New Orleans Saints @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Dec 13
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 173
Odds: Philadelphia Eagles +8, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *New Orleans Team Total Under 24.5 (-110)

Alternate play is 1-Star Philadelphia +7 or more.

Taysom Hill will make his fourth start in a third straight road game for the Saints. The New Orleans offense is averaging less than 5.5 yppl with Hill at the helm thus far albeit with a conservative gameplan against the Broncos. I expect the Saints offense to be below average as long as Hill is the starter as teams get more tape on the unconventional quarterback. Hill only threw two balls beyond 20 yards and both were incomplete last week. Hill now has 12 turnover-worthy plays at QB (PFF) and was fortunate last Sunday to have two interceptions dropped and only one of his three fumbles recovered by the Falcons. Edge defender Brandon Graham (7th in pass rushing efficiency) will be limited by All-Pro right tackle Ryan Ramczyk but Philadelphia’s defense should still bring plenty of heat with Pro Bowl DT Fletcher Cox lined up across from RG Cesar Ruiz, who ranks 50th out of 55 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency.

Carson Wentz was benched after having just 79 passing yards and taking four sacks last week. It would be difficult for Jalen Hurts to be much a downgrade from Wentz, who was averaging only 4.7 yppp this season (last among qualifying QBs). However, I think Philadelphia will likely lean on their 10th-rated ground game to support their rookie quarterback making his first start and utilize Hurts’ prowess in the read option.

Our model favors the Saints by 1.5 with a predicted total of 42.4.  1-Star Best Bet on New Orleans Team Total Under 24 points or better. The alternate play is Philadelphia at +7 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Eagles
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.3 36.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.3% 42.1%
  • Sack Rate 6.0% 8.0%
  • Int Rate 1.2% 4.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.3% 24.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 32.3% 41.6%
  • NYPP 6.6 5.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 31.8 23.0
  • RB YPR 4.6 3.1
  • Stuff Rate 17.6% 28.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 53.7% 40.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.1% 28.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 3.2




Game

  • All Snaps 66.1 59.5
  • Early Down Succ 53.6% 42.9%
  • Succ Rate 51.7% 42.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.4% 42.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 4.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.1 28.7
  • Run Ratio 48.2% 38.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 31.9 26.7
  • Game Control 4.6 -4.6
 
  • Points 28.9 20.1
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