New York Giants @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Sep 16
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 287
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -3, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS

Saquon Barkley didn’t get a lot of help from his offensive line against a tough Jaguars front-seven in week 1 but he gained an incredible 5.3 yards after contact per attempt, the best among running backs with at least 10 carries. Despite Barkley’s effort, the Giants finished with the 25th-best run grade in our numbers. Odell Beckham had an excellent game in his return to action, averaging an impressive 2.85 yards per route run lining up across from elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and I expect him to dominate Dallas’ secondary. The Giants outgained the Jaguars in yards per play but fell short due to a pick 6 that they couldn’t overcome in a 5 point loss.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys looked terrible against the Panthers while turning in our 4th-worst overall performance of the week. Dak Prescott averaged just 3.9 yards per pass play without his favorite targets Dez Bryant (released) and Jason Witten (retired). Dallas’ normally strong ground game graded 27th last week as the loss of All-Pro center Travis Fredrick looms large. The Cowboys offense also started with the 3rd-worst field position and ended the game as one of three week 1 teams to not reach double-digit points. Dallas is better than they showed last week but our model favors the Cowboys by just 1.7 points and a 9-34-1 ATS week 2 situation applies to the home team here. I’ll lean with the Giants.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Cowboys
NYG
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.0 34.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 28.2% 44.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.1% 2.9%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 3.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.7% 24.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 21.4% 30.4%
  • NYPP 5.4 4.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.0 30.0
  • RB YPR 5.1 3.4
  • Stuff Rate 30.4% 16.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 34.8% 36.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 68.4% 48.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.0 4.6




Game

  • All Snaps 62.0 64.0
  • Early Down Succ 31.9% 46.8%
  • Succ Rate 30.6% 40.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.0% 38.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 4.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.5 27.7
  • Run Ratio 37.1% 46.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.3 31.5
  • Game Control -3.9 3.9
 
  • Points 15.0 20.0
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