New York Giants @

Oakland Raiders

Sun, Dec 3
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 375
Odds: Oakland Raiders -9, Total: 41.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – NEW YORK GIANTS (+9) over Oakland

Lean – Over 41.5

Eli Manning’s performance has steadily declined over the last 3 years since entering his mid-30s and my quarterback model does not expect Geno Smith to be a downgrade from the two-time Super Bowl champion. While Smith’s throwing ability isn’t anything to write home about, he will make his first start against a soft Oakland pass defense ranked 31st in my metrics and he also adds value on the ground with a career 4.8 yards per rush.

New York’s defense recorded 6 sacks last week but they will likely fare worse against a Raiders offensive line allowing the second-fewest pressures in the NFL. I expect Derek Carr to have plenty of time in the pocket but he will not have Michael Crabtree (suspension) or Amari Cooper (concussion) available on Sunday, which could affect his production – although neither receiver is having a good season. Those two receivers have combined for just 6.6 yards per target this season while Seth Roberts, Jalen Richard, and Cordarrelle Patterson have combined for 7.0 YPT. Obviously, those guys aren’t getting the attention from the defense that Crab and Coop get but I don’t think there will be much drop-off, if any, from the absence of the two ‘star’ receivers and I expect Carr to look for TE Jared Cook even more, which is a positive given Cook’s 8.3 YPT.

My model favors Oakland by just 5 ½ points without any adjustment for the Raiders’ receivers being out (and no adjustment for Smith taking over for Manning because none was warranted) so the value is with the Giants. I’ll lean with New York plus the points and I’ll also lean over on the basis of a pretty strong over indicator (and out model projects 43.5 points)

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Raiders
NYG
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.5 36.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 41.6% 44.2%
  • Sack Rate 6.8% 5.0%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.0% 18.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 28.6% 45.3%
  • NYPP 5.2 7.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.6 31.7
  • RB YPR 3.7 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 21.2% 22.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.7% 44.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.8% 43.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 62.2 68.4
  • Early Down Succ 44.6% 46.2%
  • Succ Rate 41.1% 43.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 30.9% 47.5%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.3 28.8
  • Run Ratio 37.9% 47.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.4 30.4
  • Game Control -3.4 3.4
 
  • Points 15.6 24.3
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