling Shepard all in uniform, which will be the case on Sunday. Barkley is gaining just 1.10 yards per route run (2nd-worst) but Engram should be productive against an Eagles secondary ranked below average versus opposing tight ends. Furthermore, Tate and Shepard should find success on the inside across from Avonte Maddox, who is surrendering 1.35 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst).
Alshon Jeffery recorded 137 receiving yards, 8 first downs, and scored a touchdown in his return from injury last week, albeit against a porous Dolphins secondary. Jeffrey has another easy matchup on Sunday, particularly when he is lined up across from DeAndre Baker, who ranks 84th out of 86 qualifying cornerbacks conceding 1.71 yards per cover snap. Carson Wentz is targeting tight ends on 36.4% of passes (2nd-most) but Zach Ertz is below 2 yards per route run for the first time since 2016. The Giants are allowing only 6.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends (8th) but probably won’t be as solid without safety Jabrill Peppers on the field.
The slight downgrade in quarterback is essentially cancelled out by the slight upgrade in weapons for New York’s offense. Philadelphia may need to go undefeated down the stretch to make the playoffs so they should be focused, especially after losing to Miami last week. Our model favors the Eagles by 11.0 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points. I’ll lean with Philly at -9.5 or less and I’ll lean under based on some line value and a 748-539-16 Under situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.2
34.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.2%
49.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.8%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.3%
20.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.3%
46.0%
-
NYPP
5.4
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.8
29.6
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.1%
24.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.6%
40.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.0%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
63.0
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
44.2%
47.0%
-
Succ Rate
42.9%
45.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
47.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.0%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
29.2
-
Run Ratio
34.6%
46.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
30.1
-
Game Control
-4.9
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.2
38.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.3%
42.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
22.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.6%
42.5%
-
NYPP
5.8
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.8
22.8
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
18.0%
29.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.5%
41.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.9%
45.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.9
60.9
-
Early Down Succ
50.7%
43.9%
-
Succ Rate
48.8%
42.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.2%
44.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
27.8
-
Run Ratio
41.8%
37.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.1
29.8
-
Game Control
-1.2
1.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DAL |
17 – 35 L |
-11.2 |
55.1% /
71.9% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
12.7 |
70.6% /
36.7% |
11.8% /
16.7% |
8.9 /
3.0 |
66 /
62 |
67.3% /
56.0% |
59.1% /
54.8% |
41.7% /
50.6% |
7.1 /
8.0 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
25.8% /
48.4% |
21.1 /
23.6 |
| 2 |
BUF |
14 – 28 L |
-8.9 |
45.7% /
42.4% |
2.2% /
9.1% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
7.2 |
70.0% /
58.8% |
5.0% /
17.6% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
66 /
67 |
59.6% /
55.8% |
53.0% /
50.7% |
38.9% /
32.7% |
5.6 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.3% /
50.7% |
28.5 /
24.8 |
| 3 |
@TB |
32 – 31 W |
-5.4 |
39.0% /
46.3% |
12.2% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.6 /
8.7 |
31.6% /
53.1% |
26.3% /
18.8% |
3.8 /
4.5 |
60 /
73 |
32.6% /
54.4% |
36.7% /
49.3% |
60.9% /
56.5% |
6.4 /
6.8 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
43.8% |
26.3 /
30.8 |
| 4 |
WAS |
24 – 3 W |
13.4 |
54.8% /
35.5% |
0.0% /
9.7% |
6.5% /
14.3% |
7.3 /
3.9 |
48.6% /
23.5% |
18.9% /
17.6% |
4.4 /
3.2 |
68 /
48 |
49.1% /
35.1% |
51.5% /
31.3% |
48.8% /
41.5% |
5.7 /
3.7 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
54.4% /
35.4% |
26.8 /
25.9 |
| 5 |
MIN |
10 – 28 L |
-9.2 |
33.3% /
60.0% |
9.5% /
10.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
9.3 |
50.0% /
35.3% |
20.0% /
29.4% |
3.2 /
6.2 |
62 /
64 |
37.2% /
47.1% |
38.7% /
46.9% |
21.8% /
65.7% |
3.4 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
32.3% /
53.1% |
26.3 /
31.0 |
| 6 |
@NE |
14 – 35 L |
-6.7 |
34.4% /
52.3% |
3.1% /
6.8% |
9.7% /
2.4% |
5.0 /
7.1 |
31.3% /
41.2% |
18.8% /
29.4% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
48 /
78 |
38.9% /
50.8% |
33.3% /
47.4% |
34.7% /
51.5% |
4.4 /
5.5 |
2.1% /
1.3% |
33.3% /
43.6% |
26.6 /
33.3 |
| 7 |
ARI |
21 – 27 L |
-6.5 |
41.9% /
43.5% |
18.6% /
8.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
3.9 |
45.5% /
26.3% |
22.7% /
21.1% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
65 /
61 |
46.0% /
28.6% |
43.1% /
32.8% |
41.8% /
43.7% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
62.3% |
24.5 /
40.1 |
| 8 |
@DET |
26 – 31 L |
-7.1 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
6.8% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
6.6 /
8.8 |
41.7% /
20.0% |
20.8% /
36.0% |
3.3 /
2.4 |
68 /
61 |
43.4% /
33.3% |
44.1% /
37.7% |
32.7% /
49.9% |
5.4 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
35.3% /
41.0% |
27.7 /
26.4 |
| 9 |
DAL |
18 – 37 L |
-1.1 |
37.0% /
54.3% |
10.9% /
0.0% |
2.4% /
2.9% |
3.7 /
7.3 |
59.1% /
70.0% |
18.2% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
5.7 |
68 /
65 |
45.1% /
64.8% |
44.1% /
61.5% |
41.0% /
38.7% |
4.0 /
6.6 |
2.9% /
1.5% |
32.4% /
46.2% |
36.3 /
30.7 |
| 10 |
@NYJ |
27 – 34 L |
-4.1 |
32.6% /
46.9% |
13.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
6.8 |
17.6% /
27.6% |
64.7% /
31.0% |
1.4 /
2.6 |
63 /
61 |
20.9% /
39.1% |
28.6% /
37.7% |
58.4% /
44.9% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
27.0% /
47.5% |
25.9 /
29.7 |
| 12 |
@CHI |
14 – 19 L |
-3.2 |
35.1% /
44.2% |
2.7% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
3.6 /
6.3 |
38.1% /
30.8% |
23.8% /
30.8% |
5.2 /
2.5 |
58 /
69 |
42.9% /
44.2% |
36.2% /
39.1% |
43.6% /
49.0% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
37.7% |
32.9 /
31.7 |
| 13 |
GB |
13 – 31 L |
-8.4 |
40.5% /
51.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
7.4 |
55.6% /
57.7% |
25.9% /
23.1% |
3.5 /
3.0 |
64 /
59 |
47.8% /
54.5% |
46.9% /
54.2% |
42.7% /
44.4% |
5.2 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
44.1% |
20.4 /
33.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
WAS |
32 – 27 W |
-4.0 |
55.0% /
47.8% |
2.5% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
8.0 |
45.2% /
30.8% |
22.6% /
23.1% |
4.0 /
2.2 |
71 /
59 |
47.1% /
44.2% |
50.7% /
44.1% |
42.0% /
40.2% |
6.1 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
22.0% |
31.4 /
23.5 |
| 2 |
@ATL |
20 – 24 L |
-4.4 |
43.1% /
50.0% |
5.9% /
2.3% |
4.2% /
7.0% |
4.6 /
7.0 |
33.3% /
47.1% |
19.0% /
23.5% |
2.3 /
3.4 |
72 /
61 |
35.3% /
53.1% |
40.3% /
49.2% |
15.0% /
46.6% |
4.0 /
6.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
27.9% |
38.5 /
23.4 |
| 3 |
DET |
24 – 27 L |
-4.8 |
43.6% /
40.6% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
46.7% /
35.7% |
10.0% /
39.3% |
4.2 /
3.1 |
69 /
60 |
44.4% /
38.6% |
44.9% /
38.3% |
54.4% /
43.2% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
46.7% |
25.6 /
38.9 |
| 4 |
@GB |
34 – 27 W |
0.2 |
55.6% /
48.1% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
5.9 /
7.7 |
69.7% /
55.0% |
6.1% /
30.0% |
5.3 /
3.9 |
60 /
74 |
67.3% /
50.8% |
63.3% /
50.0% |
31.3% /
39.5% |
5.6 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
55.0% /
27.0% |
31.9 /
21.0 |
| 5 |
NYJ |
31 – 6 W |
16.1 |
43.3% /
25.0% |
3.3% /
27.8% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
6.0 /
1.7 |
34.5% /
42.1% |
34.5% /
26.3% |
2.9 /
3.5 |
59 /
55 |
42.9% /
35.0% |
39.0% /
30.9% |
44.2% /
25.0% |
4.5 /
2.3 |
1.7% /
1.8% |
49.2% /
34.5% |
35.2 /
27.1 |
| 6 |
@MIN |
20 – 38 L |
-10.8 |
53.5% /
63.3% |
4.7% /
3.3% |
4.9% /
3.4% |
6.8 /
10.8 |
59.1% /
37.1% |
13.6% /
34.3% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
65 /
65 |
62.0% /
54.7% |
55.4% /
49.2% |
53.0% /
52.3% |
6.2 /
6.9 |
1.5% /
1.5% |
33.8% /
53.8% |
26.2 /
33.3 |
| 7 |
@DAL |
10 – 37 L |
-15.2 |
44.8% /
60.0% |
10.3% /
10.0% |
3.8% /
3.7% |
5.8 /
7.1 |
42.9% /
44.4% |
21.4% /
16.7% |
4.1 /
5.3 |
57 /
66 |
45.7% /
49.0% |
43.9% /
51.5% |
47.0% /
39.6% |
5.0 /
6.1 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
49.1% /
54.5% |
18.8 /
41.7 |
| 8 |
@BUF |
31 – 13 W |
5.2 |
48.1% /
31.6% |
11.1% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
4.1 |
48.8% /
50.0% |
29.3% /
35.0% |
5.3 /
4.9 |
68 /
58 |
50.0% /
39.0% |
48.5% /
37.9% |
57.7% /
44.3% |
5.5 /
4.4 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
60.3% /
34.5% |
36.4 /
29.4 |
| 9 |
CHI |
22 – 14 W |
7.7 |
51.2% /
25.0% |
9.3% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
14.3% /
33.3% |
4.2 /
3.4 |
78 /
42 |
53.4% /
40.6% |
51.3% /
35.7% |
20.9% /
61.0% |
4.8 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
44.9% /
42.9% |
26.9 /
28.9 |
| 11 |
NE |
10 – 17 L |
-0.8 |
37.8% /
38.8% |
11.1% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
57.1% /
36.4% |
23.8% /
22.7% |
3.9 /
3.4 |
66 /
71 |
51.0% /
40.7% |
43.9% /
38.0% |
42.4% /
21.5% |
3.9 /
4.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
31.8% /
31.0% |
17.2 /
31.0 |
| 12 |
SEA |
9 – 17 L |
-6.8 |
56.3% /
29.0% |
6.3% /
19.4% |
4.4% /
4.0% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
52.2% /
42.3% |
21.7% /
19.2% |
4.6 /
6.7 |
71 /
57 |
60.3% /
35.7% |
54.9% /
35.1% |
22.7% /
70.1% |
4.8 /
6.1 |
4.2% /
1.8% |
32.4% /
45.6% |
26.0 /
34.7 |
| 13 |
@MIA |
31 – 37 L |
3.8 |
47.9% /
55.8% |
4.2% /
7.0% |
2.2% /
2.5% |
6.1 /
8.2 |
52.6% /
25.0% |
0.0% /
50.0% |
4.8 /
2.9 |
67 /
63 |
49.1% /
44.7% |
49.3% /
46.0% |
28.0% /
48.9% |
5.8 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.4% /
31.7% |
35.6 /
24.7 |
New York Giants
@ 
Philadelphia Eagles