New York Giants @ Chicago Bears Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Giants (+6) over CHICAGO

Daniel Jones has a 9.7% sack rate, which only ranks better than the two Tennessee quarterbacks, and the rookie will likely see plenty of pressure again in this matchup. Left tackle Nate Solder ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and has no chance of staying in front of Khalil Mack. Jones will need to get the ball out quickly to slot receiver Golden Tate, who has a favorable matchup lining up across from the worst player in Chicago’s secondary, nickelback Buster Skrine. Giants’ TE Evan Engram missed the last game but could return this week and the team-leader in targets could make an impact as the Bears rank below average versus opposing tight ends. Chicago’s 3rd-rated rush defense is likely to decline a bit without Danny Trevathan, whose 10.4% run stop rate ranks 7th among linebackers, but they should still be able to contain Saquon Barkley.

Mitchell Trubisky was pulled at the end of last week’s game due to a hip pointer but he should be back under center on Sunday. Our metrics indicate Trubisky has been more than 10 point per game worse this season than he was in 2018, as it seems the league has figured out the third-year quarterback. However, Trubisky may find some success in this matchup. The Bears target running backs on 28.4% of passes (4th-most) and the Giants are allowing 7.6 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th).

The Giants have had an extra week to prepare coming off a bye and bad teams have a tendency to come out of their bye week with a good effort. Perhaps having a week in which they didn’t lose a game buoys the spirits of bad teams. Regardless, teams with a win percentage of less than .400 and a spread win percentage of less than .334 are 57-24 ATS as underdogs of 4 points or more and the Giants also apply to a 92-30-2 ATS situation. Our model favors Chicago by just 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 39.3 points, and I’ll lean with the Giants in this one.

Team Stats
Game Log

Giants
Bears

NYG

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.0 33.7
Succ Pass Plays 41.9% 50.3%
Sack Rate 7.8% 7.1%
Int Rate 2.9% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 16.1% 19.2%
Big Pass Yards 41.2% 45.2%
NYPP 5.5 7.6

Rush

Rush Plays 21.4 30.3
RB YPR 3.9 3.8
Stuff Rate 22.7% 23.4%
Succ Rush Plays 46.6% 39.3%
Big Rush Yards 40.8% 42.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.0

Game

All Snaps 63.4 64.0
Early Down Succ 44.0% 46.5%
Succ Rate 43.2% 45.0%
Big Yards Rate 42.1% 47.6%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 2.2% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 29.2
Run Ratio 33.6% 47.2%
Starting Field Pos 27.0 29.6
Game Control -4.7 4.7

Points 20.3 28.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DAL	17 – 35 L	-11.2	55.1% / 71.9%	2.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 12.7	70.6% / 36.7%	11.8% / 16.7%	8.9 / 3.0	66 / 62	67.3% / 56.0%	59.1% / 54.8%	41.7% / 50.6%	7.1 / 8.0	3.0% / 0.0%	25.8% / 48.4%	21.1 / 23.6
2	BUF	14 – 28 L	-8.9	45.7% / 42.4%	2.2% / 9.1%	4.4% / 0.0%	5.2 / 7.2	70.0% / 58.8%	5.0% / 17.6%	6.5 / 4.4	66 / 67	59.6% / 55.8%	53.0% / 50.7%	38.9% / 32.7%	5.6 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	30.3% / 50.7%	28.5 / 24.8
3	@TB	32 – 31 W	-5.4	39.0% / 46.3%	12.2% / 9.8%	0.0% / 2.7%	7.6 / 8.7	31.6% / 53.1%	26.3% / 18.8%	3.8 / 4.5	60 / 73	32.6% / 54.4%	36.7% / 49.3%	60.9% / 56.5%	6.4 / 6.8	3.3% / 0.0%	31.7% / 43.8%	26.3 / 30.8
4	WAS	24 – 3 W	13.4	54.8% / 35.5%	0.0% / 9.7%	6.5% / 14.3%	7.3 / 3.9	48.6% / 23.5%	18.9% / 17.6%	4.4 / 3.2	68 / 48	49.1% / 35.1%	51.5% / 31.3%	48.8% / 41.5%	5.7 / 3.7	2.9% / 0.0%	54.4% / 35.4%	26.8 / 25.9
5	MIN	10 – 28 L	-9.2	33.3% / 60.0%	9.5% / 10.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	3.5 / 9.3	50.0% / 35.3%	20.0% / 29.4%	3.2 / 6.2	62 / 64	37.2% / 47.1%	38.7% / 46.9%	21.8% / 65.7%	3.4 / 7.7	0.0% / 1.6%	32.3% / 53.1%	26.3 / 31.0
6	@NE	14 – 35 L	-6.7	34.4% / 52.3%	3.1% / 6.8%	9.7% / 2.4%	5.0 / 7.1	31.3% / 41.2%	18.8% / 29.4%	3.3 / 3.4	48 / 78	38.9% / 50.8%	33.3% / 47.4%	34.7% / 51.5%	4.4 / 5.5	2.1% / 1.3%	33.3% / 43.6%	26.6 / 33.3
7	ARI	21 – 27 L	-6.5	41.9% / 43.5%	18.6% / 8.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.6 / 3.9	45.5% / 26.3%	22.7% / 21.1%	4.9 / 4.1	65 / 61	46.0% / 28.6%	43.1% / 32.8%	41.8% / 43.7%	4.0 / 4.0	3.1% / 0.0%	33.8% / 62.3%	24.5 / 40.1
8	@DET	26 – 31 L	-7.1	45.5% / 50.0%	6.8% / 11.1%	0.0% / 3.1%	6.6 / 8.8	41.7% / 20.0%	20.8% / 36.0%	3.3 / 2.4	68 / 61	43.4% / 33.3%	44.1% / 37.7%	32.7% / 49.9%	5.4 / 6.1	1.5% / 1.6%	35.3% / 41.0%	27.7 / 26.4
9	DAL	18 – 37 L	-1.1	37.0% / 54.3%	10.9% / 0.0%	2.4% / 2.9%	3.7 / 7.3	59.1% / 70.0%	18.2% / 16.7%	4.5 / 5.7	68 / 65	45.1% / 64.8%	44.1% / 61.5%	41.0% / 38.7%	4.0 / 6.6	2.9% / 1.5%	32.4% / 46.2%	36.3 / 30.7
10	@NYJ	27 – 34 L	-4.1	32.6% / 46.9%	13.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 6.8	17.6% / 27.6%	64.7% / 31.0%	1.4 / 2.6	63 / 61	20.9% / 39.1%	28.6% / 37.7%	58.4% / 44.9%	4.5 / 4.8	3.2% / 0.0%	27.0% / 47.5%	25.9 / 29.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	3 – 10 L	-2.9	34.0% / 40.0%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.7	40.0% / 22.7%	26.7% / 36.4%	3.1 / 2.1	65 / 57	41.7% / 39.5%	35.4% / 33.3%	38.2% / 53.1%	3.9 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	23.1% / 38.6%	22.7 / 30.9
2	@DEN	16 – 14 W	2.6	40.7% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 2.0%	4.4 / 5.4	48.3% / 50.0%	20.7% / 25.0%	5.3 / 3.8	56 / 76	47.7% / 55.2%	44.6% / 50.0%	35.5% / 19.1%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	51.8% / 31.6%	20.5 / 24.6
3	@WAS	31 – 15 W	13.9	55.9% / 57.4%	8.8% / 8.5%	3.2% / 7.0%	6.1 / 6.1	41.7% / 57.1%	20.8% / 19.0%	3.8 / 3.3	58 / 68	46.7% / 61.8%	50.0% / 57.4%	28.5% / 25.3%	5.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 2.9%	41.4% / 30.9%	36.9 / 28.7
4	MIN	16 – 6 W	10.0	55.9% / 40.5%	2.9% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 4.3	27.3% / 37.5%	21.2% / 25.0%	2.2 / 2.5	67 / 58	43.8% / 39.5%	41.8% / 39.7%	23.0% / 36.9%	4.0 / 3.8	0.0% / 3.4%	49.3% / 27.6%	32.4 / 22.3
5	@OAK	21 – 24 L	-4.6	50.0% / 53.1%	11.8% / 0.0%	6.7% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.2	41.2% / 64.1%	35.3% / 5.1%	2.5 / 4.3	51 / 71	50.0% / 61.4%	47.1% / 59.2%	27.1% / 28.1%	4.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 2.8%	33.3% / 54.9%	31.7 / 32.0
7	NO	25 – 36 L	-8.2	44.6% / 48.7%	3.6% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 7.0	28.6% / 54.3%	28.6% / 14.3%	2.4 / 4.3	63 / 74	49.0% / 54.4%	42.9% / 51.4%	11.1% / 42.9%	4.0 / 5.7	3.2% / 0.0%	11.1% / 47.3%	26.1 / 39.5
8	LAC	16 – 17 L	2.7	41.0% / 43.3%	10.3% / 3.3%	2.9% / 3.4%	5.8 / 6.5	47.4% / 16.7%	28.9% / 50.0%	4.3 / 3.0	77 / 42	45.9% / 40.6%	44.2% / 35.7%	60.1% / 35.5%	5.0 / 5.5	1.3% / 0.0%	49.4% / 28.6%	30.7 / 34.0
9	@PHI	14 – 22 L	-7.7	25.0% / 51.2%	12.5% / 9.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3 / 5.3	50.0% / 51.4%	33.3% / 14.3%	3.4 / 4.2	42 / 78	40.6% / 53.4%	35.7% / 51.3%	61.0% / 20.9%	3.9 / 4.8	2.4% / 0.0%	42.9% / 44.9%	28.9 / 26.9
10	DET	20 – 13 W	4.3	42.9% / 37.5%	17.9% / 4.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.2 / 5.4	41.7% / 48.1%	25.0% / 22.2%	3.4 / 3.6	52 / 75	48.7% / 44.4%	42.3% / 41.3%	25.2% / 28.3%	4.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 36.0%	25.8 / 30.0
11	@LA	7 – 17 L	-3.8	40.0% / 50.0%	6.0% / 0.0%	2.1% / 5.6%	3.9 / 9.6	50.0% / 44.1%	20.8% / 17.6%	3.1 / 3.2	74 / 52	47.3% / 52.5%	43.2% / 46.2%	9.0% / 54.1%	3.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.9%	32.4% / 65.4%	24.8 / 33.5

New York Giants @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Nov 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis