Game Analysis
Lean – NY Giants (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia was favored by 9.5 on the advanced line but got exposed in New Orleans last week, surrendering 48 points on nearly 8 yards per play. The Eagles’ cornerbacks are dropping like flies. Ronald Darby tore his ACL in week 10 and Sidney Jones, Rasul Douglas, Avonte Maddox, and Jalen Mills all missed practice on Wednesday and are listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Philadelphia’s defense could ostensibly be without their top 5 cornerbacks, providing an excellent matchup for Giants’ receivers Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. Those two, and Eli Manning, will have to step up since I expect Saquon Barkley to have a tougher time versus the Eagles 10th-rated rush defense that looks to improve with interior defender Timmy Jernigan now activated off the IR.
Philadelphia might’ve found a replacement for RB Jay Ajayi with Josh Adams recording a 53% rush success rate on 34 attempts thus far and he will face New York’s declining rush defense this week. The Giants are surrendering a 48% rush success rate (24th) since trading run-stuffing DT Damon Harrison – compared to only a 40% rush success rate in the first 7 weeks (7th).
Our model sees no value in the side or total but the Giants are starting to believe in themselves with two consecutive wins coming out of their bye and the New Yorkers apply to a 67-21-3 ATS same season revenge underdog situation. I’ll lean with NYG based on the situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.6
34.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.1%
50.4%
-
Sack Rate
9.3%
3.0%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.9%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.9%
43.1%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.6
28.8
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
29.4%
21.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.7%
46.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.1%
44.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
59.2
63.0
-
Early Down Succ
44.5%
49.7%
-
Succ Rate
44.1%
48.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.5%
44.5%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
30.0
-
Run Ratio
35.6%
45.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.7
27.8
-
Game Control
-3.2
3.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.2
40.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.4%
50.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.9%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.5%
19.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.2%
45.1%
-
NYPP
6.5
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.0
22.1
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
24.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.5%
46.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.1%
48.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
64.2
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
51.7%
50.0%
-
Succ Rate
50.4%
47.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.3%
47.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
27.7
-
Run Ratio
37.1%
35.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
28.3
-
Game Control
-1.6
1.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
JAC |
15 – 20 L |
-3.9 |
28.2% /
44.1% |
5.1% /
2.9% |
2.7% /
3.0% |
5.4 /
4.9 |
34.8% /
36.7% |
30.4% /
16.7% |
5.0 /
4.6 |
62 /
64 |
31.9% /
46.8% |
30.6% /
40.6% |
38.0% /
38.8% |
5.2 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
37.1% /
46.9% |
25.3 /
31.5 |
| 2 |
@DAL |
13 – 20 L |
-10.5 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
12.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
6.4 |
47.1% /
59.3% |
35.3% /
14.8% |
2.1 /
5.2 |
67 /
52 |
33.3% /
56.8% |
38.8% /
48.1% |
18.4% /
48.3% |
3.8 /
5.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.4% /
51.9% |
27.9 /
27.6 |
| 3 |
@HOU |
27 – 22 W |
7.6 |
60.6% /
53.7% |
12.1% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
8.0 /
9.0 |
32.1% /
42.1% |
25.0% /
36.8% |
4.1 /
3.1 |
61 /
60 |
47.8% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
50.0% |
41.3% /
53.4% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
45.9% /
31.7% |
22.2 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
NO |
18 – 33 L |
-3.5 |
56.8% /
42.9% |
6.8% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
18.8% /
8.6% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
60 /
70 |
58.3% /
51.0% |
55.0% /
45.7% |
29.3% /
55.4% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
26.7% /
50.0% |
22.5 /
33.9 |
| 5 |
@CAR |
31 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
75.0% /
76.2% |
4.2% /
4.8% |
8.7% /
10.0% |
15.9 /
11.0 |
25.0% /
40.6% |
43.8% /
28.1% |
3.1 /
3.7 |
40 /
53 |
46.7% /
47.1% |
55.0% /
54.7% |
59.3% /
52.7% |
10.8 /
6.6 |
2.5% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
60.4% |
30.5 /
28.5 |
| 6 |
PHI |
13 – 34 L |
-14.8 |
34.0% /
48.6% |
8.5% /
2.7% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
7.3 |
52.9% /
51.6% |
17.6% /
16.1% |
8.6 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
39.1% /
50.0% |
58.4% /
32.7% |
6.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.6% /
45.6% |
25.5 /
31.4 |
| 7 |
@ATL |
20 – 23 L |
-4.5 |
50.0% /
57.1% |
9.5% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.5 |
35.0% /
33.3% |
40.0% /
33.3% |
3.1 /
3.2 |
62 /
63 |
46.9% /
50.0% |
45.2% /
49.2% |
60.3% /
42.2% |
7.0 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
32.3% /
33.3% |
22.4 /
19.7 |
| 8 |
WAS |
13 – 20 L |
-6.0 |
32.1% /
46.9% |
13.2% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
35.7% /
50.0% |
42.9% /
23.5% |
2.6 /
5.4 |
67 /
66 |
34.7% /
53.1% |
32.8% /
48.5% |
46.9% /
42.1% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
20.9% /
51.5% |
27.2 /
26.4 |
| 10 |
@SF |
27 – 23 W |
-1.5 |
43.8% /
43.2% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.6 /
6.8 |
34.8% /
44.8% |
30.4% /
17.2% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
55 /
66 |
39.5% /
39.6% |
40.0% /
43.9% |
53.8% /
24.3% |
5.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
43.9% |
34.5 /
25.7 |
| 11 |
TB |
38 – 35 W |
10.5 |
54.5% /
55.3% |
18.2% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
10.8% |
8.9 /
9.4 |
59.4% /
56.7% |
9.4% /
20.0% |
5.1 /
5.0 |
54 /
68 |
62.8% /
54.4% |
57.4% /
55.9% |
59.4% /
55.5% |
6.7 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.3% /
44.1% |
28.5 /
24.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
18 – 12 W |
-0.9 |
32.4% /
31.9% |
5.4% /
8.5% |
2.9% /
2.3% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
53.6% /
44.4% |
21.4% /
27.8% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
65 /
65 |
40.4% /
38.8% |
41.5% /
35.4% |
20.6% /
49.5% |
3.6 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.7% |
22.2 /
35.2 |
| 2 |
@TB |
21 – 27 L |
-11.1 |
42.0% /
60.0% |
6.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.4 /
11.2 |
54.2% /
25.0% |
20.8% /
41.7% |
3.8 /
1.8 |
74 /
59 |
48.1% /
48.9% |
45.9% /
45.8% |
36.2% /
45.3% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
2.7% /
1.7% |
32.4% /
40.7% |
25.5 /
27.2 |
| 3 |
IND |
20 – 16 W |
0.6 |
47.6% /
39.5% |
11.9% /
4.7% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
3.3 |
60.0% /
38.5% |
28.6% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
5.2 |
77 /
56 |
55.6% /
45.2% |
53.2% /
39.3% |
34.0% /
46.9% |
4.9 /
3.7 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
23.2% |
21.6 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@TEN |
23 – 26 L |
2.6 |
46.3% /
47.8% |
7.4% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
5.8 /
7.1 |
36.4% /
39.1% |
13.6% /
34.8% |
5.3 /
3.1 |
76 /
69 |
45.9% /
47.9% |
43.4% /
44.9% |
41.0% /
38.9% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
28.9% /
33.3% |
28.0 /
24.4 |
| 5 |
MIN |
21 – 23 L |
-7.0 |
80.8% /
74.2% |
11.5% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.9 /
9.6 |
58.8% /
44.0% |
11.8% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
43 /
56 |
63.6% /
62.5% |
72.1% /
60.7% |
51.9% /
48.8% |
8.5 /
6.7 |
4.7% /
1.8% |
39.5% /
44.6% |
30.9 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
@NYG |
34 – 13 W |
14.8 |
48.6% /
34.0% |
2.7% /
8.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.3 /
5.4 |
51.6% /
52.9% |
16.1% /
17.6% |
3.5 /
8.6 |
68 /
64 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
50.0% /
39.1% |
32.7% /
58.4% |
5.6 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
26.6% |
31.4 /
25.5 |
| 7 |
CAR |
17 – 21 L |
6.8 |
51.2% /
51.2% |
9.8% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.1 |
54.2% /
61.1% |
25.0% /
16.7% |
2.4 /
6.8 |
65 /
59 |
57.1% /
57.8% |
52.3% /
54.2% |
37.7% /
50.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
36.9% /
30.5% |
19.8 /
26.3 |
| 8 |
@JAC |
24 – 18 W |
2.2 |
52.9% /
44.4% |
11.8% /
8.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.9 |
41.9% /
64.7% |
12.9% /
17.6% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
65 /
62 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
47.7% /
50.0% |
62.6% /
34.3% |
6.1 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
47.7% /
27.4% |
26.9 /
29.0 |
| 10 |
DAL |
20 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
55.6% /
50.0% |
4.4% /
10.0% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.0 |
56.3% /
46.4% |
31.3% /
21.4% |
4.4 /
6.1 |
61 /
68 |
61.2% /
47.1% |
55.7% /
48.5% |
32.1% /
50.2% |
6.9 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.2% /
41.2% |
32.3 /
25.6 |
| 11 |
@NO |
7 – 48 L |
-20.4 |
36.1% /
68.8% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
11.7 |
58.3% /
44.7% |
25.0% /
26.3% |
4.8 /
4.6 |
48 /
70 |
47.2% /
57.1% |
41.7% /
55.7% |
14.3% /
56.5% |
4.1 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
54.3% |
25.1 /
27.2 |
New York Giants
@ 
Philadelphia Eagles