New York Giants @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Sep 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 277
Odds: Chicago Bears -5.5, Total: 42

Game Analysis

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CHICAGO (-5.5) vs NY Giants

The Giants offense was stifled by Pittsburgh on Monday night, managing just 4.6 yards per play and not being able to run the ball at all. Saquon Barkley ran the ball 15 times for six yards, which is the lowest yardage total for a running back with that many carries since 1998. Saquon Barkley averaged -0.67 yards before contact per attempt last week (worst of any RB in Week 1). However, Barkley has a good chance of turning it around on Sunday. The Bears really miss DT Eddie Goldman and their rush defense ranked last in week 1 by our metrics and allowed a 35-year-old Adrian Peterson to gain nearly 100 yards on the ground. Goldman finished in the top 10 in run stop percentage each of the past two seasons but opted out this year.

I thought Daniel Jones played better than most will give him credit for given that he faced pressure on more than 50% of his dropbacks. Jones averaged 6.0 yppp and had a better than average completion percentage above expectation. Jones also utilized an unexpected 58% no-huddle rate. Last year, the Giants used no-huddle on just 9.5% of plays.

However, Jones will likely be under fire again in this game with Khalil Mack torching RT Cameron Fleming, who conceded 3 hurries and a sack last week. Fleming was a poor backup tackle in Dallas last year and shouldn’t be a starter in this league. Bears rookie CB Jaylon Johnson was solid in his debut, only allowing 2 completions from 6 targets and assisted on an interception from one of his tipped passes.

Mitch Trubisky was terrible for 3 quarters until the Lions lost their top 3 cornerbacks, but he’ll get another easy matchup this week as New York’s secondary is one of the worst in the NFL.

Our model makes Chicago a 6.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.8 and I’ll pass on this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Bears


  • Pass Plays 44.0 33.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 45.5%
  • Sack Rate 8.0% 9.2%
  • Int Rate 3.7% 3.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 6.6% 20.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.1% 20.1%
  • NYPP 5.5 5.7


  • Rush Plays 19.0 31.0
  • RB YPR 2.0 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 31.1% 19.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.5% 38.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.4% 51.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 2.8 4.5


  • All Snaps 63.0 64.0
  • Early Down Succ 44.1% 37.2%
  • Succ Rate 43.7% 42.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 32.1% 33.4%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 5.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.7 30.9
  • Run Ratio 30.1% 48.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.7 29.7
  • Game Control -6.1 6.1
  • Points 14.5 21.5
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