New Orleans Saints @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Nov 1
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Chicago Bears +4.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Lean Under (43.5) – New Orleans (-4.5) vs CHICAGO

The narrative surrounding the decline of Drew Brees has been overstated a bit. Brees is averaging 7.1 yppp, which is right around his career mark, despite not having Michael Thomas for all but one game. The status of Thomas is unknown this week, but he’s worth at least a point to this Saints offense with Emmanuel Sanders on the COVID-19 list.

I don’t think Nick Foles is the problem for Chicago’s offense. Foles was sacked four times and pressured on nearly half his dropbacks last week. The Bears offensive line ranks 27th in pass blocking efficiency and Matt Nagy is not scheming players open for Foles either. Foles has thrown a league-high 23% of his passes into tight windows despite only ranking around league average in depth of target. Foles’ top target Allen Robinson is in concussion protocol and faces a difficult matchup across from Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore even if he does suit up. There is expected to be 20 mph winds at Soldier Field on Sunday and I don’t think this will be the week we see Chicago’s passing game turn it around.

Our model favors the Saints by just 1.8 points, with a predicted total of 41.5 points assuming Thomas and Sanders don’t play.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Bears
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.0 37.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.6% 53.1%
  • Sack Rate 2.8% 6.0%
  • Int Rate 0.9% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 11.1% 20.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 31.6% 40.2%
  • NYPP 7.1 6.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.3 29.0
  • RB YPR 4.8 3.4
  • Stuff Rate 19.3% 30.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 55.9% 46.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 37.8% 44.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 3.5




Game

  • All Snaps 60.3 66.7
  • Early Down Succ 53.0% 50.1%
  • Succ Rate 51.3% 50.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 33.2% 41.7%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.6 29.1
  • Run Ratio 39.8% 43.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.4 26.3
  • Game Control 1.4 -1.4
 
  • Points 29.3 31.3
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