Game Analysis
Lean – NEW YORK GIANTS (+9) over Oakland
Lean – Over 41.5
Eli Manning’s performance has steadily declined over the last 3 years since entering his mid-30s and my quarterback model does not expect Geno Smith to be a downgrade from the two-time Super Bowl champion. While Smith’s throwing ability isn’t anything to write home about, he will make his first start against a soft Oakland pass defense ranked 31st in my metrics and he also adds value on the ground with a career 4.8 yards per rush.
New York’s defense recorded 6 sacks last week but they will likely fare worse against a Raiders offensive line allowing the second-fewest pressures in the NFL. I expect Derek Carr to have plenty of time in the pocket but he will not have Michael Crabtree (suspension) or Amari Cooper (concussion) available on Sunday, which could affect his production – although neither receiver is having a good season. Those two receivers have combined for just 6.6 yards per target this season while Seth Roberts, Jalen Richard, and Cordarrelle Patterson have combined for 7.0 YPT. Obviously, those guys aren’t getting the attention from the defense that Crab and Coop get but I don’t think there will be much drop-off, if any, from the absence of the two ‘star’ receivers and I expect Carr to look for TE Jared Cook even more, which is a positive given Cook’s 8.3 YPT.
My model favors Oakland by just 5 ½ points without any adjustment for the Raiders’ receivers being out (and no adjustment for Smith taking over for Manning because none was warranted) so the value is with the Giants. I’ll lean with New York plus the points and I’ll also lean over on the basis of a pretty strong over indicator (and out model projects 43.5 points)
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.5
36.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.6%
44.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.8%
5.0%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.0%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.6%
45.3%
-
NYPP
5.2
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.6
31.7
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
21.2%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.7%
44.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.8%
43.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
68.4
-
Early Down Succ
44.6%
46.2%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
43.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
30.9%
47.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.3
28.8
-
Run Ratio
37.9%
47.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
30.4
-
Game Control
-3.4
3.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.9
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.6%
47.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
0.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.2%
15.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.0%
43.0%
-
NYPP
6.6
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
28.1
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
24.3%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
39.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.9%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
60.5
62.9
-
Early Down Succ
48.2%
45.6%
-
Succ Rate
45.2%
44.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.5%
41.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.8
27.2
-
Run Ratio
39.1%
44.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
26.9
-
Game Control
-2.1
2.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DAL |
3 – 19 L |
-9.1 |
48.8% / 48.7% |
7.3% / 2.6% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 6.7 |
23.1% / 54.8% |
7.7% / 19.4% |
2.8 / 4.2 |
54 / 70 |
46.2% / 50.9% |
42.6% / 51.4% |
27.8% / 37.0% |
4.3 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
24.1% / 44.3% |
16.0 / 29.4 |
2 |
DET |
10 – 24 L |
-7.5 |
37.8% / 33.3% |
13.5% / 12.5% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
38.9% / 43.8% |
27.8% / 34.4% |
3.4 / 4.3 |
55 / 56 |
41.5% / 37.5% |
38.2% / 39.3% |
30.0% / 42.4% |
4.9 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
32.7% / 57.1% |
24.3 / 37.4 |
3 |
@PHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
59.6% / 41.2% |
0.0% / 8.8% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 4.7 |
23.5% / 48.7% |
23.5% / 23.1% |
2.9 / 5.0 |
64 / 73 |
55.8% / 47.3% |
50.0% / 45.2% |
23.4% / 30.4% |
6.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
26.6% / 53.4% |
34.6 / 21.5 |
4 |
@TB |
23 – 25 L |
-5.2 |
49.0% / 48.7% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 8.3 |
35.7% / 42.3% |
28.6% / 19.2% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
77 / 65 |
44.1% / 56.3% |
44.2% / 46.2% |
27.4% / 57.3% |
4.9 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.4% / 40.0% |
27.7 / 29.9 |
5 |
LAC |
22 – 27 L |
2.4 |
34.1% / 36.4% |
12.2% / 0.0% |
2.8% / 2.3% |
4.5 / 5.9 |
72.0% / 31.3% |
12.0% / 21.9% |
6.1 / 3.9 |
66 / 76 |
54.0% / 34.0% |
48.5% / 34.2% |
46.3% / 36.2% |
5.1 / 5.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
37.9% / 42.1% |
28.2 / 29.0 |
6 |
@DEN |
23 – 10 W |
10.4 |
40.9% / 35.1% |
13.6% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.4 / 6.4 |
18.8% / 44.4% |
40.6% / 11.1% |
4.6 / 2.6 |
54 / 75 |
27.5% / 40.0% |
27.8% / 37.3% |
53.4% / 47.0% |
4.9 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
59.3% / 24.0% |
31.2 / 27.0 |
7 |
SEA |
7 – 24 L |
-1.0 |
22.5% / 50.0% |
2.5% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.3 / 8.0 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
17.6% / 21.9% |
2.7 / 3.3 |
57 / 72 |
31.8% / 53.6% |
28.1% / 50.0% |
14.1% / 43.9% |
3.1 / 5.9 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
29.8% / 44.4% |
22.8 / 33.8 |
9 |
LA |
17 – 51 L |
-19.5 |
42.5% / 54.5% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 14.1 |
59.3% / 37.5% |
11.1% / 40.0% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
67 / 62 |
51.0% / 44.7% |
49.3% / 43.5% |
38.1% / 71.3% |
4.8 / 7.6 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 64.5% |
27.0 / 40.8 |
10 |
@SF |
21 – 31 L |
-4.9 |
55.0% / 60.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.0% |
6.5 / 11.5 |
52.2% / 41.7% |
21.7% / 19.4% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
63 / 61 |
56.5% / 51.2% |
54.0% / 49.2% |
35.6% / 67.7% |
5.9 / 7.8 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
36.5% / 59.0% |
26.6 / 31.9 |
11 |
KC |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
38.9% / 42.9% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
2.8% / 7.3% |
5.7 / 5.5 |
40.0% / 51.7% |
22.9% / 10.3% |
3.2 / 4.6 |
71 / 71 |
45.1% / 49.2% |
39.4% / 46.5% |
22.0% / 41.6% |
4.5 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 40.8% |
30.2 / 21.5 |
12 |
@WAS |
10 – 20 L |
-0.8 |
29.0% / 35.1% |
12.9% / 16.2% |
3.7% / 3.2% |
2.8 / 5.4 |
32.0% / 38.2% |
20.0% / 23.5% |
3.4 / 3.6 |
56 / 71 |
36.8% / 44.0% |
30.4% / 36.6% |
22.2% / 47.7% |
3.1 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 47.9% |
21.8 / 32.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@TEN |
26 – 16 W |
4.4 |
55.9% / 50.0% |
5.9% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.1 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
16.7% / 28.6% |
3.7 / 4.5 |
64 / 63 |
57.1% / 46.9% |
53.1% / 47.6% |
26.7% / 33.1% |
5.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.9% / 33.3% |
29.3 / 22.4 |
2 |
NYJ |
45 – 20 W |
11.6 |
64.3% / 44.8% |
0.0% / 13.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 5.0 |
40.7% / 61.5% |
33.3% / 19.2% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
55 / 55 |
48.8% / 53.7% |
52.7% / 52.7% |
56.1% / 43.0% |
7.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
49.1% / 47.3% |
35.7 / 27.1 |
3 |
@WAS |
10 – 27 L |
-11.9 |
37.1% / 61.3% |
11.4% / 3.2% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
2.7 / 11.5 |
21.4% / 35.3% |
21.4% / 17.6% |
2.4 / 3.4 |
49 / 65 |
42.4% / 48.0% |
32.7% / 47.7% |
24.8% / 53.2% |
2.6 / 7.3 |
2.0% / 3.1% |
28.6% / 52.3% |
31.7 / 28.7 |
4 |
@DEN |
10 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
36.8% / 33.3% |
7.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.2 |
33.3% / 31.4% |
46.7% / 22.9% |
1.6 / 4.2 |
53 / 65 |
44.7% / 36.4% |
35.8% / 32.3% |
52.8% / 39.5% |
4.8 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.3% / 53.8% |
24.7 / 28.8 |
5 |
BAL |
17 – 30 L |
-11.8 |
34.5% / 42.3% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 8.5 |
56.0% / 44.2% |
24.0% / 9.3% |
4.3 / 3.4 |
54 / 69 |
43.9% / 46.9% |
44.4% / 43.5% |
40.0% / 46.5% |
4.5 / 5.3 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
46.3% / 62.3% |
24.9 / 34.0 |
6 |
LAC |
16 – 17 L |
3.2 |
51.6% / 45.9% |
3.2% / 2.7% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 7.1 |
50.0% / 21.9% |
31.8% / 18.8% |
5.0 / 2.6 |
53 / 69 |
52.5% / 34.0% |
50.9% / 34.8% |
35.4% / 33.6% |
5.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
41.5% / 46.4% |
31.7 / 24.7 |
7 |
KC |
31 – 30 W |
-3.0 |
44.2% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 8.9 |
38.1% / 47.8% |
19.0% / 26.1% |
4.2 / 4.1 |
73 / 60 |
40.7% / 46.7% |
42.5% / 48.3% |
45.7% / 52.9% |
6.9 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 38.3% |
20.6 / 22.9 |
8 |
@BUF |
14 – 34 L |
-5.5 |
49.0% / 55.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.1% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.1 |
42.9% / 45.0% |
14.3% / 17.5% |
3.9 / 4.2 |
63 / 67 |
51.0% / 55.3% |
47.6% / 49.3% |
28.9% / 48.6% |
5.8 / 5.0 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
22.2% / 59.7% |
22.4 / 35.7 |
9 |
@MIA |
27 – 24 W |
3.2 |
54.8% / 58.1% |
3.2% / 2.3% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
9.5 / 7.2 |
23.3% / 27.8% |
23.3% / 38.9% |
2.9 / 4.8 |
61 / 61 |
39.0% / 52.1% |
39.3% / 49.2% |
59.7% / 26.8% |
6.3 / 6.5 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
49.2% / 29.5% |
28.2 / 27.1 |
11 |
NE |
8 – 33 L |
-15.9 |
45.3% / 56.1% |
7.5% / 9.8% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 8.1 |
76.2% / 55.0% |
14.3% / 25.0% |
5.2 / 4.5 |
74 / 61 |
59.6% / 60.4% |
54.1% / 55.7% |
24.4% / 40.2% |
4.6 / 6.9 |
8.1% / 0.0% |
28.4% / 32.8% |
23.0 / 23.1 |
12 |
DEN |
21 – 14 W |
9.5 |
50.0% / 30.0% |
7.7% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
9.4 / 4.0 |
40.0% / 17.6% |
22.5% / 29.4% |
2.7 / 3.5 |
66 / 57 |
50.0% / 21.4% |
43.9% / 26.3% |
50.7% / 42.0% |
5.3 / 3.8 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
60.6% / 29.8% |
32.7 / 21.7 |