New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – New Orleans (+3 -120) over NEW ENGLAND

Mac Jones is one of four quarterbacks with less than 6 air yards per attempt, yet despite the conservativeness he has three turnover-worthy plays according to PFF (9th). Jones has found success on easy throws to RB James White, who is averaging 2.76 yards per route run (4th). However, White will likely be bottled up by a Saints defense that only conceded 356 receiving yards to opposing RBs all of last year (3rd-fewest) and LB Demario Davis is allowing only one reception per 14.5 cover snaps (5th). Backup right tackle Yasir Durant was pulled after surrendering two sacks last week, but it is looking like starting RT Trent Brown will be back in the lineup this week after a calf injury sidelined him in week 1.

Jameis Winston is averaging less than 5 yppp on an offense lacking weapons. Winston is playing behind backup center Cesar Ruiz, who allowed a sack last week. Starting C Erik McCoy (out with a calf strain) only conceded one sack all last season and is worth 0.4 points over Ruiz. New England’s defense already has 5 takeaways (2nd) and should add to that tally in this matchup.

Our model favors the Patriots by just 0.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.7 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Patriots

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 23.5 38.5
Succ Pass Plays 40.6% 46.3%
Sack Rate 7.7% 5.2%
Int Rate 4.5% 4.2%
Deep Pass Rate 20.8% 18.2%
Big Pass Yards 40.7% 27.5%
NYPP 5.7 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 24.0
RB YPR 2.5 2.7
Stuff Rate 26.2% 26.4%
Succ Rush Plays 44.6% 26.7%
Big Rush Yards 30.3% 15.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 2.8

Game

All Snaps 51.5 62.5
Early Down Succ 44.2% 40.0%
Succ Rate 41.1% 38.7%
Big Yards Rate 37.5% 25.5%
Yards Per Play 4.5 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 32.1 30.5
Run Ratio 52.3% 37.0%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control 1.9 -1.9

Points 22.5 14.5

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	38 – 3 W	15.3	61.9% / 35.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	0.0% / 5.7%	7.2 / 5.4	53.8% / 20.0%	23.1% / 13.3%	4.4 / 2.9	60 / 52	56.3% / 35.1%	56.7% / 30.8%	36.0% / 25.8%	5.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.9%	65.0% / 28.8%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@CAR	7 – 26 L	-11.5	19.2% / 57.5%	15.4% / 5.0%	9.1% / 2.6%	4.3 / 7.6	35.3% / 33.3%	29.4% / 39.4%	2.8 / 2.7	43 / 73	32.1% / 44.8%	25.6% / 46.6%	39.0% / 25.1%	3.7 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	39.5% / 45.2%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	MIA	16 – 17 L	-3.2	56.4% / 51.7%	0.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 3.7%	7.2 / 7.0	56.7% / 56.5%	13.3% / 30.4%	4.2 / 3.2	69 / 52	52.8% / 58.5%	56.5% / 53.8%	36.9% / 43.1%	5.9 / 5.3	2.9% / 0.0%	43.5% / 44.2%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@NYJ	25 – 6 W	10.5	36.4% / 35.1%	9.1% / 10.8%	0.0% / 12.1%	5.6 / 5.7	54.2% / 51.6%	20.8% / 29.0%	4.2 / 4.9	57 / 68	50.0% / 45.1%	43.9% / 42.6%	48.1% / 50.0%	5.0 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 45.6%	0.0 / 0.0

New Orleans Saints @

New England Patriots

Sun, Sep 26

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis