New Orleans Saints @

Washington Football Team

Sun, Oct 10
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Washington Football Team +2, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Under (44) – New Orleans (-2) vs WASHINGTON

Taylor Heinicke was not sacked last week despite holding onto the ball for more than 3 seconds on average. Washington’s offensive line leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency but will likely drop off a bit without the services of RG Brandon Scherff, who will miss at least two weeks with a sprained medial collateral ligament. Scherff is conceding only 1.5 pressures per game since the start of last season and is worth 0.7 points by our metrics.

Saints CB Marshon Lattimore has already forced 4 incompletions in three games and the Pro Bowl cornerback will limit WR Terry McLaurin, who is averaging 2.46 yards per route run (10th).

Washington’s ground game ranks 7th by our numbers but could struggle on Sunday versus a New Orleans rush defense rated 2nd.

Saints LG Andrus Peat has surrendered two sacks and will likely allow another this week across from interior defender Jonathan Allen, who ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency. Jameis Winston holds onto the ball longer than every QB in the league except Lamar Jackson. That could be troublesome with New Orleans likely without starting Center Erik McCoy (calf) and LT Terron Armstead (elbow) again.

Our model favors the Saints by 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 41.9 points. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 44 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Football Team
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 24.3 42.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.2% 46.5%
  • Sack Rate 7.0% 3.5%
  • Int Rate 3.2% 3.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 23.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 28.8% 35.1%
  • NYPP 6.5 7.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 33.3 21.3
  • RB YPR 3.2 2.7
  • Stuff Rate 18.4% 22.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.2% 32.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 21.0% 24.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.1




Game

  • All Snaps 57.5 63.8
  • Early Down Succ 50.6% 42.5%
  • Succ Rate 48.1% 41.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 26.6% 33.5%
  • Yards Per Play 4.9 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 32.6 29.2
  • Run Ratio 56.5% 32.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 3.8 -3.8
 
  • Points 23.5 17.3
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