Game Analysis
New Orleans (-15.5) at DENVER
The big news here is that all of Denver’s quarterbacks are out due to Covid or Covid tracing protocols. Receiver Kendall Hinton, who was a quarterback at Wake Forest early in his college career, will be running the offense for the Broncos. Hinton is a good runner but he completed just 53% of his passes (133 for 251) for 6.0 yards per attempt before being moved to receiver. It’s hard to put a number on how bad he’ll be but I adjusted as the market did and come up with Saints by 16.1 points with a total of 37.8 points.
Taysom Hill averaged 8.1 yards per pass play in his first start last week, but his 44-yard completion to Emmanuel Sanders was severely underthrown and I expect Vic Fangio’s defense to play close to the line of scrimmage like they did against Tua Tagovailoa, who also doesn’t pose much of a deep pass threat. Michael Thomas caught half of Hill’s 18 completions for 106 yards last week, but I don’t think the All-Pro wide receiver will be much of a factor on Sunday. Broncos’ CB Bryce Callahan is conceding only 0.55 yards per cover snap (3rd) and he should neutralize Thomas. Edge defender Bradley Chubb accounted for 30% of Denver’s pressures versus Miami but he will be limited by LT Terron Armstead, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency, so Hill should have time in the pocket.
As mentioned, my best guess on a fair line is Saints by 16.1 points with a total of 37.8 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.3
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.9%
46.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
7.9%
-
Int Rate
0.9%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
11.7%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.8%
43.8%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.2
22.2
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
16.8%
27.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.9%
42.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.5%
24.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
65.5
60.8
-
Early Down Succ
55.0%
45.2%
-
Succ Rate
52.7%
44.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.1%
40.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.0
-
Run Ratio
46.1%
35.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.0
26.6
-
Game Control
3.7
-3.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.6
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.2%
47.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.0%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
4.9%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.8%
17.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.0%
39.2%
-
NYPP
5.7
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.0
29.2
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
23.7%
19.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.1%
45.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
46.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
65.6
67.4
-
Early Down Succ
43.2%
49.7%
-
Succ Rate
41.3%
46.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.7%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.2
28.3
-
Run Ratio
38.1%
43.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.6
33.5
-
Game Control
-5.4
5.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TB |
34 – 23 W |
6.1 |
40.6% /
46.2% |
3.1% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
44.1% /
50.0% |
32.4% /
23.1% |
2.4 /
3.3 |
66 /
65 |
46.9% /
49.0% |
42.4% /
47.7% |
35.8% /
39.0% |
4.1 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
51.5% /
40.0% |
41.8 /
18.1 |
| 2 |
@LV |
24 – 34 L |
-0.3 |
55.3% /
58.5% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.3 |
73.7% /
40.0% |
10.5% /
40.0% |
5.9 /
3.3 |
57 /
76 |
60.9% /
45.6% |
61.4% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
35.2% |
7.4 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
33.3% /
46.1% |
26.6 /
26.9 |
| 3 |
GB |
30 – 37 L |
-1.6 |
50.0% /
54.5% |
5.3% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
8.2 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
15.0% /
26.9% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
58 /
59 |
51.1% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
52.5% |
33.2% /
50.9% |
6.8 /
6.3 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
44.1% |
28.9 /
33.9 |
| 4 |
@DET |
35 – 29 W |
4.8 |
59.3% /
38.2% |
7.4% /
8.8% |
4.0% /
3.2% |
8.4 /
5.6 |
61.9% /
59.1% |
14.3% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
69 /
56 |
59.6% /
41.0% |
60.9% /
46.4% |
27.3% /
36.7% |
5.7 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.9% /
39.3% |
25.7 /
31.8 |
| 5 |
LAC |
30 – 27 W |
-6.3 |
50.0% /
40.5% |
4.0% /
8.1% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
52.0% /
31.3% |
16.0% /
31.3% |
3.8 /
3.5 |
75 /
69 |
55.0% /
34.0% |
50.7% /
36.2% |
21.8% /
54.6% |
5.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
46.4% |
29.3 /
25.1 |
| 7 |
CAR |
27 – 24 W |
3.3 |
60.5% /
69.0% |
2.6% /
3.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
8.5 |
62.1% /
42.9% |
17.2% /
21.4% |
4.8 /
2.6 |
67 /
43 |
56.9% /
58.8% |
61.2% /
60.5% |
33.7% /
43.1% |
6.2 /
6.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
32.6% |
26.7 /
25.7 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
26 – 23 W |
0.8 |
42.9% /
43.5% |
2.4% /
10.9% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.5 /
5.1 |
40.0% /
47.8% |
20.0% /
30.4% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
72 /
69 |
47.3% /
47.1% |
41.7% /
44.9% |
36.0% /
42.6% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.7% /
33.3% |
35.5 /
26.8 |
| 9 |
@TB |
38 – 3 W |
23.8 |
63.9% /
34.1% |
2.8% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
7.9% |
7.8 /
4.5 |
40.5% /
20.0% |
18.9% /
40.0% |
3.7 /
1.6 |
73 /
46 |
51.9% /
42.4% |
52.1% /
32.6% |
47.6% /
32.0% |
5.8 /
4.2 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
10.9% |
36.9 /
27.0 |
| 10 |
SF |
27 – 13 W |
3.0 |
42.3% /
46.3% |
11.5% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
56.7% /
36.0% |
6.7% /
36.0% |
3.8 /
2.0 |
56 /
66 |
61.0% /
42.9% |
50.0% /
42.4% |
30.8% /
34.5% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
3.6% /
3.0% |
53.6% /
37.9% |
38.6 /
27.2 |
| 11 |
ATL |
24 – 9 W |
3.8 |
53.8% /
28.9% |
11.5% /
17.8% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
8.1 /
4.4 |
58.3% /
42.9% |
16.7% /
7.1% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
62 /
59 |
60.0% /
35.7% |
56.5% /
32.2% |
44.4% /
37.5% |
6.1 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
58.1% /
23.7% |
30.4 /
23.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TEN |
14 – 16 L |
0.4 |
48.5% /
59.1% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
5.6 |
57.7% /
52.9% |
30.8% /
20.6% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
59 /
78 |
57.1% /
59.0% |
52.5% /
56.4% |
38.4% /
29.2% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
44.1% /
43.6% |
26.9 /
21.4 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
21 – 26 L |
-7.1 |
34.8% /
45.2% |
15.2% /
2.4% |
2.6% /
2.4% |
4.7 /
7.2 |
42.3% /
40.9% |
23.1% /
27.3% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
72 /
64 |
40.0% /
51.0% |
37.5% /
43.8% |
57.4% /
49.5% |
4.4 /
6.4 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
36.1% /
34.4% |
29.9 /
35.1 |
| 3 |
TB |
10 – 28 L |
-12.6 |
35.6% /
45.0% |
13.3% /
5.0% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
7.1 |
35.7% /
52.0% |
28.6% /
24.0% |
3.0 /
2.7 |
59 /
65 |
36.4% /
48.9% |
35.6% /
47.7% |
34.1% /
42.2% |
3.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.7% /
38.5% |
21.5 /
36.9 |
| 4 |
@NYJ |
37 – 28 W |
1.6 |
45.2% /
34.0% |
0.0% /
12.0% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
3.8 |
28.1% /
54.2% |
25.0% /
20.8% |
3.7 /
5.4 |
63 /
74 |
36.2% /
41.5% |
36.5% /
40.5% |
60.4% /
44.2% |
5.7 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
32.4% |
33.1 /
30.3 |
| 6 |
@NE |
18 – 12 W |
8.4 |
34.6% /
45.2% |
7.7% /
12.9% |
8.3% /
7.4% |
6.3 /
5.5 |
48.6% /
44.0% |
21.6% /
16.0% |
3.6 /
4.7 |
63 /
56 |
48.9% /
47.5% |
42.9% /
44.6% |
49.5% /
29.2% |
4.7 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
58.7% /
44.6% |
31.7 /
28.5 |
| 7 |
KC |
16 – 43 L |
-13.9 |
37.2% /
51.7% |
7.0% /
13.8% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
6.4 |
66.7% /
36.4% |
15.2% /
18.2% |
5.4 /
4.6 |
76 /
51 |
55.0% /
56.1% |
50.0% /
45.1% |
38.0% /
50.0% |
5.4 /
5.6 |
2.6% /
2.0% |
43.4% /
43.1% |
25.1 /
43.1 |
| 9 |
@ATL |
27 – 34 L |
-12.5 |
38.8% /
54.1% |
2.0% /
5.4% |
2.1% /
2.9% |
6.2 /
7.3 |
27.3% /
34.4% |
22.7% /
25.0% |
4.7 /
2.9 |
71 /
69 |
34.0% /
46.3% |
35.2% /
44.9% |
47.9% /
50.7% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.0% /
46.4% |
23.7 /
36.1 |
| 10 |
@LV |
12 – 37 L |
-8.4 |
40.8% /
48.0% |
4.1% /
0.0% |
8.5% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.2 |
52.6% /
41.5% |
21.1% /
9.8% |
3.5 /
5.0 |
68 /
66 |
42.3% /
45.1% |
44.1% /
43.9% |
29.1% /
42.6% |
4.6 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
27.9% /
62.1% |
18.8 /
40.8 |
| 8 |
LAC |
31 – 30 W |
-4.7 |
37.2% /
45.7% |
4.7% /
4.3% |
2.4% /
4.5% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
37.5% /
55.3% |
25.0% /
13.2% |
6.8 /
5.5 |
59 /
84 |
38.6% /
52.2% |
37.3% /
50.0% |
47.9% /
47.2% |
5.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.1% /
45.2% |
29.0 /
29.0 |
New Orleans Saints
@ 
Denver Broncos