Game Analysis

Lean – MINNESOTA (-4) vs NY Giants

· Both of these teams are coming off massive wins with the Giants taking a game lead over the Commanders in the NFC East and the Vikings overcoming a 33-point deficit to complete the largest comeback in NFL history.

· New York rookie edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux strip sacked Taylor Heinicke and then recovered the fumble for a touchdown in the first half last week raising New York’s win probability from 32% to 49%. The Giants were thoroughly outplayed by the Commanders and would not have won without that sack.

· New York had 2.1 fewer yards per play and Washington had eight snaps in the Red Zone on the final two drives resulting in no points.

· Thibodeaux will be shut down in this game against Minnesota left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency.

· However, Minnesota’s interior offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL and they are surrendering 9 pressure per game. The Vikings will likely have backup center Austin Schlottmann on the field again after he surrendered 4 pressures last week. Giants DT Dexter Lawrence ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency.

· Cousins will be under siege as New York’s defense leads the NFL with a 41% blitz rate. Cousins has just 27% first down rate versus the blitz this season compared to a 35% first down rate when not blitzed.

· Cousins’ only hope will be getting it out quickly to tight end TJ Hockenson, who is averaging 8.1 targets per game since arriving in Minnesota. The Giants are allowing 8.3 yards per target to opposing TEs (26th).

· Vikings CB Patrick Peterson ranks 3rd in coverage grade by PFF and opposite him, starting cornerback Cam Dantzler (ankle/illness) is off the injury report after missing two days of practice last week and watching the game from the sideline.

· Daniel Jones will instead attack Minnesota’s linebackers with throws to running back Saquon Barkley against a Vikings defense allowing 6.4 yards per target to RBs (27th).

· Giants right tackle Evan Neal allowed five pressures against Washington and garnered two penalties. Neal will struggle versus Danielle Hunter, who has 8.5 sacks (19th).

· Minnesota edge defender Za’Darius Smith leads the NFL with 72 pressures but he will be contained by LT Andrew Thomas, who is tied with Darrisaw for 7th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors Minnesota by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.1 points, and the Giants apply to a 9-50-2 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s divisional upset win over Washington.