New York Giants @

Kansas City Chiefs

Mon, Nov 1
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 277
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5, Total: 52

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Kansas City Team Total Over (31 -115)

Lean – KANSAS CITY (-10.5/-10) over NY Giants

Patrick Mahomes is averaging less than 7 yards per play this year for the first time in his career but our metrics using the underlying numbers have Kansas City’s passing offense 2.1 points better than average (5th). Tight end Travis Kelce is averaging 1.90 yards per route run (4th) after finishing 2020 at 2.50 yards per route run and I expect the All-Pro will be closer to last season’s yprr in this game. Giants’ safety Jabrill Peppers suffered a ruptured ACL and high ankle sprain last week and backup Julian Love won’t be able to stay with Kelce.

Kansas City Pro Bowl defensive lineman Chris Jones was back in the lineup last week and he has a favorable matchup on Monday night. New York LT Andrew Thomas hurt his ankle in week 4 and will not be available this week. Thomas ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency and is worth 0.7 points. Giants’ backup tackle Matt Peart will struggle to contain Jones along with RT Nate Solder, who has already surrendered 22 pressures. Daniel Jones has rushed for 25+ yards in four games and he will need to use his scrambling ability facing collapsing pockets this week.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 13.8 with a predicted total of 54.2 and the best play is 1-Star on Kansas City’s Team Total over 31 or less at -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion at -120).

If you don’t have team totals then the alternate play is a 1-Star Best Bet at -10 -115 odds or better only (only a lean at -10.5).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Chiefs
NYG
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.29 37.43
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 49.5%
  • Sack Rate 4.9% 5.8%
  • Int Rate 1.9% 2.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.7% 19.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 27.6% 34.8%
  • NYPP 6.61 6.75



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.14 28.43
  • RB YPR 3.08 4.30
  • Stuff Rate 26.8% 17.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.7% 49.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 33.9% 36.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.75 4.28




Game

  • All Snaps 64.43 65.86
  • Early Down Succ 47.1% 51.6%
  • Succ Rate 44.8% 48.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 30.8% 34.6%
  • Yards Per Play 5.53 5.54
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.13 28.52
  • Run Ratio 37.6% 42.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -3.05 3.05
 
  • Points 19.86 25.71
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