Game Analysis

Note: This play was released when the line was -5 early in the week but KC is still a Best Bet at -5.5 or -6.

2-Star Best Bet – **KANSAS CITY (-5) over New Orleans

• Patrick Mahomes had a 51.6% success rate last week after WR Rashee Rice went down in the first quarter and I expect TE Travis Kelce to take Rice’s underneath routes while the second-year wide receiver is sidelined.
• Kansas City’s offense was in 12 or 13 personnel on 34% of snaps against the Chargers and we will see more of TE Noah Gray, who is averaging 1.76 yards per route run. The Saints’ defense is surrendering 58% more yards per pass play when the opposing offense only has two wide receivers on the field compared to other personnel packages and starting linebacker Demario Davis is likely out because of a hamstring injury.
• New Orleans’s defense has a 49.4% single-high coverage rate (8th-highest) and they will struggle as the Chiefs are averaging 25% more yards per pass play versus single-high than two-high safety shells (4th).
• Kansas City RT Jawaan Taylor is allowing just a 4.3% pressure rate, and he will contain edge defender Carl Granderson, who ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• New Orleans’ offense depends on the ground game, and the Saints have a 45.9% rush success rate (5th), but the Chiefs have the best run defense in the NFL by our metrics. Kansas City’s defense allowed just 49 yards on 24 carries versus the Chargers last week.
• New Orleans will not be able to run the ball to protect the depleted offensive line. Saints’ backup C Shane Lemieux and backup RG Landon Young surrendered a combined 7 pressures last week. Chiefs’ All-Pro interior defender Chris Jones ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency and he has a favorable matchup across from the backups.
• Kansas City CB Trent McDuffie is allowing only 0.63 yards per cover snap (16th) and he will limit WR Chris Olave, who is averaging 2.07 yards per route run (17th).
• New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought over much of his scheme from Kyle Shanahan after being on the San Francisco staff last season. In many ways, the Saints are just a less talented version of the 49ers’ offense. Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a proven game plan versus the scheme. San Francisco’s offense had a league-high 51.1% success rate through the Conference Championship last season, but the 49ers had just a 44.6% success rate against Kansas City’s defense in the Super Bowl.
• The Chiefs haven’t looked as good on the scoreboard as they normally do, as they’ve won their 4 games by an average margin of just 5 points, but an uncharacteristic -4 in turnovers is partially to blame for that. Kansas City applies to a 78-38-4 ATS contrary situation that plays on home favorites of more than 3 points in a game with a significant negative combined turnover margin (the Saints are +3 in turnover).
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 9.2 points, with a predicted total of 41.9 points, and KC applies to a 60-21-1 ATS Monday night home team situation in addition to that contrary turnover situation.

Kansas City is a 2-Star Best Bet at- 5.5 or less and 1-Star at -6 (Strong Opinion at -6.5).