Game Analysis
A pair of NFC South teams headed in seemingly opposite directions as the Bucs have been winners of four straight and the Saints have dropped three of the past four. Second-year signal caller Jameis Winston has shown strides as he is the #12 rated passer in the league at 6.7 NYPP. For the Saints, Breesus continues to spin it at an elite level, ranking 4th in the league in NYPP at 7.5. The advanced stats model has a lean to OVER (51), though it is below the threshold for a play. No opinion on the side.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.9
38.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
56.1%
49.1%
-
Sack Rate
3.7%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
17.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.7%
36.6%
-
NYPP
7.5
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.8
26.2
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
15.1%
22.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.1%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.0%
36.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
68.7
64.9
-
Early Down Succ
54.5%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
53.1%
46.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.4%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.7
27.1
-
Run Ratio
36.8%
40.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
30.1
-
Game Control
-0.6
0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.4
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.9%
48.5%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.8%
21.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.3%
43.5%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.7
26.9
-
RB YPR
3.3
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
23.4%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.4%
49.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
28.4%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
70.1
63.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.9%
52.8%
-
Succ Rate
45.4%
48.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
30.1%
44.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.3
27.8
-
Run Ratio
44.2%
42.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
27.8
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
34 – 35 L |
4.0 |
58.5% /
48.6% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
8.6 |
54.5% /
57.7% |
18.2% /
23.1% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
63 /
63 |
60.8% /
55.8% |
57.1% /
52.4% |
58.4% /
56.4% |
8.0 /
7.7 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
41.3% |
19.7 /
28.6 |
| 2 |
@NYG |
13 – 16 L |
-2.0 |
43.5% /
60.5% |
4.3% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.2 |
38.5% /
33.3% |
15.4% /
25.0% |
3.2 /
1.9 |
59 /
79 |
47.8% /
53.6% |
42.4% /
48.1% |
15.3% /
32.8% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
3.8% |
22.0% /
45.6% |
29.6 /
21.5 |
| 3 |
ATL |
32 – 45 L |
-7.9 |
50.0% /
59.4% |
3.6% /
6.3% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
7.0 |
56.5% /
48.5% |
4.3% /
9.1% |
5.0 /
6.6 |
79 /
65 |
51.6% /
57.1% |
51.9% /
53.8% |
49.6% /
49.8% |
6.0 /
6.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
29.1% /
50.8% |
23.8 /
32.6 |
| 4 |
@SD |
35 – 34 W |
-2.3 |
50.0% /
43.5% |
5.3% /
6.5% |
5.6% /
2.3% |
5.0 /
6.7 |
36.8% /
33.3% |
10.5% /
38.1% |
2.3 /
1.8 |
76 /
67 |
42.0% /
39.6% |
43.4% /
40.3% |
19.0% /
38.7% |
3.7 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
50.0% /
31.3% |
36.9 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
CAR |
41 – 38 W |
11.3 |
61.2% /
49.0% |
2.0% /
4.1% |
2.1% /
2.1% |
9.4 /
6.2 |
47.6% /
50.0% |
19.0% /
10.7% |
3.0 /
3.7 |
70 /
77 |
58.5% /
54.0% |
57.1% /
49.4% |
51.4% /
18.9% |
7.5 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
30.0% /
36.4% |
21.9 /
32.8 |
| 7 |
@KC |
21 – 27 L |
-7.9 |
63.3% /
54.2% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
8.9 |
72.7% /
30.0% |
9.1% /
16.7% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
71 /
54 |
66.7% /
46.3% |
66.2% /
40.7% |
25.9% /
44.8% |
6.5 /
6.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.0% /
55.6% |
22.6 /
22.7 |
| 8 |
SEA |
25 – 20 W |
-2.7 |
62.2% /
48.6% |
5.4% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.8 /
8.1 |
40.0% /
76.5% |
14.3% /
17.6% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
72 /
52 |
49.1% /
61.0% |
51.4% /
57.7% |
28.8% /
35.1% |
5.2 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
48.6% /
32.7% |
26.9 /
27.1 |
| 9 |
@SF |
41 – 23 W |
10.2 |
55.0% /
52.5% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
8.1 /
9.8 |
52.3% /
47.1% |
13.6% /
23.5% |
5.7 /
5.5 |
84 /
57 |
54.0% /
58.7% |
53.6% /
50.9% |
45.4% /
56.0% |
6.8 /
8.5 |
0.0% /
5.3% |
52.4% /
29.8% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
| 10 |
DEN |
23 – 25 L |
-3.0 |
63.3% /
45.7% |
3.3% /
13.0% |
6.9% /
5.0% |
9.8 /
5.1 |
42.9% /
30.8% |
4.8% /
20.5% |
3.8 /
2.7 |
51 /
85 |
57.1% /
35.5% |
54.9% /
38.8% |
46.9% /
3.2% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
41.2% /
45.9% |
28.9 /
37.8 |
| 11 |
@CAR |
20 – 23 L |
-8.6 |
55.3% /
37.1% |
6.4% /
5.7% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
4.9 |
42.3% /
29.6% |
19.2% /
44.4% |
4.2 /
1.9 |
73 /
62 |
55.4% /
31.1% |
50.7% /
33.9% |
29.0% /
42.6% |
5.1 /
3.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
43.5% |
23.4 /
36.8 |
| 12 |
LA |
49 – 21 W |
9.8 |
65.8% /
38.2% |
5.3% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
9.1 /
5.2 |
50.0% /
35.3% |
28.1% /
23.5% |
6.5 /
4.1 |
70 /
51 |
60.0% /
43.6% |
58.6% /
37.3% |
65.4% /
41.3% |
7.9 /
4.8 |
1.4% /
2.0% |
45.7% /
33.3% |
31.8 /
30.2 |
| 13 |
DET |
13 – 28 L |
-8.5 |
45.5% /
52.3% |
2.3% /
4.5% |
7.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.7 |
66.7% /
52.2% |
25.0% /
21.7% |
4.2 /
3.7 |
56 /
67 |
51.2% /
54.5% |
50.0% /
52.2% |
37.7% /
35.1% |
6.6 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.4% /
34.3% |
24.2 /
30.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ATL |
31 – 24 W |
4.7 |
57.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.7 |
28.1% /
30.4% |
21.9% /
30.4% |
2.9 /
2.3 |
65 /
65 |
51.0% /
50.0% |
43.1% /
43.1% |
48.3% /
43.2% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
35.4% |
23.8 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
@ARI |
7 – 40 L |
-16.6 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
5.5% /
2.8% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
8.8 |
40.9% /
34.5% |
22.7% /
20.7% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
77 /
65 |
42.6% /
43.1% |
40.3% /
43.1% |
19.5% /
55.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
44.6% |
25.7 /
28.8 |
| 3 |
LA |
32 – 37 L |
-0.7 |
50.0% /
40.7% |
3.3% /
3.7% |
1.7% /
3.8% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
65.2% /
57.6% |
17.4% /
21.2% |
3.7 /
4.2 |
83 /
60 |
55.6% /
51.1% |
54.2% /
50.0% |
30.9% /
43.4% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
1.2% /
1.7% |
27.7% /
55.0% |
28.5 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
DEN |
7 – 27 L |
-9.7 |
30.0% /
51.4% |
12.5% /
11.4% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
6.2 |
29.6% /
30.6% |
22.2% /
25.0% |
2.7 /
2.6 |
67 /
71 |
31.9% /
50.0% |
29.9% /
40.8% |
17.1% /
27.4% |
3.2 /
4.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
50.7% |
22.8 /
37.0 |
| 5 |
@CAR |
17 – 14 W |
1.6 |
53.1% /
64.3% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
6.3 /
9.9 |
36.8% /
68.0% |
28.9% /
12.0% |
3.0 /
5.4 |
70 /
53 |
47.2% /
72.7% |
44.3% /
66.0% |
31.3% /
52.9% |
4.5 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
3.8% |
54.3% /
47.2% |
31.1 /
23.9 |
| 7 |
@SF |
34 – 17 W |
2.0 |
53.1% /
34.2% |
6.3% /
10.5% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
8.3 /
3.0 |
52.4% /
64.3% |
16.7% /
21.4% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
74 /
66 |
57.9% /
48.0% |
52.7% /
47.0% |
47.3% /
38.1% |
6.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
56.8% /
42.4% |
26.4 /
30.7 |
| 8 |
OAK |
24 – 30 L |
2.4 |
35.3% /
41.0% |
5.9% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
8.2 |
55.6% /
45.8% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
61 /
85 |
47.9% /
43.1% |
44.3% /
42.4% |
20.0% /
59.7% |
4.4 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
44.3% /
28.2% |
26.5 /
24.1 |
| 9 |
ATL |
28 – 43 L |
-9.5 |
58.8% /
61.1% |
5.9% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.0 |
47.4% /
47.2% |
26.3% /
25.0% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
70 /
72 |
55.6% /
56.9% |
55.7% /
54.2% |
21.7% /
52.9% |
5.7 /
6.4 |
2.9% /
1.4% |
27.1% /
50.0% |
30.6 /
34.8 |
| 10 |
CHI |
36 – 10 W |
11.4 |
54.1% /
38.2% |
10.8% /
11.8% |
3.0% /
6.7% |
7.6 /
4.7 |
25.8% /
50.0% |
35.5% /
20.0% |
2.6 /
6.1 |
68 /
54 |
37.7% /
48.8% |
41.2% /
42.6% |
31.7% /
54.1% |
5.3 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
45.6% /
37.0% |
31.9 /
25.0 |
| 11 |
@KC |
19 – 17 W |
0.7 |
55.0% /
74.2% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
8.2 /
8.4 |
44.1% /
50.0% |
29.4% /
18.2% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
53 |
44.8% /
69.8% |
50.0% /
64.2% |
23.8% /
38.7% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.9% |
45.9% /
41.5% |
26.4 /
21.8 |
| 12 |
SEA |
14 – 5 W |
10.5 |
53.6% /
30.8% |
0.0% /
15.4% |
3.6% /
6.1% |
7.9 /
3.0 |
41.0% /
54.5% |
17.9% /
13.6% |
3.1 /
5.8 |
67 /
61 |
54.0% /
44.9% |
46.3% /
39.3% |
31.4% /
30.6% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
58.2% /
36.1% |
33.2 /
21.5 |
| 13 |
@SD |
28 – 21 W |
-2.6 |
58.1% /
46.4% |
3.2% /
7.1% |
3.3% /
7.7% |
8.6 /
7.5 |
29.4% /
64.0% |
23.5% /
12.0% |
2.5 /
4.8 |
65 /
53 |
48.9% /
55.6% |
43.1% /
54.7% |
37.8% /
38.2% |
5.4 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.3% /
47.2% |
29.8 /
26.0 |
New Orleans Saints
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers