Game Analysis
MINNESOTA (-5) vs New Orleans
The Saints have the 2nd-best offense according to my ratings as they’ve found success in a more balanced approach this season with a pass rate under 60% for the first time this decade (55.9%). The Saints’ offense that is good both running and throwing the football had an advantage over most teams because their balance allowed them to exploit each opponents’ defensive deficiency. However, that is not the case when facing good defensive teams that can defend the run and the pass and the Saints have struggled against good defensive teams this season. New Orleans only faced three top-10 defenses in the regular season and the Saints didn’t score more than 20 points against any of those three teams – the Vikings, Bears, and Rams. New Orleans scored just 19 points in their week 1 loss in Minnesota and there’s reason to believe they will struggle to score against the Vikings again this time around.
Not only does Minnesota’s defense have good balance with my 9th-rated rush defense and a pass defense that has allowed just 5.2 yards per pass play, which ranks 2nd in the league, but they are extremely capable of taking away what the Saints like to do the most on offense. New Orleans targeted their running backs more than any other team but the Vikings only surrender 4.3 yards per target to opposing running backs, which is best in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense also has a shutdown cornerback in Xavier Rhodes to line up across from Michael Thomas. Rhodes held Thomas to just 45 yards on 8 targets in week 1 and he did a good job against the other elite receivers that he faced this season, as he limited Thomas, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and A. J. Green to a combined 5.8 yards per target, which is 3 yards per target below their combined season averages.
First-time playoff quarterbacks are just 16-29-2 ATS since 2000 and the Vikings would be wise to take the game out of Case Keenum’s hands as much as possible against the Saints’ 7th-ranked pass defense. My numbers have New Orleans’ rush defense rated 20th and I expect Minnesota to use the ground game heavily. The Vikings will be without excellent guard Nick Easton who didn’t allow a sack all season. Minnesota has averaged just 5.1 yards per play in four games without Easton thus far compared to 5.7 yards per play with Easton in the lineup. However, I’m not sure the Saints will be able to take advantage of Easton’s absence as their interior lineman rank 27th in total pressures as they lack depth due to the David Parry and John Hughes injuries.
I do rate the Saints as the best team in the NFC and my ratings favor Minnesota by only 3 points even with the extra home-field advantage for this round of the playoffs (close to 5 points), but the match-ups favor the Vikings in this game and will have me on the sidelines. My model also leans towards the over (48 projected points) but the match-ups favor a lower scoring game than the numbers suggest and the Saints haven’t proven that they can score more than 20 points against a top defensive team – so I’m going to pass on the total as well.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
37.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.1%
42.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.5%
19.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.9%
40.7%
-
NYPP
7.7
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.8
25.9
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
19.0%
24.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.5%
47.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.5%
46.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.5
63.6
-
Early Down Succ
53.3%
47.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.9%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.1%
44.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
26.2
-
Run Ratio
44.6%
40.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
25.6
-
Game Control
4.0
-4.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.6
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.4%
38.3%
-
Sack Rate
4.8%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.1%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.3%
32.4%
-
NYPP
6.9
5.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.0
23.5
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
23.6%
23.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.7%
39.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
22.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
67.6
60.4
-
Early Down Succ
48.8%
43.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
38.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.0%
31.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
27.3
-
Run Ratio
48.7%
38.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
27.4
-
Game Control
4.6
-4.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@MIN |
19 – 29 L |
-6.6 |
60.5% / 63.6% |
2.6% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 10.3 |
28.6% / 27.3% |
14.3% / 33.3% |
2.9 / 4.0 |
59 / 66 |
52.1% / 44.7% |
49.2% / 45.5% |
29.9% / 68.0% |
5.8 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.6% / 50.0% |
22.4 / 24.9 |
2 |
NE |
20 – 36 L |
-14.2 |
51.1% / 61.0% |
2.2% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 10.6 |
47.1% / 51.6% |
11.8% / 22.6% |
4.8 / 3.8 |
62 / 72 |
54.2% / 58.3% |
50.0% / 56.9% |
48.3% / 53.2% |
6.9 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.4% / 43.1% |
27.9 / 27.5 |
3 |
@CAR |
34 – 13 W |
8.6 |
46.7% / 43.2% |
3.3% / 10.8% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
7.1 / 4.2 |
55.6% / 77.3% |
25.9% / 4.5% |
5.5 / 6.0 |
57 / 59 |
51.1% / 57.8% |
50.9% / 55.9% |
55.5% / 40.3% |
6.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.4% / 37.3% |
37.8 / 25.2 |
4 |
@MIA |
20 – 0 W |
5.5 |
48.8% / 37.5% |
2.4% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
6.4 / 4.0 |
46.4% / 60.0% |
14.3% / 40.0% |
3.1 / 3.9 |
69 / 47 |
46.3% / 52.6% |
47.8% / 44.7% |
46.1% / 31.7% |
5.0 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 31.9% |
28.8 / 27.0 |
6 |
DET |
52 – 38 W |
15.8 |
45.2% / 35.1% |
0.0% / 8.8% |
6.5% / 5.8% |
6.0 / 4.9 |
45.9% / 15.8% |
13.5% / 36.8% |
5.2 / 3.5 |
68 / 76 |
50.9% / 24.6% |
45.6% / 30.3% |
51.7% / 53.3% |
5.6 / 4.6 |
1.5% / 2.6% |
54.4% / 25.0% |
29.4 / 27.6 |
7 |
@GB |
26 – 17 W |
-2.5 |
59.0% / 23.1% |
2.6% / 3.8% |
5.3% / 4.0% |
8.3 / 3.0 |
53.8% / 70.8% |
12.8% / 16.7% |
4.2 / 7.5 |
78 / 50 |
61.4% / 48.7% |
56.4% / 46.0% |
49.2% / 45.4% |
6.3 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 48.0% |
30.1 / 18.2 |
8 |
CHI |
20 – 12 W |
7.8 |
50.0% / 32.4% |
6.7% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
9.5 / 4.4 |
36.4% / 45.2% |
18.2% / 32.3% |
3.2 / 5.1 |
63 / 65 |
52.1% / 36.2% |
42.9% / 38.5% |
57.9% / 61.2% |
6.2 / 4.7 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
52.4% / 47.7% |
30.8 / 24.8 |
9 |
TB |
30 – 10 W |
15.2 |
67.9% / 37.5% |
3.6% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.1 / 3.5 |
41.7% / 44.0% |
8.3% / 24.0% |
4.3 / 3.5 |
64 / 57 |
57.8% / 43.2% |
53.1% / 40.4% |
49.3% / 13.0% |
6.4 / 3.5 |
3.1% / 1.8% |
56.3% / 43.9% |
26.6 / 31.5 |
10 |
@BUF |
47 – 10 W |
17.6 |
44.0% / 40.0% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
7.4 / 4.3 |
62.7% / 40.0% |
11.8% / 46.7% |
5.9 / 4.6 |
76 / 45 |
62.5% / 48.5% |
56.6% / 40.0% |
56.4% / 35.4% |
6.4 / 4.4 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
67.1% / 33.3% |
39.7 / 21.9 |
11 |
WAS |
34 – 31 W |
-5.7 |
57.1% / 47.1% |
4.8% / 5.9% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 8.8 |
60.9% / 51.5% |
17.4% / 12.1% |
7.0 / 4.7 |
65 / 67 |
62.3% / 50.9% |
58.5% / 49.3% |
54.2% / 47.8% |
8.2 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.4% / 49.3% |
24.3 / 23.4 |
12 |
@LA |
20 – 26 L |
-7.2 |
45.7% / 45.8% |
8.6% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
6.4 / 6.8 |
47.1% / 32.1% |
11.8% / 21.4% |
7.2 / 3.3 |
52 / 76 |
52.6% / 49.1% |
46.2% / 40.8% |
51.2% / 61.0% |
6.7 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.7% / 36.8% |
21.2 / 26.2 |
13 |
CAR |
31 – 21 W |
8.7 |
41.7% / 40.0% |
5.6% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.6 |
31.3% / 52.2% |
28.1% / 17.4% |
4.7 / 4.9 |
68 / 53 |
39.1% / 51.2% |
36.8% / 45.3% |
57.6% / 38.4% |
5.9 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 1.9% |
47.1% / 43.4% |
32.1 / 27.8 |
14 |
@ATL |
17 – 20 L |
1.9 |
51.4% / 50.0% |
5.4% / 3.6% |
2.9% / 11.1% |
6.9 / 7.5 |
46.7% / 56.4% |
33.3% / 23.1% |
3.3 / 3.4 |
52 / 67 |
53.7% / 56.9% |
50.0% / 53.7% |
53.6% / 40.9% |
5.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 58.2% |
26.6 / 24.0 |
15 |
NYJ |
31 – 19 W |
6.4 |
50.0% / 30.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
2.8% / 5.1% |
7.9 / 4.3 |
41.4% / 46.4% |
20.7% / 14.3% |
4.6 / 4.4 |
65 / 68 |
48.1% / 38.5% |
46.2% / 36.8% |
53.0% / 44.9% |
6.4 / 4.3 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 41.2% |
31.3 / 25.9 |
16 |
ATL |
23 – 13 W |
8.2 |
48.3% / 46.3% |
3.4% / 12.2% |
3.6% / 2.8% |
7.9 / 6.4 |
25.7% / 33.3% |
28.6% / 28.6% |
2.5 / 3.2 |
64 / 62 |
43.2% / 51.1% |
35.9% / 41.9% |
58.5% / 50.0% |
5.0 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
54.7% / 33.9% |
29.3 / 33.2 |
17 |
@TB |
24 – 31 L |
1.8 |
59.4% / 49.1% |
6.3% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
7.2 / 6.5 |
42.3% / 67.9% |
26.9% / 14.3% |
3.5 / 3.9 |
58 / 81 |
53.3% / 50.0% |
51.7% / 55.6% |
41.8% / 21.8% |
5.6 / 5.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
44.8% / 34.6% |
25.7 / 19.7 |
18 |
CAR |
31 – 26 W |
6.9 |
59.5% / 44.4% |
10.8% / 8.9% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
10.0 / 6.8 |
43.5% / 34.6% |
26.1% / 26.9% |
1.8 / 4.1 |
60 / 71 |
65.2% / 38.5% |
53.3% / 40.8% |
36.7% / 47.7% |
6.9 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 36.6% |
27.1 / 26.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% / 60.5% |
3.0% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.3 / 7.5 |
27.3% / 28.6% |
33.3% / 14.3% |
4.0 / 2.9 |
66 / 59 |
44.7% / 52.1% |
45.5% / 49.2% |
68.0% / 29.9% |
7.2 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 35.6% |
24.9 / 22.4 |
2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% / 40.5% |
5.0% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.7 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
25.0% / 20.6% |
4.6 / 3.1 |
60 / 71 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
38.3% / 40.8% |
45.1% / 34.1% |
4.0 / 4.7 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 47.9% |
23.9 / 31.8 |
3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% / 57.1% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
11.2 / 7.5 |
37.5% / 44.4% |
12.5% / 11.1% |
3.2 / 2.9 |
73 / 51 |
52.7% / 60.0% |
49.3% / 54.9% |
45.3% / 16.7% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.8% / 17.6% |
27.3 / 24.8 |
4 |
DET |
7 – 14 L |
-2.8 |
40.6% / 40.5% |
6.3% / 16.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 4.2 |
63.6% / 32.4% |
9.1% / 29.4% |
4.0 / 2.9 |
54 / 71 |
55.8% / 43.4% |
50.0% / 36.6% |
42.3% / 31.1% |
5.3 / 3.6 |
5.6% / 0.0% |
40.7% / 47.9% |
25.2 / 30.0 |
5 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
0.9 |
50.0% / 37.0% |
11.1% / 3.7% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
3.9 / 5.9 |
35.5% / 48.3% |
25.8% / 13.8% |
5.1 / 4.0 |
67 / 56 |
44.2% / 46.5% |
43.3% / 42.9% |
30.3% / 34.7% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
46.3% / 51.8% |
30.9 / 26.6 |
6 |
GB |
23 – 10 W |
5.9 |
44.7% / 39.0% |
0.0% / 9.8% |
2.6% / 8.1% |
6.3 / 3.8 |
35.3% / 20.8% |
41.2% / 29.2% |
3.3 / 3.0 |
72 / 65 |
43.9% / 33.3% |
40.3% / 32.3% |
46.0% / 11.5% |
4.9 / 3.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.2% / 36.9% |
30.2 / 30.1 |
7 |
BAL |
24 – 16 W |
5.1 |
54.8% / 36.4% |
0.0% / 11.4% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 3.3 |
39.4% / 40.0% |
27.3% / 35.0% |
5.1 / 3.2 |
64 / 64 |
46.9% / 36.2% |
46.9% / 37.5% |
26.3% / 29.8% |
5.6 / 3.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.6% / 31.3% |
33.2 / 25.4 |
8 |
@CLE |
33 – 16 W |
1.9 |
52.3% / 29.7% |
2.3% / 8.1% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 4.4 |
41.2% / 54.5% |
29.4% / 9.1% |
2.6 / 5.2 |
78 / 59 |
50.0% / 42.2% |
47.4% / 39.0% |
28.8% / 41.3% |
4.8 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
43.6% / 37.3% |
32.8 / 31.2 |
10 |
@WAS |
38 – 30 W |
6.2 |
65.5% / 45.7% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
6.9% / 2.2% |
10.5 / 6.8 |
51.5% / 46.4% |
30.3% / 21.4% |
3.2 / 2.9 |
62 / 74 |
60.9% / 49.1% |
58.1% / 45.9% |
52.2% / 43.0% |
6.6 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.2% / 37.8% |
34.6 / 34.1 |
11 |
LA |
24 – 7 W |
1.7 |
55.3% / 47.4% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 5.5 |
36.1% / 38.9% |
19.4% / 38.9% |
4.8 / 2.6 |
74 / 56 |
44.6% / 50.0% |
45.9% / 44.6% |
50.2% / 18.0% |
6.1 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
48.6% / 32.1% |
22.2 / 24.6 |
12 |
@DET |
30 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.4% / 34.2% |
6.3% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
8.5 / 6.2 |
35.6% / 46.7% |
31.1% / 20.0% |
3.1 / 3.5 |
77 / 53 |
50.9% / 41.5% |
45.5% / 37.7% |
50.4% / 47.4% |
5.3 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
58.4% / 28.3% |
32.1 / 29.2 |
13 |
@ATL |
14 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.5% / 34.5% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
44.1% / 45.5% |
17.6% / 22.7% |
3.2 / 4.6 |
66 / 51 |
59.2% / 46.2% |
53.0% / 39.2% |
16.5% / 23.3% |
4.8 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.5% / 43.1% |
25.9 / 22.4 |
14 |
@CAR |
24 – 31 L |
-5.9 |
44.0% / 29.6% |
12.0% / 7.4% |
4.5% / 4.0% |
5.1 / 4.8 |
52.4% / 41.5% |
23.8% / 19.5% |
4.8 / 5.3 |
71 / 68 |
47.3% / 43.5% |
46.5% / 36.8% |
36.2% / 47.4% |
5.0 / 5.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
29.6% / 60.3% |
31.7 / 33.2 |
15 |
CIN |
34 – 7 W |
21.4 |
33.3% / 25.8% |
7.4% / 9.7% |
4.0% / 7.1% |
8.2 / 3.7 |
43.2% / 20.0% |
24.3% / 25.0% |
3.4 / 2.3 |
64 / 51 |
44.7% / 28.6% |
39.1% / 23.5% |
61.9% / 28.0% |
5.5 / 3.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
57.8% / 39.2% |
33.2 / 24.7 |
16 |
@GB |
16 – 0 W |
9.1 |
42.9% / 31.7% |
10.7% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
4.4 / 3.1 |
32.4% / 41.7% |
10.8% / 16.7% |
3.1 / 4.7 |
65 / 65 |
45.5% / 41.3% |
36.9% / 35.4% |
44.4% / 19.2% |
3.7 / 3.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
56.9% / 36.9% |
31.8 / 28.3 |
17 |
CHI |
23 – 10 W |
9.5 |
41.9% / 23.7% |
6.5% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 4.5 |
42.1% / 33.3% |
15.8% / 53.3% |
3.9 / 2.0 |
69 / 53 |
46.2% / 33.3% |
42.0% / 26.4% |
28.6% / 51.7% |
4.8 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.1% / 28.3% |
27.3 / 19.5 |