New York Giants @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Jan 2
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 103
Odds: Chicago Bears -6, Total: 36.5

Game Analysis

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CHICAGO (-6) vs NY Giants

It seems like the Giants are going to roll with some combination of Jake Fromm and Mike Glennon on Sunday. Glennon is clearly the better of the two even though he is averaging only 4.5 yppp this year. Fromm is averaging just 2.9 yppp on his 35 dropbacks and his completion percentage versus expectation is -24.9%. There’s not much to gain for New York in the long run with Glennon under center, but it is likely that he gives them the best chance of winning this game. Bears edge defender Robert Quinn has 17.0 sacks (2nd) but he will be limited by LT Andrew Thomas, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency.

Andy Dalton will start for Chicago, and he is an upgrade over rookie QB Justin Fields, who is averaging only 5.3 yppp. Dalton is averaging 5.8 yppp and he could catch a break if Giants interior defender Dexter Lawrence (22nd in pass rushing efficiency) is unable to suit up.

This will likely close as the lowest total of the season with good reason. The scoring conditions in Chicago could be 3 points worse than average and the quarterback play particularly from the Giants has a very low floor.

Our model favors the Bears by 7.3 with a predicted total of 36.9.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Bears
NYG
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.80 39.07
  • Succ Pass Plays 40.2% 49.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.3% 4.9%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.0% 17.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 28.3% 29.8%
  • NYPP 5.36 6.11



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.60 28.53
  • RB YPR 3.75 4.29
  • Stuff Rate 26.3% 17.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.2% 52.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.0% 37.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.05 4.39




Game

  • All Snaps 62.40 67.60
  • Early Down Succ 44.1% 53.2%
  • Succ Rate 42.1% 50.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 31.8% 32.4%
  • Yards Per Play 4.86 5.38
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.91 28.00
  • Run Ratio 37.8% 42.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -4.05 4.05
 
  • Points 16.53 24.33
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