Game Analysis
Lean – DALLAS (+7/+7.5) over New Orleans
Thursday night games have been pretty sloppy this season but I’m hoping for better quality football with both teams on a full week’s rest after playing on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys’ new receiver Amari Cooper had a breakout game against the Redskins with 180 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Cooper is gaining 2.27 yards per route run and has added 25.7 expected points with Dallas, both ranking 7th among wide receivers since week 9. Cooper has a solid chance to build on his excellent performance this week while lining up across from Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore is experiencing a sophomore slump while surrendering 1.32 yards per cover snap (59th) after making the Pro Bowl his rookie season. Still, Dak Prescott may not have time to find Cooper downfield as the Cowboys top 2 offensive linemen are banged-up. Left tackle Tyron Smith hasn’t practiced all week and right guard Zack Martin is nursing a knee injury and could potentially be exposed by Sheldon Rankins, who ranks 10th in pass rush efficiency among interior defensive linemen. New Orleans’ 6th-rated rush defense has a sound chance to limit Ezekiel Elliott in the ground game as well.
Saints’ right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency, should nullify DeMarcus Lawrence, whose 45 pressures this season ranks 9th among edge defenders, and left tackle Jermon Bushrod has only conceded 2 pressures the last two games filling in for Terron Armstead. Drew Brees should have time to look downfield, but his favorite receiver Michael Thomas, gaining 2.97 yards per route run (2nd), will likely be blanketed by Byron Jones, who has surrendered just 0.62 yards per cover snap (3rd) in his first season at cornerback after primarily playing safety his first three seasons. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ 4th-rated rush defense should limit Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram on the ground. However, I expect the Saints running back tandem to find success catching passes out of the backfield with the key cog in the Dallas defense, Sean Lee (out), targeting next week’s game versus Philadelphia to make his return.
Our model favors the Saints by 6.7-points with a predicted total of 52.5 so there is no line value to be had. However, New Orleans applies to a 20-51-2 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off straight up and spread wins in each of the last 3 weeks when visiting a team with a winning record.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
58.8%
52.2%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
8.6%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.5%
39.2%
-
NYPP
7.9
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.9
22.1
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
16.0%
25.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.7%
43.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.3%
36.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
59.5
-
Early Down Succ
58.1%
50.3%
-
Succ Rate
53.9%
48.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
39.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
28.7
-
Run Ratio
48.6%
36.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.1
26.7
-
Game Control
4.9
-4.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.1
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.6%
50.1%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.1%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.2%
34.4%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.4
24.9
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
21.3%
27.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.1%
43.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.7%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
64.5
59.4
-
Early Down Succ
48.4%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
46.2%
46.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.8%
36.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
29.1
-
Run Ratio
45.7%
41.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
29.9
-
Game Control
2.3
-2.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TB |
40 – 48 L |
-7.4 |
73.9% /
64.3% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
14.9 |
69.2% /
43.2% |
23.1% /
18.9% |
3.3 /
3.1 |
59 /
65 |
77.6% /
56.5% |
72.9% /
52.3% |
36.4% /
62.7% |
8.1 /
8.2 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
22.0% /
56.9% |
25.9 /
26.4 |
| 2 |
CLE |
21 – 18 W |
-2.8 |
63.2% /
48.5% |
7.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
37.5% /
33.3% |
25.0% /
14.8% |
2.6 /
3.4 |
62 /
60 |
60.4% /
43.5% |
53.2% /
41.7% |
30.8% /
43.4% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
45.0% |
35.0 /
28.4 |
| 3 |
@ATL |
43 – 37 W |
0.3 |
56.0% /
63.2% |
2.0% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
9.4 |
53.6% /
21.7% |
14.3% /
43.5% |
5.1 /
2.1 |
78 /
61 |
57.4% /
52.1% |
55.1% /
47.5% |
37.9% /
36.3% |
6.9 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
37.7% |
29.8 /
24.1 |
| 4 |
@NYG |
33 – 18 W |
3.5 |
42.9% /
56.8% |
2.9% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
8.6% /
18.8% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
70 /
60 |
51.0% /
58.3% |
45.7% /
55.0% |
55.4% /
29.3% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
50.0% /
26.7% |
33.9 /
22.5 |
| 5 |
WAS |
43 – 19 W |
15.4 |
71.4% /
69.2% |
7.1% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
12.5 /
9.4 |
36.1% /
50.0% |
5.6% /
27.8% |
2.8 /
2.2 |
64 /
44 |
54.9% /
48.8% |
51.6% /
61.4% |
54.3% /
51.2% |
7.0 /
6.4 |
1.6% /
2.3% |
56.3% /
40.9% |
36.2 /
33.4 |
| 7 |
@BAL |
24 – 23 W |
-1.7 |
45.2% /
46.3% |
3.2% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
12.5% /
30.4% |
3.4 /
3.3 |
71 /
64 |
48.0% /
50.0% |
47.9% /
48.4% |
31.2% /
19.7% |
4.8 /
5.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
56.3% /
35.9% |
27.6 /
21.8 |
| 8 |
@MIN |
30 – 20 W |
5.9 |
62.5% /
56.8% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
4.2% /
2.5% |
6.8 /
7.7 |
48.3% /
40.9% |
13.8% /
31.8% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
53 /
66 |
56.8% /
50.9% |
54.7% /
51.5% |
34.1% /
40.2% |
5.1 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
54.7% /
33.3% |
38.3 /
21.6 |
| 9 |
LA |
45 – 35 W |
6.9 |
58.3% /
55.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
9.6 /
9.8 |
44.4% /
36.8% |
11.1% /
21.1% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
72 /
59 |
51.9% /
53.1% |
51.4% /
49.2% |
36.6% /
48.0% |
6.8 /
8.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
32.2% |
31.4 /
30.0 |
| 10 |
@CIN |
51 – 14 W |
21.4 |
70.4% /
46.2% |
0.0% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
9.8 /
6.7 |
64.0% /
62.5% |
10.0% /
6.3% |
4.9 /
6.9 |
77 /
42 |
72.9% /
61.8% |
66.2% /
52.4% |
45.3% /
61.3% |
6.6 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.9% /
38.1% |
38.8 /
25.9 |
| 11 |
PHI |
48 – 7 W |
20.4 |
68.8% /
36.1% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
11.7 /
3.8 |
44.7% /
58.3% |
26.3% /
25.0% |
4.6 /
4.8 |
70 /
48 |
57.1% /
47.2% |
55.7% /
41.7% |
56.5% /
14.3% |
7.8 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.3% /
25.0% |
27.2 /
25.1 |
| 12 |
ATL |
31 – 17 W |
11.9 |
62.5% /
49.1% |
8.3% /
11.3% |
4.5% /
2.1% |
6.8 /
6.4 |
51.4% /
37.5% |
8.6% /
43.8% |
4.4 /
1.6 |
59 /
69 |
68.3% /
45.8% |
55.9% /
46.4% |
32.9% /
42.3% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
59.3% /
23.2% |
33.5 /
29.6 |
| 13 |
@DAL |
10 – 13 L |
-6.7 |
30.0% /
48.6% |
6.7% /
20.0% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
5.9 |
57.9% /
37.1% |
21.1% /
20.0% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
49 /
70 |
45.9% /
46.0% |
40.8% /
42.9% |
24.4% /
28.0% |
3.6 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
38.8% /
50.0% |
25.4 /
28.6 |
| 14 |
@TB |
28 – 14 W |
-3.3 |
59.4% /
38.1% |
3.1% /
9.5% |
3.2% /
2.6% |
6.2 /
4.1 |
40.6% /
43.5% |
28.1% /
26.1% |
3.2 /
4.6 |
64 /
65 |
53.2% /
39.2% |
50.0% /
40.0% |
30.7% /
36.2% |
4.7 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.4% |
34.8 /
29.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CAR |
8 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
37.1% /
50.0% |
17.1% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
5.2 |
26.1% /
44.7% |
17.4% /
21.1% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
58 /
66 |
38.6% /
58.7% |
32.8% /
47.0% |
22.7% /
28.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
39.7% /
57.6% |
21.4 /
38.1 |
| 2 |
NYG |
20 – 13 W |
10.5 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
0.0% /
12.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
4.4 |
59.3% /
47.1% |
14.8% /
35.3% |
5.2 /
2.1 |
52 /
67 |
56.8% /
33.3% |
48.1% /
38.8% |
48.3% /
18.4% |
5.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
51.9% /
25.4% |
27.6 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
@SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-8.3 |
28.2% /
42.9% |
12.8% /
7.1% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
6.5 |
52.6% /
30.0% |
15.8% /
30.0% |
8.7 /
2.9 |
58 /
68 |
39.5% /
34.0% |
36.2% /
35.3% |
51.2% /
34.8% |
5.2 /
4.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
58.8% |
25.9 /
27.2 |
| 4 |
DET |
26 – 24 W |
1.7 |
50.0% /
54.5% |
10.0% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
8.7 |
55.6% /
40.0% |
22.2% /
25.0% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
66 /
53 |
56.9% /
47.6% |
53.0% /
49.1% |
51.6% /
64.1% |
6.3 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
37.7% |
21.8 /
23.8 |
| 5 |
@HOU |
16 – 19 L |
0.3 |
65.0% /
79.4% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
11.1% /
3.0% |
9.7 /
11.0 |
36.7% /
32.3% |
30.0% /
32.3% |
3.3 /
2.8 |
50 /
65 |
43.2% /
53.3% |
48.0% /
56.9% |
52.9% /
30.1% |
5.9 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
60.0% /
47.7% |
30.8 /
27.9 |
| 6 |
JAC |
40 – 7 W |
18.5 |
36.7% /
48.3% |
10.0% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
5.7 /
4.8 |
45.2% /
38.9% |
23.8% /
16.7% |
4.9 /
3.6 |
72 /
47 |
39.6% /
48.6% |
41.7% /
44.7% |
45.0% /
32.4% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
2.1% |
58.3% /
38.3% |
37.8 /
26.4 |
| 7 |
@WAS |
17 – 20 L |
-4.7 |
41.0% /
42.3% |
10.3% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
6.7 |
54.5% /
40.6% |
27.3% /
40.6% |
3.3 /
4.1 |
61 /
58 |
48.9% /
46.7% |
45.9% /
41.4% |
45.8% /
46.6% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
55.2% |
21.4 /
33.4 |
| 9 |
TEN |
14 – 28 L |
-2.1 |
45.9% /
51.5% |
13.5% /
12.1% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
57.9% /
47.5% |
26.3% /
15.0% |
3.8 /
3.2 |
56 /
73 |
52.3% /
47.2% |
50.0% /
49.3% |
43.1% /
43.6% |
5.3 /
4.7 |
1.8% /
2.7% |
33.9% /
54.8% |
33.8 /
28.6 |
| 10 |
@PHI |
27 – 20 W |
4.0 |
50.0% /
55.6% |
10.0% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
6.0 /
7.8 |
46.4% /
56.3% |
21.4% /
31.3% |
6.1 /
4.4 |
68 /
61 |
47.1% /
61.2% |
48.5% /
55.7% |
50.2% /
32.1% |
6.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.2% /
26.2% |
25.6 /
32.3 |
| 11 |
@ATL |
22 – 19 W |
1.1 |
50.0% /
56.8% |
5.9% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
62.1% /
61.1% |
13.8% /
27.8% |
4.6 /
4.4 |
63 /
55 |
58.0% /
60.5% |
55.6% /
58.2% |
28.8% /
39.0% |
5.1 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
32.7% |
26.8 /
29.1 |
| 12 |
WAS |
31 – 23 W |
6.3 |
45.7% /
51.2% |
11.4% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
7.9% |
7.4 /
6.1 |
41.7% /
42.9% |
16.7% /
14.3% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
71 /
62 |
48.1% /
53.1% |
43.7% /
48.4% |
50.5% /
34.9% |
5.7 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
33.9% |
26.9 /
32.1 |
| 13 |
NO |
13 – 10 W |
6.7 |
48.6% /
30.0% |
20.0% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
37.1% /
57.9% |
20.0% /
21.1% |
2.9 /
3.4 |
70 /
49 |
46.0% /
45.9% |
42.9% /
40.8% |
28.0% /
24.4% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
38.8% |
28.6 /
25.4 |
| 14 |
PHI |
29 – 23 W |
3.1 |
57.9% /
52.9% |
5.3% /
5.9% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
6.5 |
50.0% /
21.4% |
27.8% /
42.9% |
3.9 /
2.4 |
93 /
48 |
54.8% /
50.0% |
54.8% /
43.8% |
38.0% /
45.7% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
1.1% /
2.1% |
38.7% /
29.2% |
22.6 /
36.4 |
New Orleans Saints
@ 
Dallas Cowboys