New Orleans Saints @

Las Vegas Raiders

Mon, Sep 21
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 289
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders +5.5, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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*Note: The Under was released as a 1-Star Best Bet early in the week when the line was 51 points. The Under is now out of Best Bet range.

Lean – LAS VEGAS (+5.5) over New Orleans (still a lean at +4)

The look ahead total was 50.5 before the week 1 games and it moved up to the key number of 51 (worth 4.5%) after both of these teams went over the total last week. However, it’s pretty clear to me that the total should have moved down despite both teams going over.

The Saints scored 14 points off Tom Brady interceptions and their 34 points does not accurately represent their actual performance, which was horrible. New Orleans ranked 31st in early down success rate and gained just 4.1 yards per play. Drew Brees completed only 1.8 yards through the air per dropback (lowest of all quarterbacks in Week 1) and had the 3rd-worst completion percentage above expectation. Brees is obviously better than that but he won’t have his security blanket in Michael Thomas, who led the league in yards per route run last year. Alvin Kamara gained just 1.3 yards per carry and I think the Raiders will be able to bring more guys in the box to stop him without having to help on Thomas on the outside.

The Raiders gained 6.1 yppl in Carolina but it was against the easiest defense they’ll face all season according to our ratings. The New Orleans defense is still probably underrated as I don’t think people realize this might be the best unit in the league. You could make the case both starting cornerbacks (Marcus Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins) and both starting safeties (Malcolm Jenkins and Marcus Williams) are All-Pro Bowl caliber players, while edge rusher Cam Jordan and LB Demario Davis are in the top 3 at their respective positions. New Orleans has one of the league’s most aggressive defensive schemes and won’t allow those typical Derek Carr dump-offs like some more conservative defenses do.

Carr’s average target depth of 17.4 yards during the first 15 plays of Week 1 was the second-highest mark among all QBs but it dropped to 3.9 yards after the first 15 plays (last), which is more in line with last year’s conservative scheme. The Saints finished with the third-best rush defense in week 1 and should limit Josh Jacobs, especially if Pro Bowl RT Trent Brown (pec injury) is unable to suit up.

Our model makes New Orleans a 3.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.0 points. The Raiders apply to a 70-23-3 Monday night situation and I’ll lean with Las Vegas plus the points. However, the better play is the Under, which is a 1-Star Best Bet at 51 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 50 points).

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  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Raiders
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.0 39.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 40.6% 46.2%
  • Sack Rate 3.1% 7.7%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 5.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.7% 21.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 44.4% 39.7%
  • NYPP 5.9 5.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 34.0 26.0
  • RB YPR 2.3 3.3
  • Stuff Rate 32.4% 23.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.1% 50.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 15.9% 37.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 2.4 3.3




Game

  • All Snaps 66.0 65.0
  • Early Down Succ 46.9% 49.0%
  • Succ Rate 42.4% 47.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.8% 39.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.1 4.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 26.3
  • Run Ratio 51.5% 40.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 41.8 18.1
  • Game Control 6.1 -6.1
 
  • Points 34.0 23.0
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