New Orleans Saints @

New York Jets

Sun, Dec 12
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 107
Odds: New York Jets +5.5, Total: 42

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Under (42) – New Orleans (-5.5) vs NY JETS

New York’s offense has scored more than 21 points just once this year with rookie quarterback Zach Wilson under center and it is unlikely they will get there this week without WRs Corey Davis¬†(season-ending core muscle surgery) and rookie Elijah Moore¬†(quad), who is averaging 1.75 yards per route run (team-high). The Jets target RBs on 23.8% of passes (7th) but screen game going nowhere this week as Saints LB Demario Davis has not conceded a pass longer than 25 yards all year. New Orleans interior defender David Onyemata has a 11.6% pressure rate and he will line up across from RG Greg Van Roten, who ranks 53rd in pass blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifying tackles.

Taysom Hill will get the start again on Sunday and New York’s rush defense is rated better than average according to our metrics. The Saints will get Alvin Kamara back on the field and the Pro Bowl running back is averaging 1.71 yards per route run (5th). Hill will throw plenty of screens to Kamara as the Jets have allowed 753 yards to opposing running backs (31st). Those short passes should work but the lack of big plays should keep the scoring down.

Our model favors the Saints by 2.9 with a predicted total of 39.3. The under is a Strong Opinion at 42 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Jets
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.75 36.92
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.7% 45.8%
  • Sack Rate 5.2% 5.9%
  • Int Rate 2.9% 3.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.1% 20.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.9% 45.5%
  • NYPP 6.00 6.77



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.17 26.67
  • RB YPR 3.49 3.38
  • Stuff Rate 20.7% 26.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.6% 40.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.7% 41.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.07 3.62




Game

  • All Snaps 61.92 63.58
  • Early Down Succ 46.4% 45.5%
  • Succ Rate 44.0% 43.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.1% 44.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.13 5.45
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.72 29.34
  • Run Ratio 45.5% 41.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -1.80 1.80
 
  • Points 22.83 23.00
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