Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (41.5) – New Orleans at HOUSTON

Lean – New Orleans (-1.5)

· This New Orleans defense is overrated after the schedule they saw during the opening five weeks. Tennessee, at 5.1 yppl (19th), is the best offense the Saints have gone against in 2023.

· Houston’s offense is finally healthy outside of WR Tank Dell in concussion protocol and the current offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Texans got starters Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard on the field together for the first game all season last week and they led the league in pass blocking efficiency. Tunsil and Howard allowed them to bench backup lineman Josh Jones, who was averaging 1.0 holdings per game (2nd-most).

· CJ Stroud will be protected on Sunday and has a favorable matchup as the rookie is averaging 37% more yards per attempt versus man coverage than against zone (2nd-largest gap) and the New Orleans defense has a 37.2% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest).

· Stroud is the most impressive rookie this season, showing he can make it happen even when his team needs him to step up. Stroud is averaging 0.14 EPA/play in likely passing situations (6th).

· Derek Carr’s AC strain has limited the explosiveness of the Saints’ offense recently. Carr averaged just 0.4 completed air yards in week 4 and it went up to 4.9 completed air yards against the Patriots. Carr had 17 passes with at least 20 air yards in the first three games (2nd-most) and AC sprains typically heal in the third week. I expect Carr to go back to throwing deep on Sunday, which will open things up underneath.

· New Orleans won’t forget about the screen game. Houston’s defense is surrendering 0.26 EPA/target to running backs (29th) and RB Alvin Kamara is averaging 1.25 yards per route run (6th).

· Our model favors the Saints by 2.4 points, with a predicted total of 45.5 points.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 42.5 points or less and we’ll lean with the Saints based on a 46-117-5 ATS situation that applies to Houston.