New York Giants @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Oct 4
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 271
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -13, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Giants (+13) over LA RAMS

New York’s offense has been dreadful under Jason Garrett so far, ranking 31st in our year-to-date numbers. The Giants are failing to gain any yardage on 32% of their rushing attempts, the highest rate in the NFL (league average is 17%), and quarterback Daniel Jones has faced a higher pressure rate than any other QB (42%). The Giants’ offense likely won’t get any better on Sunday. Aaron Donald had 5 pressures including 2 sacks last week and the All-Pro interior defender is the only player in the league with 20 pressures thus far. Jones is coming off his least accurate game as a pro (by completion percentage versus expectation) and he will need to get the ball out quickly in this matchup.

Rams top CB Jalen Ramsey has logged 20 coverage snaps on the outside in man and has yet to see a single target. However, Ramsey has not been traveling into the slot this season and the Rams allowed Bills’ slot-receiver Cole Beasley to gain 100 receiving yards last week. The Giants’ Golden Tate could have some opportunities on the inside in this game.

Giants new CB James Bradberry has 8 combined pass breakups and interceptions in 2020, three more than any other cornerback. However, New York’s secondary is likely to struggle to defend Cooper Kupp on the inside, as nickelback Darnay Holmes is surrendering 1.66 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th-worst).

Our model favors the Rams by only 10.1 points, with a predicted total of 47.4 points and I’ll lean with the Giants based on the value even though I’m uncomfortable doing so.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Rams
NYG
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.7 34.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.8% 50.5%
  • Sack Rate 7.3% 7.9%
  • Int Rate 3.5% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 10.9% 18.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.0% 22.1%
  • NYPP 5.3 6.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 17.7 32.3
  • RB YPR 1.9 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 34.1% 24.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.3% 40.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 49.5% 48.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 58.3 67.0
  • Early Down Succ 42.0% 41.8%
  • Succ Rate 42.0% 45.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.1% 32.2%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.9% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.5 31.4
  • Run Ratio 30.3% 48.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.1 31.8
  • Game Control -7.1 7.1
 
  • Points 12.7 26.3
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