Game Analysis

Lean – Under (47.5) – MIAMI (-11.5) vs NY Giants

· Daniel Jones is averaging only 4.1 yppp (33rd) and he’s lost 37 expected points to interceptions after losing just 28 expected points to interceptions all of last season.

· Jones leads all quarterbacks with 17 scrambles because his offensive line can’t hold up and it doesn’t look like it’ll improve this week as the Giants could be without LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz, and rotation piece Shane Lemieux.

· New York RT Evan Neal has surrendered a league-high 20 pressures, and he will struggle across from edge defender Jaelan Phillips, who will be back for Miami’s defense this week after missing the last game. Phillips ranked 9th in pass-rushing efficiency last season.

· Dolphins’ interior defender Christian Wilkins has 10 pressures (24th) and he will be a handful for banged-up Giants RG Marcus McKethan, who ranks 7th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· New York’s offense might get RB Saquon Barkley back in uniform, but he won’t be able to help Daniel Jones on screens this Sunday. Miami’s defense is conceding a 39% success rate when opponents target running backs (10th).

· Tua Tagovailoa’s yards per pass versus the blitz is 30% lower than against a standard pass rush (30th) and the Giants have a 58.9% blitz rate (2nd-highest).

· Tagovailoa will be glad to get back starting center Connor Williams to help him set the protections against the blitz as well as improve the pass protection. Williams led all centers in pass blocking efficiency heading into week 4 and then backup Liam Eichenberg surrendered two sacks in Buffalo. Williams will limit New York NT Dexter Lawrence, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors Miami by just 9.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.2 points, but the matchups favor the Dolphins and 11.5 is the fair line.