Game Analysis
Lean – NY Giants (+13) over LA RAMS
New York’s offense has been dreadful under Jason Garrett so far, ranking 31st in our year-to-date numbers. The Giants are failing to gain any yardage on 32% of their rushing attempts, the highest rate in the NFL (league average is 17%), and quarterback Daniel Jones has faced a higher pressure rate than any other QB (42%). The Giants’ offense likely won’t get any better on Sunday. Aaron Donald had 5 pressures including 2 sacks last week and the All-Pro interior defender is the only player in the league with 20 pressures thus far. Jones is coming off his least accurate game as a pro (by completion percentage versus expectation) and he will need to get the ball out quickly in this matchup.
Rams top CB Jalen Ramsey has logged 20 coverage snaps on the outside in man and has yet to see a single target. However, Ramsey has not been traveling into the slot this season and the Rams allowed Bills’ slot-receiver Cole Beasley to gain 100 receiving yards last week. The Giants’ Golden Tate could have some opportunities on the inside in this game.
Giants new CB James Bradberry has 8 combined pass breakups and interceptions in 2020, three more than any other cornerback. However, New York’s secondary is likely to struggle to defend Cooper Kupp on the inside, as nickelback Darnay Holmes is surrendering 1.66 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th-worst).
Our model favors the Rams by only 10.1 points, with a predicted total of 47.4 points and I’ll lean with the Giants based on the value even though I’m uncomfortable doing so.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.7
34.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.8%
50.5%
-
Sack Rate
7.3%
7.9%
-
Int Rate
3.5%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
10.9%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.0%
22.1%
-
NYPP
5.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
17.7
32.3
-
RB YPR
1.9
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
34.1%
24.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.3%
40.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.5%
48.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
58.3
67.0
-
Early Down Succ
42.0%
41.8%
-
Succ Rate
42.0%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.1%
32.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.9%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.5
31.4
-
Run Ratio
30.3%
48.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
31.8
-
Game Control
-7.1
7.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.3
40.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
61.0%
51.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.8%
13.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.9%
34.7%
-
NYPP
8.9
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
37.0
24.7
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
14.7%
8.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
61.7%
64.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.8%
34.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
68.3
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
62.8%
59.9%
-
Succ Rate
61.1%
56.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.1%
35.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.6
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
25.2
-
Run Ratio
54.1%
37.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
29.7
-
Game Control
1.3
-1.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PIT |
16 – 26 L |
-3.1 |
50.0% / 44.1% |
6.8% / 5.9% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 6.1 |
25.0% / 36.7% |
40.0% / 20.0% |
1.5 / 4.7 |
64 / 64 |
38.3% / 36.2% |
42.2% / 40.6% |
31.6% / 35.8% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
31.3% / 46.9% |
36.3 / 30.3 |
2 |
@CHI |
13 – 17 L |
-9.1 |
43.2% / 46.9% |
9.1% / 12.5% |
2.5% / 7.1% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
50.0% / 40.6% |
22.2% / 18.8% |
4.2 / 4.2 |
62 / 64 |
50.0% / 38.3% |
45.2% / 43.8% |
32.5% / 30.9% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
29.0% / 50.0% |
29.2 / 29.1 |
3 |
SF |
9 – 36 L |
-9.1 |
38.2% / 60.5% |
5.9% / 5.3% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 8.6 |
40.0% / 42.9% |
40.0% / 34.3% |
4.4 / 2.7 |
49 / 73 |
37.8% / 50.8% |
38.8% / 52.1% |
50.2% / 30.0% |
4.7 / 5.8 |
4.1% / 0.0% |
30.6% / 47.9% |
24.8 / 35.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
3.4 |
56.3% / 52.4% |
3.1% / 7.1% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 5.8 |
57.5% / 59.3% |
12.5% / 11.1% |
3.8 / 5.0 |
72 / 69 |
57.7% / 63.0% |
56.9% / 55.1% |
40.3% / 30.8% |
5.9 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.6% / 39.1% |
29.0 / 27.1 |
2 |
@PHI |
37 – 19 W |
9.4 |
67.9% / 46.5% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.7% |
9.2 / 5.6 |
59.0% / 73.1% |
12.8% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 4.7 |
67 / 69 |
65.4% / 57.1% |
62.7% / 56.5% |
52.8% / 17.1% |
6.7 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 1.4% |
58.2% / 37.7% |
31.6 / 29.1 |
3 |
@BUF |
32 – 35 L |
-8.9 |
58.8% / 56.8% |
5.9% / 10.8% |
3.1% / 3.0% |
9.1 / 7.4 |
68.8% / 61.9% |
18.8% / 14.3% |
5.2 / 4.8 |
66 / 58 |
65.5% / 59.6% |
63.6% / 58.6% |
48.3% / 57.1% |
7.2 / 6.5 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
48.5% / 36.2% |
27.0 / 32.9 |