Game Analysis

Note: The Under (39) was released to subscribers as a 2-Star Best Bet early in the week but no longer qualifies as a play with the total having dropped to 37.5 and with the QB change for the Giants.

DALLAS (-3.5) vs NY Giants

• Mike Garafolo reported on Monday that Brian Daboll anticipated Tommy DeVito would be ready to go for this game and DeVito told others he was good to go so we made the 2-Star Under bet. However, Drew Lock will be the starter as DeVito is sitting out with soreness.
• Lock is averaging 6.1 yppp for his career compared to DeVito averaging 4.3 yppp. Lock is 3 points better than DeVito by our numbers.
• This puts our true total projection for this game at 37.5 or a 3.9% edge on Under 39. That’s not enough of an edge for a 2-Star bet anymore (it would be Strong Opinion territory under 39) but it is not worth paying the extra vig to buy off the position with over 37.5 either.
• The positive news for the bet is that Lock will be behind the same Giants offensive line coming off a game surrendering 18 pressures and five sacks with both starting tackles sidelined.
• New York will be down to 3rd and 4th string tackles Chris Hubbard and Evan Neal across from edge defender Micah Parsons, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency. Parsons returned to the lineup in week 10 and Dallas has a 41% pressure rate (5th).
• The Cowboys got back 2023 first-team All-Pro CB Daron Bland last week and they might get back 2021 first-team All-Pro CB Daron Bland on Thursday.
• The Dallas pass defense could be at full strength for the first time this season and the run defense is also rounding into form. Washington’s running backs combined for only 35 yards on 14 carries last week against the Cowboys.
• The Dallas offense will be without Dak Prescott, starting TE Jake Ferguson, and All-Pro RG Zack Martin.
• Cooper Rush will not have enough time to effectively manage the game. Cowboys C Cooper Beebe surrendered 15 pressures (10th-most) and the rookie will struggle across from interior defender Dexter Lawrence, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Dallas RT Terence Steele ranks 52nd in pass-blocking efficiency out of 57 qualifying tackles and he will likely surrender a sack to edge rusher Brian Burns, who has 39 pressures (15th).
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 3.8 points and there is no longer value on betting the under.