New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Best Bet – *Under (54) – LA RAMS vs New Orleans

Lean – LA Rams (-2)

New Orleans squeaked out a victory on Monday night after Drew Brees drove the field in 37 seconds to set up the game-winning field goal. Michael Thomas had 123 receiving yards including a catch on the final drive, but the All-Pro wideout will have a much more difficult matchup this week lining up across from Aqib Talib. Aaron Donald should provide heavy pressure up the middle by taking advantage of Saints’ rookie center Erik McCoy. I expect to see a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara on the ground against a Rams rush defense ranked 30th in 2018 and ranked 30th in week 1. Furthermore, Cory Littleton is coming off a season where he surrendered 1.22 yards per cover snap, ranking 40th out of 50 qualifying linebackers, and the Rams conceded 81 receiving yards to Christian McCaffrey in the opener. I expect the Saints to throw more to the backs to exploit that weakness. The New Orleans offense will be less explosive and have a slower pace than usual with a focus on the ground game and short passes to running backs.

The Saints defense conceded 7.0 yards per play last week but it was only 5.9 yards per play before Houston’s 2-play desperate crazy final drive, which was not a normal situation. New Orleans played better than the final box score suggests. The Saints have familiarity with the Rams play disguising offensive scheme having played them twice last year and the same can be said for the Los Angeles defense against Sean Payton. New Orleans held the Rams to 5.6 yards per play and the Saints gained just 4.5 yards per play in the NFC Championship.

Early season divisional games have lower scoring by 0.4 points and this game is similar because these teams met twice last year. Also, this game will be played on grass rather than turf unlike both meetings in 2018. Our model favors the Rams by 3 with a predicted total of 48.9 points and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 53 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 52). I’ll lean with the Rams at -2.5 or less based on an 84-27-1 ATS situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Rams

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.5 33.5
Succ Pass Plays 48.5% 40.4%
Sack Rate 3.8% 13.2%
Int Rate 2.6% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 9.5% 17.4%
Big Pass Yards 26.4% 60.4%
NYPP 6.6 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 20.5 26.5
RB YPR 5.1 5.6
Stuff Rate 17.3% 25.2%
Succ Rush Plays 51.2% 55.4%
Big Rush Yards 42.6% 56.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.9 5.8

Game

All Snaps 61.0 60.0
Early Down Succ 52.1% 47.2%
Succ Rate 49.5% 46.7%
Big Yards Rate 30.9% 59.8%
Yards Per Play 6.1 6.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 30.3
Run Ratio 33.7% 44.1%
Starting Field Pos 28.1 23.4
Game Control -4.2 4.2

Points 19.5 27.5

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	30 – 28 W	-2.7	59.1% / 38.9%	2.3% / 16.7%	2.3% / 3.3%	8.2 / 6.5	52.4% / 60.9%	9.5% / 30.4%	7.0 / 7.8	65 / 59	57.7% / 44.4%	56.9% / 47.5%	45.5% / 68.4%	7.8 / 7.0	0.0% / 0.0%	32.3% / 39.0%	26.4 / 17.9
2	@LA	9 – 27 L	-5.8	37.8% / 41.9%	5.4% / 9.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.1 / 8.5	50.0% / 50.0%	25.0% / 20.0%	2.9 / 3.8	57 / 61	46.5% / 50.0%	42.1% / 45.9%	16.4% / 51.3%	4.3 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	35.1% / 49.2%	29.8 / 28.8

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	30 – 27 W	6.7	47.5% / 46.3%	2.5% / 7.3%	2.6% / 2.6%	4.6 / 5.3	59.4% / 56.5%	21.9% / 17.4%	5.2 / 5.5	72 / 64	54.7% / 51.9%	52.8% / 50.0%	43.0% / 24.2%	4.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 3.1%	44.4% / 35.9%	36.8 / 34.2
2	NO	27 – 9 W	5.8	41.9% / 37.8%	9.7% / 5.4%	0.0% / 2.9%	8.5 / 5.1	50.0% / 50.0%	20.0% / 25.0%	3.8 / 2.9	61 / 57	50.0% / 46.5%	45.9% / 42.1%	51.3% / 16.4%	6.2 / 4.3	1.6% / 0.0%	49.2% / 35.1%	28.8 / 29.8

New Orleans Saints @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Sep 15

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis