Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NY Giants (-4) over ARIZONA

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (38.5)

· Arizona’s game last week closed with a total of 38 and it should be significantly more than a half point higher for week 2. Joshua Dobbs had only been in the building two weeks and the QB didn’t even know everyone’s name on offense. I think it’s safe to think that Dobbs will be more comfortable with a game under his belt and another week of practice.

· Furthermore, it’s safe to say the Giants have a better offense and worse defense than the Commanders. New York’s offense ranked 14 spots higher than Washington’s in EPA/play last season while the Giants’ defense was 23 spots lower than the Commanders’ defense in EPA/play allowed.

· Additionally, this game will be played with perfect weather conditions in Arizona while last week’s Cardinals’ game in Washington was on one of the worst fields for scoring in the NFL.

· The Giants had -23.8 offensive EPA last Sunday night. For reference, Denver’s offense had -23.7 offensive EPA in the covid year game where the Broncos started a wide receiver at quarterback (via Bill Barnwell). However, I’m not going to significantly downgrade New York’s offense after one game played in wet conditions.

· The market had the Giants offense rated at league-average heading into the year and I don’t think they’re all of a sudden a bottom 10 unit. They were just outmatched in the trenches against possibly the best defensive line in the NFL but now they will face the league’s least talented defensive line in week 2.

· LT Andrew Thomas is banged up but I’m not significantly worried about communication issues up front if the All-Pro isn’t able to suit up because Jonathan Gannon’s defense had just a 7.7% blitz rate last week (29th). The Cardinals are going to try to win up front with 4 replacement-level players and I expect Brian Daboll to easily scheme Arizona’s pass rush out of the game.

· The Giants have been out-classed the last two games as we’ve seen them losing 38-7 in Philadelphia during the playoffs and 40-0 against Dallas last week. Now, New York will play one of the worst teams in the NFL and I expect them to be in control with a talent and coaching advantage.

· Our model favors the giants by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 42.5 points, and the Giants apply to a 23-0 ATS week 2 situation in addition to a 45-14-2 ATS situation that plays on teams that lost by 21 points or more to a division opponent the previous week. The matchups are also in favor of NYG.

The Giants are a 1-Star Best Bet at -4.5 or less and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 39 points or less (Strong Opinion at 39.5).