Game Analysis

DALLAS (-6) vs New Orleans

• New Orleans’ biggest concern coming into the year was the offensive line after RT Ryan Ramczyk retired. The Saints led the NFL in pass blocking efficiency last week but it might’ve been more of a product of Carolina’s inept defensive line.
• The other possibility is New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has schemed around his poor offensive line. The Saints used play action on 40% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks in week 1 (3rd-highest) and well above Carr’s 15% play action rate last year under offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael.
• We’ll see on Sunday if Kubiak can scheme around potentially the best pass rush in football. The Cowboys defense had 17 quarterback hits in Mike Zimmer’s first game in charge which was more than any team had in a game last season.
• Dak Prescott signed a $240 million deal just before the Dallas week 1 win in Cleveland. Prescott has averaged 0.18 EPA/play in the last five seasons (6th) and the Dallas passing attack might have a favorable matchup this week.
• Saints’ top CB Marshon Lattimore looks like he’s out for Sunday. Lattimore has missed 17 games the last two seasons and his backups are allowing 1.05 yards per cover snap compared to Lattimore’s 0.79 yards allowed per cover snap. Lattimore’s backup this year is rookie cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.
• New Orleans nickelback Alontae Taylor surrendered 1.54 yards per cover snap in the slot last season, ranking 28th out of 29 qualifiers at the position, and he will struggle lined up across from WR CeeDee Lamb, who averaged 0.56 EPA/target in 2023 (4th).
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson is likely out with an MCL sprain. Ferguson averaged 0.25 EPA/target last season (7th) and is worth a half point to the Dallas offense according to our metrics.
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 6.1 points with a predicted total of 45.9.