Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over New Orleans

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (43)

· We bet the Eagles here with the idea it will be another Gardner Minshew game, but there is a possibility Jalen Hurts comes back as Philadelphia needs another win to lock up the top seed in the NFC.

· Minshew is a very capable backup, as was outlined last week and the Eagles did not punt against the Cowboys as Minshew averaged 8.9 yppp.

· The 3 turnovers last week were a fluke, as the Eagles led the league in turnover differential prior to that 6-point loss and Minshew still have an historically low interception rate (1.6% career) that would rank 3rd best of all-time (tied with Patrick Mahomes) if he had enough attempts (he has 901 career attempts).

· Philadelphia wide receiver DeVonta Smith’s four receptions of 15+ yards which were tied for the 2nd-most among players in the NFL last week and he will look to repeat on Sunday lined up across from Paulson Adebo, who is graded last out of 70 qualifying cornerbacks by PFF.

· The Eagles lost right tackle Lane Johnson in the Cowboys game. Johnson ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency and is worth about a point.

· Backup tackle Jack Driscoll’s 293 snaps were the 5th-most on Philadelphia’s offensive line last season, so he does have experience.

· Saints edge defender Marcus Davenport has a 13% pressure rate in 2022 and he is the only player on the New Orleans defensive line with a pressure rate above 9%. Davenport will line up almost exclusively across from starting left tackle Jordan Mailata rather than Driscoll.

· New Orleans had 152 yards on the ground last week which I do not expect to repeat.

· The Saints rank only 27th in EPA/rush this year but took advantage of a Browns defense allowing a 45% rush success rate (30th). New Orleans won’t have that luxury in this game.

· Eagles’ interior defender Linval Joseph had two tackles for loss on Christmas Eve and he along with Ndamukong Suh have made a massive difference for this Eagles run defense.

· Philadelphia’s defense ranks 5th in EPA/rush allowed since week 11 after they signed Joseph and Suh.

· Andy Dalton will have a problem in the middle of his offensive line. Saints starting C Cesar Ruiz out with a Lisfranc injury and starting guard Andrus Peat has a banged-up ankle.

· Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox have combined for 16.0 sacks this season, the 2nd-most for an interior tandem behind Washington’s Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.

· Dalton will try to get the ball out to Alvin Kamara, who leads all running backs with 1.81 yards per route run. However, Kamara will be limited by an Eagles defense conceding just 5.2 yards per target to opposing RBs (9th).

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 9.7-point favorite, with a predicted total of 37.8 points, and the Eagles apply to a 111-50-2 ATS situation that plays on elite teams at home off 2 or more road games. Philly is also 9-1 ATS as a home favorite under coach Sirianni and the Saints apply to a 67-139-5 ATS road underdog letdown situation.

Philadelphia is a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 42.5 or more.