Game Analysis

Lean – NY Giants (+2) over NEW ORLEANS

Lean – Over (42)

• Jaxon Dart had an intriguing first NFL start last week while averaging 0.01 EPA/play (20th) with a 53% success rate (11th). Dart kept the ball out of harm’s way and he finished with 10 rushes for 54 yards.
• Dart went against a Chargers defense conceding only 4.5 yppp (2nd) and this week he’s up against a Saints defense allowing 6.7 yppp (23rd) with a league-low 25% pressure rate.
• The Saints offense has been more run-heavy than they appear. After adjusting for the situation, New Orleans has the 2nd-highest run-play rate in the NFL by our numbers and they have a favorable matchup on Sunday as New York’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.17 EPA/rush.
• The Giants are conceding just a 39% success rate to opposing tight ends (3rd) and they will shut down TE Juwan Johnson if he is able to suit up. Johnson has 31 targets (3rd).
• Saints RG Cesar Ruiz is likely out and backup Torricelli Simpkins is surrendering 8.7% pressure rate. Ruiz was allowing a 3.5% pressure rate.
• However, New York’s main threat on the interior defensive line is All-Pro Dexter Lawrence and he lines up across from centers. Erik McCoy leads centers in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model makes New Orleans a 1.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.9 and the Saints apply to a 35-85-4 ATS home after 2 road losses situation.