Game Analysis
Lean Under (43.5) – New Orleans (-4.5) vs CHICAGO
The narrative surrounding the decline of Drew Brees has been overstated a bit. Brees is averaging 7.1 yppp, which is right around his career mark, despite not having Michael Thomas for all but one game. The status of Thomas is unknown this week, but he’s worth at least a point to this Saints offense with Emmanuel Sanders on the COVID-19 list.
I don’t think Nick Foles is the problem for Chicago’s offense. Foles was sacked four times and pressured on nearly half his dropbacks last week. The Bears offensive line ranks 27th in pass blocking efficiency and Matt Nagy is not scheming players open for Foles either. Foles has thrown a league-high 23% of his passes into tight windows despite only ranking around league average in depth of target. Foles’ top target Allen Robinson is in concussion protocol and faces a difficult matchup across from Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore even if he does suit up. There is expected to be 20 mph winds at Soldier Field on Sunday and I don’t think this will be the week we see Chicago’s passing game turn it around.
Our model favors the Saints by just 1.8 points, with a predicted total of 41.5 points assuming Thomas and Sanders don’t play.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
37.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
53.1%
-
Sack Rate
2.8%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
0.9%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
11.1%
20.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.6%
40.2%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.3
29.0
-
RB YPR
4.8
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
19.3%
30.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
55.9%
46.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.8%
44.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
60.3
66.7
-
Early Down Succ
53.0%
50.1%
-
Succ Rate
51.3%
50.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.2%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
29.1
-
Run Ratio
39.8%
43.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.4
26.3
-
Game Control
1.4
-1.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.7
42.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.0%
44.8%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
5.5%
-
Int Rate
3.7%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
28.7%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.2%
40.2%
-
NYPP
5.6
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
24.0
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
19.0%
16.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.4%
46.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.8%
55.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
69.0
66.3
-
Early Down Succ
51.3%
49.3%
-
Succ Rate
48.3%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.6%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
24.5
-
Run Ratio
41.7%
35.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.3
28.7
-
Game Control
-1.8
1.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TB |
34 – 23 W |
6.1 |
40.6% / 46.2% |
3.1% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
5.9 / 5.7 |
44.1% / 50.0% |
32.4% / 23.1% |
2.4 / 3.3 |
66 / 65 |
46.9% / 49.0% |
42.4% / 47.7% |
35.8% / 39.0% |
4.1 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
51.5% / 40.0% |
41.8 / 18.1 |
2 |
@LV |
24 – 34 L |
-0.3 |
55.3% / 58.5% |
0.0% / 7.3% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 6.3 |
73.7% / 40.0% |
10.5% / 40.0% |
5.9 / 3.3 |
57 / 76 |
60.9% / 45.6% |
61.4% / 50.0% |
30.4% / 35.2% |
7.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
33.3% / 46.1% |
26.6 / 26.9 |
3 |
GB |
30 – 37 L |
-1.6 |
50.0% / 54.5% |
5.3% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.2 / 8.2 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
15.0% / 26.9% |
6.1 / 3.8 |
58 / 59 |
51.1% / 55.6% |
50.0% / 52.5% |
33.2% / 50.9% |
6.8 / 6.3 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
34.5% / 44.1% |
28.9 / 33.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DET |
27 – 23 W |
-5.9 |
45.9% / 51.2% |
2.7% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.8 / 6.7 |
60.7% / 44.8% |
14.3% / 13.8% |
5.3 / 4.8 |
65 / 72 |
59.6% / 52.7% |
52.3% / 48.6% |
35.8% / 50.2% |
5.6 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 40.3% |
29.0 / 27.0 |
2 |
NYG |
17 – 13 W |
9.1 |
46.9% / 43.2% |
12.5% / 9.1% |
7.1% / 2.5% |
5.3 / 5.0 |
40.6% / 50.0% |
18.8% / 22.2% |
4.2 / 4.2 |
64 / 62 |
38.3% / 50.0% |
43.8% / 45.2% |
30.9% / 32.5% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
50.0% / 29.0% |
29.1 / 29.2 |
3 |
@ATL |
30 – 26 W |
-8.6 |
45.3% / 40.0% |
3.8% / 5.0% |
3.9% / 2.6% |
5.8 / 5.7 |
56.0% / 44.0% |
24.0% / 12.0% |
5.2 / 5.8 |
78 / 65 |
55.9% / 45.1% |
48.7% / 41.5% |
51.9% / 53.1% |
5.6 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.1% / 38.5% |
32.8 / 29.9 |