Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – New Orleans (-1) over GREEN BAY 

· Matt LaFleur has been great to start the season and is beginning to justify the offense he wanted to run before getting pushback from Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love leads all quarterbacks averaging 0.48 EPA/play despite a league-low -8.6% completion percentage versus expectation.

· Packers’ rookie tight end Luke Musgrave is averaging 0.49 EPA/target (4th) but he will be shut down on Sunday as the Saints allowed 4.7 yards per target to tight ends last season (1st). Green Bay’s passing game will need wide receiver Christian Watson to make his season debut.

· Derek Carr has a 9.8-yard average depth of target, but he’s seen the lowest percentage of pre-snap two-high safety shells of any quarterback in the NFL. That will change this week. Packers’ defensive coordinator Joe Barry has called a league-high 95% zone rate this season and he will present plenty of two-deep safety looks to Carr forcing him to work underneath.

· Saints WR Chris Olave is one of 11 wide receivers averaging more than 2 yards per route run in the slot and he can do damage on quick routes versus nickelback Keisean Nixon, who is surrendering 1.35 yards per slot cover snap (4th-most). Olave will have a tougher matchup on the boundary across from Green Bay CB Jaire Alexander, who ranked 4th in PFF coverage grade last season.

· The New Orleans interior offensive line has surrendered 4 sacks already this season and I doubt they can stop the bleeding this week. Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt have combined for 19 pressures which is the most of any interior defender tandem in the NFL.

· Packers edge defender Rashan Gary has 8 pressures on only 24 pass-rushing snaps. Gary should get an increased workload in this game, and he will battle against Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.

Packers inactives include WR Christian Watson, CB Jaire Alexander, RB Aaron Jones, LT David Bakhtiari, and G Elgton Jenkins and those 5 players are worth 8.5% towards their win probability.

· Our model makes this game a pick with a predicted total of 43.6. New Orleans applies to a 102-49-3 ATS situation and a 32-5 ATS week 3 situation.

The Saints are a Strong Opinion at -1.5 or better.